美光业绩引爆AI热潮,SK海力士宣布290亿美元赴美上市
Micron Revives AI Bets as Oil Slumps | Insight with Haslinda Amin 06/25/2026
美光业绩超预期和SK海力士巨额赴美上市是半导体行业的重大事件,直接影响AI产业链投资逻辑,值得投资者重点关注。
PAUL: LIVE FROM SYDNEY, I'M PAUL ALLEN AND THIS IS "INSIGHT" WHERE WE DIVE DEEPER WITH SHARP INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS. MICRON AFTER A BLOCKBUSTER SALES OUTLOOK RAISES EXPECTATION. THE WAR OUTLOOK EASING PRICES ON STOCKS. THE $HITS A SEVEN-MONTH HIGH PILING PRESSURE ON ASIAN CURRENCIES. WE'LL DISCUSS HOW SOFTER OIL AND THE FEDS' FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE IS SHAPING YIELDS AND RISKS. THE RUPIAH SLIDES RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT INVESTOR CONFIDENCE AS POLICY RISKS BUILD. INDUSTRY CHAIRMAN JOINS US TO DISCUSS WHAT'S AT STAKE. OUR TOP STORY TODAY, THE A.I. CHEER SPREAD AUGUST CROSS ASIA WITH STOCKS RALLYING ALONGSIDE U.S. EQUITY FUTURES AFTER MICRON'S BLOWOUT SALES OUTLOOK REIGNITED CONFIDENCE IN THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TRADE, WITH A SLIDE IN OIL PRICES FURR BOOSTING SENTIMENT. SOUTH KOREA'S S.K. HYNIX AMONG THE BIG GAINERS, THIS AFTER THEY UNVEILED PLANS FOR A $29 BILLION U.S. LISTING. LET'S GO TO OUR EQUITIES REPORTER. HUGE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM S.K. HYNIX TODAY. WHAT ARE EXPECTATIONS AROUND INVESTOR APPETITE FOR THIS?
PAUL, WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS ANNOUNCEMENT ACTUALLY AND IT'S GOING TO TART TRAINING FROM -- TRADING FROM JULY 10. THE MAJOR APPETITE FROM THE INVESTORS IS THAT THEY GET ACCESSIBILITY IN THE OTHER MARKET. S.K. HYNIX HAS ALWAYS BEEN CONSIDERED AS A COMMODITIES STOCK, COMMODITY D-RAM STOCK THAT JUST IS IN KOREA. IT WAS DIFFICULT FOR INVESTORS TO DRAW PARALLELS TO MICRON AND SAN DISK AND OTHER MEMORYMAKERS IN THE U.S. NOW INVESTORS THINK THIS WILL HELP NARROW THE DISCOUNT IN VALUATION. WE'RE LOOK AT 7. TIMES EARNINGS FOR S.K. HYNIX. FOR MICRON AROUND 9.3. SO THERE'S STILL A LITTLE BIT OF CATCH-UP PLAY THE STOCKS CAN PLAY THAT WOULD FURTHER HELP BOOST S.K. HYNIX STOCKS IN KOREA AS WELL. PAUL: WHAT'S THE FLASH THE MONEY S.K. HYNIX WILL RAISE BY DOING THIS?
THE COMPANY SAYS THEY'RE GOING TO BE MAINLY USING THE PROCEEDS TO FUND AND EXPAND THEIR CAPACITY. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE SHORTFALL IN HIGH VALUE MEMORY AND ALL THE MEMORY CHIPS ACROSS THE BOARD. SOME REPORTS SAY UNTIL 2028 BUT THERE'S STILL REALLY NOT A PRECISE NUMBER HERE BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH OF THAT SHORTAGE TO REALLY POWER THESE A.I. DEMAND. SO THAT WILL BE THE MAIN USE OF THESE PROCEEDS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY'RE ALSO LOOKING AT BUYING A LOT OF ULTRA VIOLATE LITHOGRAPHIC MACHINES TO BUILD SOME OF THE MORE ADVANCED CHIPS. AGAIN, S.K. HYNIX DOES HOLD A DOMINANCE IN HIGH VALUE MEMORY. IT HAS ABOUT 58% IN ITS MARKET SHARE WHEN IT COMES TO REVENUES. SO THIS IS WHERE THEIR EDGE IS IN RIGHT NOW. PAUL: IN TERMS OF THE STOCK WE'RE SEEING IT PUT ON ANOTHER DAY OF PHENOMENAL GAIN, NEARLY QUADRUPLED OR SOMETHING LIKE QUADRUPLED. IT'S BEEN AN INCREDIBLE RUN. WHAT ARE ANALYSTS SAYING ABOUT WHERE THE PRICES THIS -- PRICE IS THIS TIME NEXT AREA OR SAY IN FIFE YEARS?
THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. WE HAVE DEFINITELY REPORTED ABOUT S.K. HYNIX ENTERING THE $1 TRILLION MARKET EARLIER AND IT'S ACTUALLY CATCHING UP TO THE MARKET CAP OF SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND AGAIN THIS IS ALSO COMING AT THIS JUNCTURE WHERE THE CHOKE POINT OF THE A.I. DEMAND GLOBALLY IS REALLY POINTING TO THESE THREE STOCKS, S.K. HYNIX, SAMSUNG AND MICRON. INVESTORS ARE SAYING THAT THE LISTING WILL DEFINITELY HELP NARROW NOT JUST VALUATION BUT AGAIN FURTHER BOOST THE S.K. HYNIX STOCKS. WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTING IS A CATCH-UP PLAY TO THE OTHER GLOBAL PEERS. PHILADELPHIA'S SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX IS TRADING AT OVER 22 TIMES EARNINGS. SO THERE'S A LOT OF GAPS THEY CAN CATCH UP ON AND CAPACITY THEY CAN BUILD IN KOREA WILL ADD TO MORE GAINS THAT THE COMPANY CAN IMAGINE. PAUL: THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN FOR SEMICONDUCTORS IS TRADING STRONGLY ACROSS HE REGION AS MICRON'S HIGH IMAGINED GUIDANCE MAKES THE CASE FOR LASTING SUPPLY CRUNCH. CHIP MAKING EQUIPMENT AND OTHERS MAKING GAINS. LET'S GO TO ANTHONY STEPHENS. LET'S START WITH MICRON RESULT, WHAT ARE THEY TELLING US ABOUT THE SUSTAINABILITY AFTER A.I. CAPEX AND THE READ THROUGH IN ASIAN MARKETS?
ANTHONY: THE GUIDANCE SIGNAL IS VERY STRONG. GUIDING AROUND 85% MARGINS. THAT SPEAKS TO A STRUCTURAL SHORTAGE OF MEMORY. YOU DON'T GET TO CHARGE 58% MARGINS FOR COMMODITY PRODUCT AND THAT'S-BY-ING EXPECTATIONS ACROSS THE SUPPLY CHAINS THERES A SHORTAGE OF MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT AND THERE'S A SHORTAGE OF PURE CAPACITY. AS YOU ALLUDED TO EARLIER, S.K. HYNIX CAN RAISE SUCH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND SEE THE STOCK TRADE UP SPEAKS TO INFORMSOR OPTIMISM THAT THAT MONEY WILL BE DEPLOYED IN KOREA TO BUILD OUT CAPACITY AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THAT'S WHY THE ENTIRE SEMICHIP -- YOU'RE SEEING IN JAPAN, IN KOREA, IN TAIWAN, ANYTHING TO DO WITH ENABLING THE GROWTH OF THIS CAPACITY SO IN TERMS OF SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS, THESE NAMES ARE ON FIRE TODAY. THAT'S BEEN VERY SUSTAINABLE. IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT'S BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING STOCKS IN ASIA, ON THE TECH SPACE, IT'S ACTUALLY BEEN SOME OF THESE BOTTLENECK PLAYS IN TAIWAN, IN JAPAN, THAT ARE UP 200%. PAUL: SUCH STRONG INVESTMENT IN A.I. ALSO RAISES THE RISK OF INFLATION. CORE P.C.E.'S ON WATCH TONIGHT. HOW IS THIS SHAPING UP FOR THE DOLLAR TRADE?
