美军空袭伊朗设施回应霍尔木兹海峡袭击

>> THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER, LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.. >> BREAKING TONIGHT. CEASEFIRE VIOLATED. AMERICAN FORCES HIT IRANIAN STORAGE SITES AND COASTAL RADAR LOCATIONS IN RESPONSE TO TEHRAN'S ATTACK ON A COMMERCIAL SHIP IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE STRIKE RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DURABILITY OF THE CEASEFIRE AND WEATHER TRAFFIC AND ENERGY FLOWS CAN SAFELY RESUME. AI ON THE BALLOT. DRIVEN BY A FLOOD OF SILICON VALLEY CASH, ARCTIC FOR -- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST FORCES IN THE ELECTIONS. AI'S GROWING PRESENCE IN POLITICS AND THE BACKLASH. CAPITAL TIME CAPSULE. AS AMERICANS PREPARE TO MARK THE NATIONS'S 250TH BIRTHDAY, CONGRESS IS SENDING A MESSAGE TO THE FUTURE WITH A TIME CAPSULE SEALED FOR THE NEXT 250 YEARS. WE TAKE YOU INSIDE THE DEDICATION ON CAPITOL HILL. WELCOME TO BALANCE OF POWER. I'M KAILEY LEINZ. ALONGSIDE JOE MATHIEU. JOE: BREAKING FROM U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND. AMERICAN FORCES HAVE CONDUCTED STRIKES IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S ATTACK ON A COMMERCIAL SHIP TRANSITING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE PRESIDENT WAS ASKED ABOUT THE U.S. RESPONSE AND HERE'S WHAT HE TOLD REPORTERS. >> I DON'T LIKE THE FACT THAT THEY TOOK A SHOT YESTERDAY. AND A SHIP. NOT AN ALLIED SHIP BUT A SHIP, A VERY EXPENSIVE SHIP. IT WAS FINE BUT IT TOOK A BEATING. THEY SHOULDN'T BE DOING THAT. YOU WILL FIND OUT. JOE: JOINING US NOW WITH THE LATEST FROM THE WHITE HOUSE IS SCOTT OR WOODHOUSE. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US AS THE NEWS BREAKS HERE. SHOULD WE ASSUME THIS IS ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL OR COULD IT BE AN END TO THE CEASE-FIRE?

>> LOTS OF QUESTIONS RAISED RIGHT NOW AS WE TRY TO DISSECT WHAT THE STRIKES MEAN AND IF THIS MEANS THAT THE CEASE-FIRE IS OVER. ARE WE EXPECTING THE WAR TO THEN GO BACK TO WHAT IT ONCE WAS?

LOTS OF QUESTIONS BEING RAISED AS THE CEASE-FIRE HAS BEEN PRETTY FRAGILE. EVEN THROUGHOUT THE NEGOTIATIONS, THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF SHAKINESS THROUGHOUT THE TALKS. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE STRIKES, IT'S RAISING QUESTIONS ON WHAT COMES NEXT. IS A GOING TO HIT BACK AGAIN?

WILL THE U.S. RETALIATE AGAIN? SHOULD THERE BE MORE STRIKES? ALL THINGS WE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT RIGHT THIS MOMENT. KAILEY: CONSIDER THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS. ARE THERE ANY FURTHER HIGH-LEVEL TALKS ON THE BOOKS THAT WE ARE AWARE OF?

SKYLAR: YEAH. WE'VE BEEN HEARING THINGS. THE PRESIDENT WILL SAY THAT THERE ARE CONVERSATIONS HAPPENING ALL THE TIME. WE'VE BEEN TRACKING SOME MEETINGS WITH SECRETARY RUBIO ON WHEN THOSE POTENTIAL NEXT TALKS COULD BE. BUT NOTHING DEFINITIVE RIGHT NOW. AT LEAST IN TERMS OF WHAT IT MEANS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SCHEDULE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT KIND OF MEETINGS HE HOLDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND WHAT KIND OF PHONE CALLS HE'S HEADING -- HAVING WITH LEADERS IN THE REGION. KAILEY: JOINING US NOW IS AMBASSADOR JULIANNE SMITH. WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. OBVIOUSLY CENTRAL COMMAND SAYS THAT THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ATTACK CONDUCTED BY IRAN. HOW QUICKLY COULD SOMETHING THAT THEY VIEW AS A PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE TURN ESCALATORY?

