SpaceX股价暴跌31%：原因与后市观察

SpaceX stock peaked above $225 on 16 June 2026. By 22 June it closed at $154.60. That is a 31% decline in four trading sessions. $620 billion in market capitalisation erased. The stock that briefly ranked fourth largest in the world — ahead of Amazon, ahead of Microsoft — now sits seventh.The selloff is not a mystery. It is a textbook post-IPO correction that was visible to anyone who looked at the fundamentals. What makes it worth studying is how fast it happened, what triggered it, and what comes next.In this article:What just happened to SpaceX stock?Why is SpaceX stock dropping?Is SpaceX stock overvalued?How far could SPCX fall?What does the selloff mean for Anthropic and OpenAI?How to trade SPCX on BitMEXWhat should traders watch?FAQWhat Just Happened to SpaceX Stock?Numbers at a glance:IPO price (12 June): $135Opening print: $150Peak intraday: $225+ (16 June)Close (22 June): $154.60Decline from peak: 31%Market cap at peak: $2.99 trillionMarket cap now: $2.04 trillionValue erased: $620 billionYTD return vs S&P 500: +3.07% vs +9.16%Options implied volatility: 97.5%Morningstar fair value: $63Public float: 4.2%SpaceX listed on 12 June with a 4.2% float — the lowest for any mega-cap debut in US history. A 30% retail allocation, the highest on record, amplified moves in both directions. Vanda Research data shows individual investors bought $369.8 million of SPCX in the first three sessions — quadruple the $88.2 million they put into Nvidia over the same period. When the retail bid paused, the price had nowhere to go but down.Why Is SpaceX Stock Dropping?Three catalysts drove the selloff. Each was a known risk. The surprise is not that it happened — it is how fast it happened.The Cursor deal: $60 billion of dilutionOn 17 June, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor, the AI-native code editor. The deal represents 3.4% dilution at the $1.77 trillion IPO valuation. Morningstar responded by cutting its fair value estimate from $63 to $62 per share, citing “sizable dilution.” The best-case scenario per Morningstar now prices SpaceX at $169. The stock closed at $154 on 22 June. Even the optimistic analyst target is only 9% above the current price.Options debut: the other side of the tradeSpaceX options began trading on 17 June. Susquehanna analyst Chris Murphy wrote that there is a 15% chance the stock loses half its value within three months due to option positioning. The options-implied volatility clocked in at 97.5% — meaning the market is pricing a potential 97% annual move in either direction. That is nearly double the implied volatility of Tesla, itself one of the most volatile large-cap stocks. The arrival of puts gave the bears a tool they did not have during the first three days of pure upside.The reality check: valuation vs fundamentalsSpaceX trades at 104.7x price-to-sales. Its profit margin is negative 45%. Net losses hit $9.36 billion over the trailing twelve months. Revenue is $19.3 billion. The company burned $12.7 billion on AI in 2025 versus $3.8 billion on space. Paul Krugman called SpaceX a “$2.75 trillion meme stock.” Michael Burry said the company is likely worth less than $1 trillion. Morningstar’s $63 target implies 59% downside from the current price. At some point, the fundamentals matter. That point appears to have arrived.Is SpaceX Stock Overvalued?Yes — by every conventional financial metric, SpaceX is overvalued at its current price. It trades at 104.7x price-to-sales, carries a negative 45% profit margin, has accumulated a $41.3 billion deficit, and posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026 alone. Morningstar’s fair value estimate is $63 per share — 59% below the 22 June closing price of $154.60. Whether that makes it a bad trade is a different question.Here is how SpaceX compares to other large-cap technology companies on price-to-sales: SpaceX (SPCX) at 104.7x with -45% margin. Nvidia at ~35x with +55% margin. Microsoft at ~12.1x with +35% margin. Tesla at ~9.8x with +7% margin. Alphabet at ~5.4x with +28% margin. Amazon at ~3.1x with +9% margin.SpaceX is not just expensively valued relative to profitable tech companies. It is expensively valued relative to every other company in the S&P 500. The company raised $75 billion at IPO on an offering 3.5x oversubscribed, drawing over $250 billion in investor demand. That demand reflected the narrative, not the income statement.The bear case rests on hard numbers. SpaceX burned $12.7 billion on AI in 2025 versus $3.8 billion on its core space business. Net losses over the trailing twelve months totalled $9.36 billion on $19.3 billion in revenue. Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens pointed to the tiny public float and index-inclusion mechanics as artificial demand drivers that will fade. Michael Burry says the company is worth less than $1 trillion. Paul Krugman called it a “$2.75 trillion meme stock.”The bull case also rests on hard numbers — just different ones. Starlink is growing at roughly 50% annually with over 9,600 satellites in orbit and a near-monopoly on low-latency orbital broadband. The Cursor acquisition positions SpaceX as an AI-native development platform with a captive defence and aerospace customer base. The orbital data centre roadmap is speculative but not implausible. If Starlink reaches Tier 1 telecom scale, the revenue base changes entirely.The updated analyst consensus sits at $221.20 across seven Wall Street analysts (MarketBeat, June 2026). The range: $62 bear (Morningstar) to $310 bull (Oppenheimer). A 400% spread between the lowest and highest targets is not analysis. It is an admission that nobody knows what this company is worth.How Far Could SPCX Fall?Historical precedent: the 15 largest US IPOs since 2006 averaged a 50% drawdown during their first year. The average first-year finish was 33% below the IPO price. If SpaceX follows the historical average, the stock would see $67.50 at some point during the next 12 months and finish the year around $90. That implies 56% downside from the current $154 and 70% downside from the $225 peak.The lockup schedule is the other shoe. SpaceX has staggered lockup expirations over the coming months. Insiders who bought at pennies on the dollar can start selling into a market with only 4.2% float. The supply shock could be severe. The first wave of lockup expiries hits in August 2026, coinciding with the company’s first earnings report as a public company. August is the single highest-risk month on the calendar for SPCX holders.We do not give financial advice. Please always do your own research.What Does the SpaceX Selloff Mean for Anthropic and OpenAI?SpaceX was the first of three mega-cap IPOs expected in 2026. Anthropic and OpenAI both filed confidential S-1s in early June. The timing of their public debuts depends in part on whether SpaceX can hold its IPO price.If the first major IPO of the year tanks, it hurts the risk appetite of institutional investors. To get subsequent, smaller IPOs across the finish line, bankers and underwriters are often forced to lower valuations and offer deeper discounts.The Kalshi prediction market currently prices Anthropic at 72% likely to IPO before OpenAI. Both companies are watching SPCX daily. The SpaceX selloff is not just about SpaceX. It is about the entire AI IPO pipeline. If the most-hyped public debut in history cannot hold its price, the $965 billion Anthropic valuation and the $852 billion OpenAI valuation look considerably more fragile.How to Trade SPCX on BitMEXBitMEX lists SPCXUSDT — a perpetual contract on SpaceX stock — letting traders go long or short 24 hours a day, seven days a week, without needing a US brokerage account or a seat at the IPO.Here’s how you can trade SpaceX:1. Create or log into your BitMEX account at bitmex.com. New users currently receive $5,050 in trading credits.2. Deposit crypto or buy crypto with credit card and more.3. Search for SPCXUSDT in the contract search bar.4. Set leverage before placing any order — given