美国非农前瞻：就业韧性或促美联储提前加息

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This is Bloomberg Daybreak [music] Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. [music] Straight ahead on the program, we look to some key jobs data in the US and how they may affect Fed policy moving forward. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington.

I'm Caroline Hepker in London, where we're asking if this year's Wimbledon tournament can serve up an ace.

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Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the US. On Thursday, we get nonfarm payroll numbers for the month of June at 8:30 a.m. Wall Street time. The report is coming a day earlier than usual due to the Independence Day observance. Here for a look ahead to the numbers is Edward Harrison, Bloomberg senior strategist and author of the Everything Risk newsletter. Good to have you with us ahead of Jobs Thursday, Ed.

It seems like we've been talking for so long about a low higher low fire labor market. Do you see that shifting ahead of what's to come this week?

Hi Nathan. I think yes, I do see that shifting. This low fire low higher market that we'd seen, I think last month's number broke that streak. We got a 172,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls. We also had upward revisions to the prior months to the point where the three-month average was even higher at 188,000. So, we're looking at almost 200,000 jobs per month being added to nonfarm payrolls over the the last 3 months.

So, do you see that trajectory continuing? I mean, 200,000 on average sounds like more of a steady labor environment than than we've seen lately.

It definitely does seem that way. Now, Bloom the average economist in in Bloomberg consensus survey says around 135 added, but even if you have 135, that's you know, 50,000 lower than the average that we had before, you're really still looking if we get that number at around 150, 160,000 jobs per month for the last 3 months. And and that's very good. And and the unemployment rate would be at a 4.3%. What that says is we do have a an improvement in the labor market in the US.

What do you see underpinning that improvement when, you know, so many economists leading into these nonfarm payrolls reports month in and month out have sort of been surprised by the resilience in the labor market?

Well, you know, I think that the resilience in personal income and spending has been a big part of that. If you looked at the numbers that came in last week, we saw that personal spending was up 0.7% month on month. That was above expectations. Personal income was also up 0.7% above expectations. Of course, that brings inflation with it because the headline PCE price index increased by 4.1%. You know, over 4%. That's like double the the the Fed's target in in the year to to May, but irrespective, you know, you you've got income and spending underpinning the ability for jobs to continue.

Do you see wages keeping up with the the pressures that we continue to see in prices like that Fed preferred inflation gauge that you just mentioned?

Yeah, I think that the closer that we get to full employment, the more chance that you're going to see wages increasing. I the number that we saw in the last month, that is in May survey, was 3.4% for average hourly earnings year-on-year. Economists are expecting 3.5%. So, they're expecting that to go up and and that's going to give people the wherewithal to a certain degree to deal with the inflation that we've seen over the last year.

And, you know, with all those factors in place, it sounds as though the bias that we heard from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh earlier this month toward reining in inflation might be justified here. What's your expectation when it comes to the Fed potentially trying to rein in some of these increases that we're talking about with a hike?

I think that the Fed is going to hike this year. The market has sort of backed off what it's thinking in terms of hikes. We have the market expecting at least one hike this year, not two hikes. The first date in which they expect a hike is in October. So, that's three Fed meetings from now. We have July, September, and October. I would say that the likelihood that they do hike, given what we've seen in the inflation picture, is is sooner than the market expects.

And, depending upon how this jobs number comes out, we could see then, you know, jobs doing very well, inflation being high, uh especially core inflation, and those two leading the market to start pricing in an earlier rate hike and potentially two hikes in 2026.

Really appreciate this and again, thanks for coming on with us ahead of jobs Thursday. That's Edward Harrison, Bloomberg senior strategist and author of the everything risk newsletter. Let's take a look now at some stocks making news in the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager, joined by Kristina Aquino, managing editor for Bloomberg Markets Live on a week when we're going to hear from a few more companies reporting earnings as we wind down the season, Christina.

A few household names this week including Nike on Tuesday. Are investors finally going to hear the turnaround is swooshing upward for a change?

I see what you did there, Nathan. And yes, that is definitely the hope. Very interesting though, because they announced a leadership change shortly before the earnings results, which are due on the 30th of June. So, apparently David Denton will take over CFO in August. And interestingly, he is not an insider. He hasn't been a career employee at Nike. He's actually moving from Pfizer and has done similar stints at Lowe's and CVS as well.

So, that's quite interesting, bringing in outsider rather than someone who's familiar with the business and familiar with a turnaround plan. So,

Obviously, a pretty big change from bringing in a former insider to be the CEO. So, what kind of fresh blood or fresh look at the company could we expect once they report earnings this week?

Yeah, I mean, that is the big question, isn't it, Nathan? That's something that investors and analysts will definitely note. I mean, Citigroup analysts noting that it is quite surprising that they're doing this just ahead of those fourth-quarter results, especially because the company is still under immense pressure to really show the results of this turnaround plan. The stock price is still hovering at around the lowest since 2014 and investor confidence is a little bit still at the lows, but you know, maybe fresh blood might be just what the company needs for a bit of a turnaround here, but we'll find out more when they give us the details next week.

Absolutely. Also on Tuesday, we're going to get results from Constellation Brands after the bell. It's been a tough time for the beer and wine business. Are we going to be able to raise a glass to these results?

I mean, based on the assessment from Jefferies analyst, there's still a lot of caution on that front, Nathan. I mean, they're worried about just the overall trend of declining alcohol consumption trends in the US because, you know, the younger generation don't drink as much anymore. I don't know what's up with that.

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But that's definitely something that is a bit of a negative for Constellation Brands. Jefferies in particular still expecting the company to reiterate those organic sales around minus 1% to plus 1%, but one silver lining is they do have strong ad spending for the World Cup, but then that also cuts into their earnings margin. So, we'll see if that pays off when we get those

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