WTI 原油预测跌至 40 美元

Christina has a host of questions about the Strait. We're going to get into all of that in a minute, but I want to go to your your most recent note. You talk about the super abundance trends in the Western Hemisphere and the major reversion that perhaps we were looking at in the second half of the year. Here you're forecasting or expect we might get to $40 a barrel, and I explain how we could get there. Yes. Well, hello.

The key way we get there is by pumping prices up too much and it accelerates the process of superabundance in the Western Hemisphere, most notably us. As of right now, the US and Canada are running a surplus and supply versus demand in crude oil and liquid fuels around 7 million barrels a day. If prices don't go lower to shut that off, we'll probably get a head towards 10 million barrels a day by 2028. It's not just crude oil.

We have to export our corn, soybeans and wheat. It's a wonderful thing of superabundance. It's just bad for prices. And what I think we just did is we we accelerated that process with prices going up. And it has inklings very much of 2008. Crude oil peaked at 147 and by the end of the year was around 40. We are doing that right now, and I just give you one example. At the beginning of the year we had pumps and then dumps and just Bitcoin and natural gas.

And now that list includes gold, silver, platinum, palladium, iron ore, corn and potentially U.S. Treasury bond yields. So the key theme is right now for the second half of the year, I think all those prices are going to continue to go lower. Okay. But this is where as a foreign policy nerd versus a finance nerd, I get annoyed because the traffic in the street is hardly back to pre-war levels. So why are we seeing this confidence in the oil markets that these prices are going down?

Why is it dropping so surely when the reality on the ground isn't really reflecting that yet? Because we're finding out the one of the most significant bull markets in commodities is increasing elasticity. When prices go up, markets find ways around it. We're finding out that, um, OPEC is becoming increasingly redundant now the UAE has left. so they're going to be drilling it well. Iraq has threatened to leave. They want to drill well.

So what's happened is it accelerated Mr. Trump's mantra a drill. Well, a drill that will and a global basis. Now that includes Venezuela, the US, Canada, UAE, um, Iraq potentially. So it's what's happening in the space. And what was before the problem was the key thing to remember is technology is bad for prices, and crude oil on both sides of supply and demand is creating more supply and reducing demand. And this event, just like it did in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, just adds fuel to those trends.

So I look at it as, yes, we might bounce, there might be need something really bad to happen in the Gulf. Maybe crude oil gets near 80, but on a normal cycle it goes back to 40. And one key thing to remember is almost every time you have swings in crude oil, what happens with the stock market going down? We have volatility picking up everywhere. The stock market just prices are still hovering at those levels. So if we get a little dip for a normal midterm year, that means everything goes down.

Crude oil and copper are kind of next on the list in commodities. It's adding fuel to those charges. What he did there, that's adding a little bit of a oil palm oil energy. But um, I want to ask you about the president's comments on gasoline prices. In specifics of this week. He raised the price, which was getting $2.50 a gallon gasoline once again. He's also had a very strong message to the gas companies, the gasoline companies, the energy companies themselves just play a little bit of what the president has said.

Uh, the anger, the anger that he's directing at those gas companies. We are not seeing anything at the pump. By comparison to what it should be, we should be, in my opinion, at $2.25, Exxon Mobil. It's Chevron, it's, uh, shell, it's, um, BP. They're not reducing the prices commensurate with, uh. What what's happening? We are doing a big investigation. Um, like, I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you would say we don't have to do a big investigation on this.

Why aren't gas prices lower as we see oil prices dropping? Well, if he wants to do investigation, he should start with futures traders because those retail prices are spot on with the wholesale gasoline prices are going lower. He's right. But there's much more of a lag. Remember that's retail. It's on the street. What you pay and then what we deal with crude oil. That's wholesale. The key thing though is I think he's right.

Prices will go back down to where they were before the war. But now we're in summer driving season. That's when prices are typically high. So by the time we get to the midterms, before the invasion and before the war in Iran, prices, the average price in the US is right around $2.90 a gallon. Right now it's $3.90. I think we go back down to $2.90. The key thing to remember, though, is every single time we've made those lows below two have coincided with a little bit of problem in the stock market.

And that's what I really worry about for the second half of the year. I think he's going to get those lower prices. But if it comes in the back of a stock market, that is a potential thing he's not going to want for the midterms. Mike, I also want to ask you about my favorite subject, which is gold. I feel like it's had an interesting six month run. And earlier this week, it dipped below 4000 an ounce for the first time since last November after gaining for quite a few months in a row.

Silver's also dropping. Do we know why and what happens if interest rates go up this year? How is that going to impact the prices? Well, that's part of the reason gold's starting to go back down. It was very precedent for the war. It peaked right before the war. But the problem with gold, silver and most notably precious metals is they just went up too much at the beginning of the year. Gold was reached its highest, um, ever versus a Bloomberg commodity index is a 40 year high versus its 16 month moving average, and most significantly, versus a Treasury market, the Treasury bond market.

It's right now the lowest. Our treasuries are about the lowest. And almost since 1980s, early 80s versus gold. So to me, go put in a pretty significant high back in Q1 and is probably going to be stuck in a range for years. That's usually how it works. The significance is, though, it just went up too much. And then everything you remember about prices and gold and certainly, um, silver is um, you're supposed to be selling when the.

Yeah. My folks, my jewelry. I'm sorry. David. Go ahead. No, Mike. Very quickly here, our boss has said Mike McGlone can talk about anything. He's an expert on so many things. You freights a rhetorical question in your piece, which is, what does the United States want when it comes to the energy prices? And I'm going to give you a 30 or 45 seconds to answer that. If you kind of try to analyze the psychology of him vis a vis the energy market, what's what's the answer?

Well, that's been my key theme all along. My prices will not stay up. They will go down because he is the leader of the world's largest energy producer exporter, and he needs prices to go down, partly because inflation is the number one issue and affordability is number one. Issues in elections will.