>> THAT'S ALWAYS THE RISK. THIS CEASE-FIRE, AS WE JUST HEARD FROM THE REPORTER IS AND HAS BEEN QUITE FRAGILE. IT WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY VAGUE ABOUT THE DEGREE TO WHICH A RAINY AND GOVERNMENT WOULD PROVIDE FOR SAFE PASSAGE. THAT VAGUE LANGUAGE ACTUALLY CREATED THIS MOMENT IN THAT THE IRANIANS FELT LIKE THEY DIDN'T COMMIT TO THE 100% SAFE PASSAGE OF COMMERCIAL SHIPS. NOW WE ARE SEEING INSTANCES WHERE SOMEONE IS FIRING SHOTS OR DRONES AT THE SHIPS. SO WE HAD TWO QUESTIONS. HOW WILL THE WHITE HOUSE RESPOND?

THERE WERE STRIKES IMPLEMENTED BY SANS COM. ALSO, WHAT DOES INDUSTRY DO? IS INDUSTRY GOING TO HOLD BACK? WILL COMPANIES DECIDE NOT TO SEND ANY MORE SHIPS? WHAT WILL THE IRANIANS DO?

WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST THAT THEY COULD OPT TO TAKE ACTION WITHIN HOURS OR DAYS. WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON STANDBY. JOE: THE INDUSTRY COULD HAVE SOME SORT OF SELF-IMPOSED BLOCKADE I SUPPOSE. IT COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH HEADLINES LIKE THESE TO GET INSURANCE ON TRANSITING THE STRAIT FOR MANY OF THESE CARGO VESSELS. IN YOUR TIME IN DIPLOMACY, HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF THINGS LIKE THIS?

>> WE'VE SEEN MANY MOMENTS THROUGHOUT HISTORY WHERE SOMETHING IS SIGNED ON PAPER AND EVERYONE IS MOTIVATED TO GET TO A PROPER CEASE-FIRE. BUT THEN FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER, SOMETIMES ACTORS IN IRAN, THERE COULD BE A CASE WHERE THE SUPREME LEADER HIMSELF IS MOTIVATED TO BRING ABOUT THE CEASE-FIRE. BUT HE'S GOT ACTORS ON THE INSIDE WITH THE IRC G THAT BASICALLY ARE MOTIVATED NOT TO ADHERE TO THE CEASE-FIRE. SO IT'S NOT UNCOMMON FOR THINGS LIKE THIS TO HAPPEN. BUT LET'S BE CLEAR. THE WORDING IN THE MOU WAS A LITTLE BIT VAGUE. I THINK THAT WINDOW LEFT OPEN THE PROSPECT FOR THESE TIT-FOR-TAT'S. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTUALLY SPIRALS INTO SOMETHING BIGGER OR PERHAPS AS WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS, THIS IS ONE OR TWO INCIDENTS AND THEN IT'S TAMPED DOWN AGAIN. RIGHT NOW, THERE'S A MOTIVATION ON BOTH SIDES BY THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN TO SEE THIS THROUGH. I HOPE IT WON'T ESCALATE IN THE WEEKS TO COME. KAILEY: NOT TO TURN YOU INTO A FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST. DID YOU THINK THE MARKET IS INTERPRETING THIS THE CORRECT WAY?

