美国非农数据前瞻：就业市场韧性或影响美联储政策

The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand, but by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced cost by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now, we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. >> When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For mid-size and large companies, that isn't always easy. Risk can touch multiple parts of an organization at the same time, often in ways that aren't immediately obvious. It might involve property, liability, or cyber. It could stem from regulatory requirements or challenges tied to a specific industry or the scale of an operation. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline, not a one-time decision. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. That means working with companies to identify where they're exposed, decide what matters most, and put practical standards in place so risk is managed as part of day-to-day operations. And when losses do happen, the Hartford can pair that risk control work with insurance coverage grounded in underwriting, risk engineering, and claims experience developed over time. Learn more at the hartford.com/riskmmitigation. >> This dog salon operational excellence thanks to Genius from Global Payments. Scheduling personalized checkouts instant. Absolutely genius. Big league reliability for any business. That's genius. >> Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look to some key jobs data in the US and how they may affect Fed policy moving forward. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. >> I'm Caroline Hipka in London where we're asking if this year's Wimbledon tournament can serve up an ace. >> I'm Doug Krer looking at the balance of growth and inflation for Vietnam's economy. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the US. On Thursday, we get non-farm payroll numbers for the month of June at 8:30 a.m. Wall Street time. The report is coming a day earlier than usual uh due to the Independence Day observance. Here for a look ahead to the numbers is Edward Harrison, Bloomberg senior strategist and author of the Everything Risk Newsletter. Good to have you with us ahead of jobs Thursday, Ed, but it seems like we've been talking for so long about a low higher low fire labor market. Do you see that shifting ahead of what's to come this week?

>> Hi Nathan. I think yes, I do see that shifting. This uh low, fire, low, higher market that we'd seen. I think last month's number broke that streak. Uh we got a 172,000 jobs added to non-form payrolls. We also uh had upward revisions to the prior month to the point where the 3-month average was even higher at 188,000. So, we're looking at almost 200,000 jobs per month being added to non-farm payrolls over the the last 3 months. >> So, do you see that trajectory continuing?

I mean, 200,000 on average sounds like more of a steady labor environment than than we've seen lately. >> It definitely does seem that way. Now, Bloom, the average economist in in Bloomberg consensus survey says around 135 added, but even if you have 135, that's, you know, 50,000 lower than the average that we had before, you're really still looking, if we get that number at around 150 160,000 jobs per month for the last 3 months. And and that's very good. Uh and and the unemployment rate would be at a 4.3%. What that says is we do have a an improvement in the labor market in the US. >> What do you see underpinning that improvement when you know so many economists leading into these non-farm payrolls reports month in and month out have sort of been surprised by the resilience in the labor market?

>> Well, you know, I think that the resilience in personal income and spending has been a big part of that. If you looked at the numbers that came in last week, we saw that uh personal spending was up 0.7% month-on-month. That was above expectations. Personal income was also up 0.7% above expectations. Uh, of course, that brings inflation with it because the headline uh PCE price index increased by 4.1%. You know, over 4%. That's like double the the the Fed's target in in the year to uh to May. But irrespective, you know, you you've got income and spending underpinning the ability for uh jobs to continue. >> Do you see wages keeping up with the uh the pressures that we continue to see in prices uh like that Fed preferred inflation gauge that you just mentioned?

Yeah, I think that the closer that we get to full employment uh the more chance that you're going to see uh wages uh increasing. I the number that we saw in the last month that is in May's survey was 3.4% for um average hourly earnings yearon year. Economists are expecting 3.5%. So, they're expecting that to go up and and that's going to give people uh the wherewithal to a certain degree to deal with the uh inflation that we've seen over the last year. >> And you know, with all those factors in place, it sounds as though the bias that we heard from Fed Chair Kevin Worsh earlier this month toward uh reigning in inflation might uh be justified here. uh what's your expectation when it comes to the Fed potentially trying to rein in uh some of these increases that we're talking about uh with a hike. >> Yeah, I think that the the Fed is going to hike this year. Uh the market has sort of backed off what it's thinking in terms of hikes. Uh we have um the market expecting at least one hike this year, not two hikes. Uh the first date in which they expect a hike is in October. So that's three Fed meetings from now. We have July, September, and October. I would say that the likelihood that they do hike given what we've seen in the inflation picture is is uh sooner than than the market expects. And depending upon how this jobs number comes out, we could see then, you know, jobs doing very well, inflation being high, uh especially core inflation and those two leading the market to start pricing in an earlier rate hike and potentially two hikes in 2026. >> Really appreciate this, Ed. Again, thanks for coming on with us ahead of jobs Thursday. That's Edward Harrison, Bloomberg senior strategist and author of the Everything Risk Newsletter. Let's take a look now at some stocks making news in the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager joined by Christina Aino, managing editor for Bloomberg Markets live on a week where we're going to hear from a few more companies reporting earnings as we wind down the season. Christine, a few household names this week, including Nike on Tuesday. Are investors finally going to hear the turnaround is swishing upward for a change?

>> I see what you did there, Nathan. That is definitely the hope. Uh very interesting though because they announced a leadership change uh shortly before the earnings results which are due on the 30th of June. So apparently David Denon will take over as CFO in August. And interestingly he is not an insider. He hasn't been a career uh uh employee at Nike. Uh he's actually moving from Fizer and has done similar stints at Lowe's and CVS as well. So that's quite interesting bringing in an outsider rather than someone who's familiar with the business and familiar with a turnaround plan. So >> obviously a pretty big change from bringing in a former insider to be t