ANTHONY: THIS FLOOD OF INVESTMENT IS GOING TO, YOU KNOW, INCREASE WAGES, YOU'VE SEEN THAT IN KOREA. IT'S ONLY LOGICAL TO ASSUME IT'S FLOWING THROUGH IN THE U.S. YOU'RE SEEING AN UPTICK IN CONSTRUCTION IN POWER EQUIPMENT, EVEN POWER GENERATION. MODULAR NUCLEAR AND ALL THESE KINDS OF THINGS. ALL THESE THINGS AT THE MARGIN ARE INFLATIONARY. THE INFLATIONARY ON THE CORE FRONT, IN THE CORE P.C.E. FRONT, WHEN YOU LOOK AT POWER COST, WHEN YOU LOOK AT CONSTRUCTION COST, THESE ARE KEY INDICATORS THAT THE FED WILL BE LOOKING AT BECAUSE THE FED UNDER WARSH IS VERY FOCUSED ON CORE P.C.E., NOT THE TRANSITORY STUFF WITH REGARDS TO OIL OR FOOD. TODAY'S NUMBER WILL BE VERY INTERESTING. CORE P.C.E. HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER NOW FOR A COUPLE OF TIMES IN A ROW AND THE DOLLAR IS ALONGSIDE. THE DOLLAR IS ON THE BRINK OF A BREAKOUT. IT'S ALMOST BROKEN OUT AGAINST THE YEN. IT'S ALREADY BROKEN OUT AGAINST GOLD AND THE EURO. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO BE MUCH MORE MACRO FROM THE MICRO OF THE TECH TRADE. PAUL: TO YOUR POINT ON GOLD, NOW THROUGH 4,000 NOW 3,585, BITCOIN PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO HAVING A FIVE HANDLE, CAN WE SAY DOLLAR DEBASEMENT AS A CONCEPT IS DEAD?
ANTHONY: THE RISKIER WAYS TO PLAY A WEAK DOLLAR HAVE BEEN DECIMATED. IT'S A RETAIL TRADE ON THE WAY UP. YOU SAW SHARP RALLIES IN BITCOIN, GOLD, SILVER. AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EUPHORIA IN STOCK THIS YEAR. THOSE TRADES HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY PANNED BACK, ONE BECAUSE THE DOLLAR IS STRONG. THE SECOND IS OBVIOUSLY RETAIL HAS OTHER THINGS TO DO. THEY CAN PLAY THIS SEMICONDUCTOR TRADE AGGRESSIVELY. MICRON TRADES $6 BILLION A DAY. YOU DON'T NEED TO BE PLAYING GOLD OR SILVER WHICH HAVE LESS FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT WITH THE DOLLAR BEING STRONG. IN TERMS OF DEBASEMENT TRADES, THE DEBASEMENT TRADES THAT ARE DEPENDENT ON RETAIL FLOW, THOSE ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE UNTIL AND UNLESS THERE'S A CHANGE IN THE DOLLAR TRAJECTORY. IN TELLS OF THE DIVERSIFY CASE AWAY IF THE DOLLAR INTO THE YUAN OR EURO, THOSE ARE MORE FUNDAMENTALLY DRIVEN. CHINA LOOKS TO OPEN UP CAPITAL MARKS BUT EUROPE IS STRUGGLING IN TERMS OF ENERGY SHOCK AND EXPORT SLOWDOWNS. IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THAT TRADE DEVELOPS OVER TIME. PAUL: BLOOMBERG MARKETS REPORTER, ANTHONY STEPHENS THERE. JOINING US IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF AIPAC. YOU HAVE PREVIOUSLY ADVISED COMPLIANTS TO SELL DOLLAR RALLIES AND DIVERSIFY. DO YOU STAND BY THAT POSITION?
I THINK IN THE NEAR TERM WE DO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE DOLLAR STILL IS BEING HAWKISH. NEAR TERM WE WON'T DISMISS THAT THE DOLLAR CAN STAY STRONGER LONGER. BUT WHETHER WE STILL ENCOURAGE CLIENTS TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR, IT IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY TO USE THE CURRENT LEVELS OF $STRENGTH TO DIVERSIFY EXPOSURE OUT OF THE U.S. $ON A MORE MEDIUM TO LONGER TERM BASIS. THE PIVOT POINT THE DOLLAR STRENGTH, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE TO BE PATIENT TO WAIT FOR THE TURN AROUND IN THE FED LANGUAGE, BUT IT ACTUALLY SHOULD BE VISIBLE CLOSER TO THE THREE TO SIX MONTH MARK WHEN THE CORE P.C.E. AND INFLATION PRESSURE ROSE OVER -- ROLLS
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