OIL PRICES MOVING LOWER ONCE AGAIN EVEN IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE DRONE STRIKE. ARE THEY RIGHT TO EXPECT THAT ENERGY IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO FLOW? >> IT'S INTERESTING. THE MARKET HAS BEEN QUITE STEADY. I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE SEEN SO MUCH ACTIVITY IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. THEY ARE CAREFUL NOT TO OVERREACT. I THINK INDUSTRY WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY. YOU WILL SEE SOME CAUTION ON THE PART OF THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR. I THINK AFTER THIS STRIKE THAT WE JUST SAW YESTERDAY, YOU WILL SEE COMPANIES MAKING THE DECISION TO HOLD BACK. THEY WILL WANT TO WAIT TO SEE HOW IRAN RESPONDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ENSURE THAT WE ARE NOT OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN. I THINK THE MARKET RESPONSE WAS A GOOD ONE. STEADY AS SHE GOES. I JUST HOPE THAT WE REACH A POINT WHERE WE CAN INVEST IN MORE DIPLOMACY TO SEE THIS THROUGH AND NOT SEE IT ALL UNRAVELED SO THAT WE HAVE TO START AGAIN. JOE: ARE IRAN'S ACTIONS SELF-DEFEATING HERE?

THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT THE LONGER THIS GOES ON, GOVERNMENTS IN THE REGION AND COMPANIES WORKING IN THE INDUSTRY ARE DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO MAKE THE STRAIT IRRELEVANT. WE TALKED ABOUT THIS EARLIER WITH MARK MONTGOMERY WHO HAS SPENT A LOT OF TIME IN THE REGION. HERE'S WHAT HE HAD TO SAY. >> THE SAUDI'S WILL BUILD THE SECOND CROSS PENINSULA FROM EAST TO WEST PIPELINE. AS IS THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. THEY ARE NOT LIMITED BUYING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENTS AND OSHA AND EPA. THEY WILL BE BILLED FAST. ONCE THEY DO IT, IN A WEIRD WAY BY THIS OVERPLAYED BY IRAN, THEY ARE FRITTERING AWAY THEIR LEVERAGE. THE LEVERAGE WILL EXPIRE WHEN MORE PIPELINES ARE COMPLETE. >> COULD WE END UP IN A WORLD WHERE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS SIMPLY NOT IS CRITICAL?

>> YEAH. HONESTLY WE ARE ON OUR WAY. MARK MAKES A REALLY GOOD POINT THERE. LOOK, TRADE AND ENERGY FLOWS DON'T STOP FOR ANYTHING. THEY DON'T WANT TO STOP FOR WARS. THEY DON'T WANT TO STOP FOR HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC NEGOTIATIONS. IN A COMPANY'S PERSPECTIVE, THOSE FLOWS HAVE TO CONTINUE. IF THEY CANNOT RELY ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THEY ARE NATURALLY GOING TO LOOK AT ALTERNATIVES. AS MARK NOTED, ALTERNATIVES ARE BEING PURSUED AND BUILT IN REAL-TIME. SO EVEN IF THE MOU LEADS TO A CEASE-FIRE, I THINK WE ARE FACING A SITUATION WHERE IRAN WILL LOOK BACK ON WHAT'S TRANSPIRED IN 2026 AND UNDERSTAND THAT FUNDAMENTALLY HOW THE WORLD LOOKS AT THE STRAIT HAS FURTHER CHANGED. I THINK THERE'S NO DENYING THAT. INCREASINGLY, NATIONS IN THE REGION AND COMPANIES IN THE REGION ARE GOING TO SUCCEED IN FINDING SOME ALTERNATIVES. I'M NOT SAYING THAT THE STRAIT WILL DISAPPEAR AND BECOME IRRELEVANT ENTIRELY. YOU ARE RIGHT TO RAISE THE QUESTION ABOUT COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES FINDING WAYS TO MAKE IT MORE OR LESS -- MAKE IT LESS RELEVANT. KAILEY: I'D LIKE TO ASK YOU ABOUT A DIFFERENT SET OF COUNTRIES IN THE NATO ALLIANCE. THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OBVIOUSLY WAS IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK, INCLUSIV