标普500止步四连跌，科技基金单周流出93亿美元

The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. This is the close. An insanely volatile week for stocks comes to an insanely volatile end. Live in studio two here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. I'm Romaine Bostick and I'm Katie Grice, and we're kicking off to the closing bell here in the US. And here's the finish, the S&P 500 with an hour to go down by about 2/10 of a percent. We are going to break a weekly win streak when it comes to the big benchmark. Looking to finish the week lower. A lot of that coming back to chip stocks actually saw those blowout earnings from a micron earlier in the week. But chip stocks one of your biggest decliners on the day. And you can see that in the Nasdaq 100 off by more than 1% at this moment. A little bit of a rally continuing in the bond market though ten year Treasury yields down two basis points. We are now below 440 when it comes to that benchmark ten year yield. And I wanted to highlight Brent, even though you have the president of the United States saying that Iran has violated the ceasefire. You still see Brent sliding by 4.7%. Excited to dig into that today, Roman. Yeah, a big drop in crude on the day and on the weekend. A volatile, volatile week for chip stocks depending on how you measure it. It's going to go down is the second or third most volatile in about a year based off last Friday's closing price and the intraday highs and lows of this week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has swung roughly ten percentage points, with volume above the year to date average in each of the trading sessions. The spread between single stock implied vol and index volatility that remains right around those recent highs. And then you have that differentiation between winners and losers around the IE cycle widening out. And that really is the big takeaway from this week, a week in which we saw both extreme selling and extreme buying with a net effect. Net outflows. Bank of America saying this was the first week since March that investors pooled money from U.S. equities, and that includes a record $9.3 billion in outflows from technology funds, a reversal from the previous week, when those funds drew in an unprecedented $19.2 billion in inflows. Now, this week shows that the easy days of the AI boom may be behind US cities strategists say way too premature to call for the end of the AI trade. And they think equities are likely to keep churning higher as corporate earnings remain strong. Liquidity stays ample, not to mention the macro backdrop, which has actually gone from stable to slightly improving as consumer sentiment rebounds off the lows and oil prices. Round trip Katie to those prewar levels from February. A lot to put together, a lot to keep track of when it comes to the fundamentals. Let's take a look at the technicals. Just for good measure. We have the S&P 500 behind me in yellow. Here you have the 50 day moving average of the index. You can see uh initially broke below that rate when the war with Iran kicked off at the end of February. gapped above it in April. And then take a look at the breakdown that we're talking about right now. We got pretty close towards the beginning of the month, but now it looks like we are going to close below that 50 day moving average for the S&P 500 today remains. So it's going to be interesting to see whether this portends more losses to come or whether or not this will maybe act as a support line, maybe going to trigger some buying signals here as we continue to watch some of the fall out of that eye trade. Absolutely. And it really kind of puts not only the trade of the eye side into this, but really the broader trade across across assets. And with that macro drop shifting. Who better to talk to them?

Sandy Beschloss, founder and CEO over at Rock Creek, and of course, former chief investment officer at the world Bank, a lifetime on Wall Street and everything in between. And that's why I want to start with you off, Sandy. I mean, we got some economic data, at least here in the U.S. that shows GDP is holding up, inflation certainly rising, but so too is consumer spending. And I am curious that given everything that's transpired with regards to the drop in oil prices and maybe the resolution of the situation in the Middle East. Are you more optimistic about that macro backdrop, or should we still be worried?

I think at the macro backdrop in general, things sounded better this week. And as the, um, news on the Hormuz straight and on the war came in. Obviously those are good for reducing inflation in terms of having less volatility in the markets over time. That's all positive. The other side of it though, Ramin, is that um, we saw the fed has over the last ten days become much more hawkish. So that generally if the fed does implement that or execute on that. Not necessarily great for equity markets and um, and the rest of what's going on on the macro front, obviously in terms of geopolitics continues to be Relatively strained. Whether we're looking at U.S., China, whether we're looking at, you know, the drones that came down today. So I think while some of the macro news may be on the positive side, I would still be very careful. On the other, the big story, of course, this week was what we saw in the eye trade. Obviously great earnings out of micron. But still some concerns about whether this growth rate that we've gotten used to with some of these names can actually be sustained. And I'm curious particularly not only your own opinion, but from where you sit and just being able to talk to so many, uh, institutions, are they still relatively bullish on the long term artificial intelligence trade?

And no question, I think we're going through a transformative change in the economy. Um, the I was one of our senior advisor says this book out this week, literally 1873, that talks about how the infrastructure and railroads got built in this country. So I'm the one hand, the AI infrastructure is going to continue to be huge. That will cause a lot of stocks to go up. However, it doesn't mean every single stock and infrastructure, whether it's data centers, whether it is certain kinds of things that we've seen go up, like the hyperscalers will continue to go up. We saw prices of certain components go up, which led to the increase in prices of iPads and other Apple products. We'll see more of that. But that does not mean that certain stocks in the eye sector will not do well, particularly around the hardware around. Yeah. Uh, sector. Yeah. And that seems to be, uh, an idea that's coming through that you really have to be selective when it comes to the eye trade. It's not just a blanket bias, maybe. Uh, it has been at moments in the past several years here, but I would love to get your thoughts on some comments that we heard from Abby Joseph Cohen. She joined Bloomberg Money earlier today talking about how basically things are priced to perfection right now. When you take a look at valuations. That's something that should worry investors. So when you look at where we stand on the S&P 500 were around 20 times estimated earnings, a little bit higher when it comes to the Nasdaq 100. I mean how do you factor that into your overall view on equities right now?

I always listen to Abby very carefully and generally agree with her. I think she's absolutely right. But at the same time, I think the reason I think we are in a period where, as you said, we have to be much more selective and look at active management versus passive management is with the same backdrop that you just described and Abby has been talking about. We can still be very selective, seeing huge, huge gains in certain stocks and not just in the US but outside of the US. We've seen what's happened in Korea. We've seen what's happened in Taiwan over the last six months. We'll talk to us a little bit about those markets, because certainly you've seen quite a tear when it comes to both of