SpaceX回吐IPO涨幅，与特斯拉IPO走势对比

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the equity verse. Today we're going to talk about SpaceX and how it has retraced the IPO gains. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. We put out a video last week when SpaceX launched and one of the things we we talked about a lot is how what often happens when you have IPOs is that there'll be this initial surge in price and then often times um I believe approximately 90% although I'm not 100% sure about that that statistic but I think about 90% of a lot of the IPOs do eventually to eventually trade below where they opened up at. And we talked about that last week. And you know, sure enough, not even a week later, SpaceX gave back all the IPO gains. And so this is the SpaceX chart. There's not really a whole lot to work with. And in fact, this is one of the few times where it might make sense to look at like 4hour charts just because we don't really have a lot of data. But what's remarkable is just how frequently IPOs do this, right?

They go up, there's the initial surge in hype, we give it all back, and then we figure out like what the actual so quote unquote fair value is of of the company. Now, we made a comparison to the Tesla IPO. Now, the first thing I'll say, and I I believe I said in the video back then, is that the market cap of SpaceX at launch, no pun intended, is a lot higher than the market cap of Tesla when it launched. Be that as it may, I still think that SpaceX could be just as disruptive disruptive as Tesla, if not more so eventually. When we were looking at the Tesla launch, we said, "Well, why why compare?

Why make the comparison at all?" Well, they're both run they're both the the CEO of both companies, um founder, well, I guess not of SpaceX, but the person who runs both companies, Elon Musk. When did the IPOs launch?

June, right? you have June 12th of 2026 for SpaceX and for Tesla it was June 29th of 2010. So both run by Elon Musk IPOs that both launched in June. Also the IPOs were launched in June of a midterm year. So 2026 for SpaceX, 2010 for Tesla. So, a lot of of similarities and and the similarities continue in the sense that after Tesla launched um after we had the the the launch here by by Tesla, what happened is we got this move up to the tune from the launch it went up about 60%. Okay, about 60%. Now, what's interesting is from the launch of SpaceX, so if you look at SpaceX, how far did it go up?

About 50%. But again, the market cap's different. It takes exponentially more money to move the market cap of SpaceX than Tesla when they were launched because the market cap of Tesla was just so much lower. A counterpoint to that is the money supply is up a lot from from back then. So while the market caps may be different and they still are different when you adjust for inflation, you know, things do trend up over time. At least good assets trend up over time. So you have SpaceX going up 50% at launch, Tesla going up 60. And then the similarities continue and and we'll talk about where they may eventually differ. after the Tesla IPO, we went below that 4 days later and then we found a low 5 days later and from the high Tesla dropped 50%. Now you look at SpaceX and as measured from the high it's dropped about 34%. And it did it over the course of about four to five days, right?

Maybe a little bit longer. It took six bars, I guess. But there are a lot of similarities between these two launches. Now, here's where it could start to differ. Uh, and and you know, depending on what IPOs you're looking at, they they play out in a very different format or they they play out very differently. Well, essentially what I said is that, you know, to expect the first pop in SpaceX to fade back down to the IPO lows and then from there, you'll likely see SpaceX try to form a low. Now, when you think about every stock, you have to think about the idiosyncratic risk of that stock and the market risk. Let's go see what what was uh the S&P doing. Um let's go see what the S&P 500 was doing back in 2010. Okay?

Because we've obviously made some sort of provided some thoughts about what the S&P might do this year. In 2010, what you'll see is the S&P had a a small correction, very small correction at the very beginning of the year, about a 9% drop. We then had another correction sort of in the middle part of the year. And then we had a large move up from a July low. So from a July low where the July low took out the February low. You see that the July low in 2010 took out the February low. So when you think about how Tesla played out, the low that was formed in July corresponded to the S&P putting in a low and the low for the S&P was a lower low compared to February. And then there was another correction, but it didn't occur until the next year. But you see that?

Look at how and I know the nuances are are you know somewhat tricky but the the low in in the early part of the year the year January February we took out that low in the S&P in late June early July and when we took out that low that is where Tesla bottomed and Tesla never went below that low ever again but one of the reasons it never went below that low ever again is because when you look at the S&P The S&P also actually never went below that low and that's been 16 years ago. Now, where are we today?

Okay, so today the S&P put in a low in March, but the S&P is nowhere near taking out that low, right? So, the idiosyncratic risk is there, but the market risk is a little bit different, right?

because often times there is a larger correction at some point kind of going into the back half of midterm year in 2010 that correction actually occurred uh starting in in late late April early May right that's when we had that like 17% drop and that was after an initial 10% drop in 2026 we had about a 10% drop but we haven't really had a second drop not that. Now if you look at 2014 you'll see something similar. There was a drop at the beginning of the year that was about say 6%. The drop later in the year was about 10. In 2018 the first drop in the beginning of the year of the midterm year was about 12. The second drop later in the year was about 20. And in LA in 2022 you can see the first drop you could argue about 14 15% all the way up to even 24% depending on how far you go. And then the second big drop was about 20% as well. So, I think the argument here is that it's not yet clear if we've had that second drop yet in the S&P 500. And I don't really think we've ha we've had it yet. A lot of times you'll see the S&P find a local top in the second half of the year. Sometimes it could go on until September. In 2018, I believe it was Yeah, it was it was September where the market topped. In 2014, it was also September before you had a larger drop, right?

like you had a very brief pullback into August and then a larger drop later in the year. So I guess the point is is to say as it relates to SpaceX is the market it's not exactly the same setup as 2010. But what I would say is that like 2010 whatever the price ends up doing you could argue that in the back half of the year it was a fairly good accumulation zone for Tesla. even though it didn't move for years and and that's the reality is, you know, it it it obviously looking back on it now, it was a great accumulation zone, but you have to also keep in mind that that spike we had on the IPO launch day, we didn't durably get above that level and not look back until 2 and a half years later. So, I think it would be prudent for people to kind of recognize, hey, this might take a while. And also, you know, we're likely going to see prices stay somewhat suppressed for the rest of the year in alignment with the second half of the year midterm weakness. Now, if the S&P 500 were to drop and say take out the March low or if it were to get even bigger drop and say drop li