全球ETF规模达22万亿美元，贝莱德谈模型组合与市场展望

SCARLET: WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG ETF IQ.

HAPPY MONDAY. A LOTTA FOCUS ON THE FED. SCARLET: IT IS A NEW ERA IN WAYS. KATIE: IN THE NEARLY 22 TRILLION DOLLAR GLOBAL ETF, SPACEX MAKING A BIG SPLASH WITH LEVERAGED ETF'S. THE COMPANY STOCK IS FALLING AGAIN. SCARLET: WE WILL TALK TO BLACKROCK ABOUT THE GROWTH OF MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND LATER MAY DE FROM RAYMOND JAMES. WE WILL ASK ABOUT THE LARGEST LEVERAGED ETF. ERIC BALCHUNAS IS OFF TODAY SO KATIE WILL LOOK AT FLOWS.

TAKE IT AWAY. KATIE: LET'S LOOK AT WHERE MONEY WAS MOVING IN THE WEEK THAT WAS HERE. AT THE TOP, YOU HAVE IVV AND SPYM TAKING IN SOME BIG MONEY. TAKE A LOOK AT IVV. THAT IS A LOT OF MONEY. BONDS TAKING IN SOME MONEY AS WELL. THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. LET'S LOOK AT THE OUTFLOWS AS WELL BECAUSE EQUALLY INTERESTING YOU CAN SEE SPY UP TOP LOSING ABOUT $12 BILLION EVEN AS YOU SAW SPY M TAKE IN THAT MONEY. OF COURSE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING SPACEX AND HIS BIRTH INTO THE PUBLIC MARKET AND ETF'S THAT WERE FASHIONED AROUND IT OR HAD BIG STAKES, LOSING SOME CASH.

FUNKY FLOWS GOING ON, BUT WE WILL TELL YOU ABOUT THAT LATER. LET'S TALK ABOUT ETF FLOWS OVERALL BECAUSE OVERALL 2026 HAS BEEN A FANTASTIC YEAR IN TERMS OF ATTRACTING CASH INTO THE SPACE. ETF FLOWS HAVE HIT THE TRILLION DOLLARS -- A TRILLION DOLLARS IN RECORD TIME. YOU CAN SEE WITH THE FLOW OVERALL HAS BEEN IN 2026, TAKING IN THAT BIG 1T. WE WILL SEE WITH THE REST OF THE YEAR HOLDS. SCARLET: JOINING US NOW IS TUSHAR YADAVA AT BLACKROCK.

AND THAT $1 TRILLION MARK FOR ETF FLOWS HAS A LOT TO DO WITH PORTFOLIOS. I WANT TO START ON SPACEX. WE WILL TALK ABOUT IT LATER ON, BUT THE STOCK IS DOWN FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY, LOSING 10% TODAY, DOWN ABOUT 18% IN THE PAST THREE DAYS. WHERE DOES A COMPANY LIKE SPACEX FIT INTO MODEL PORTFOLIOS? TUSHAR YADAVA: GREAT QUESTION. IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL DOMINATE ATTENTION AS WE SEE THIS START TO PICK UP THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

MORE BROADLY, ENVIRONMENTS WHERE YOU ARE SEEING AN UPTICK IN IPO ACTIVITY ARE SIGNS OF A HEALTHY EQUITY MARKET. THAT IS SOMETHING RESONATING WITH CLIENTS AT I THINK THE BEAUTY OF THE WAY WE MANAGE PORTFOLIOS AND THE WAY WE USE BUILDING BLOCKS OR THEMES THAT WE WANT TO GET PORTFOLIO EXPOSURES TO IS IF SOMETHING LIKE THIS COMES TO MARKET THAT WE HAVE INTEREST IN OR THAT YOU HAVE A PARTICULAR OPINION IN THREE THEME YOU ARE ABLE TO PLAY THAT HERE AND RIGHT NOW, WE FOCUS ON AI IN OUR PORTFOLIOS.

WE HAVE HAD THAT FOR A COUPLE YEARS. THAT BUILDS INTO HOW YOU GET AN EXPOSURE TO AN AREA THAT IS POWERING THE PORTFOLIO ON WHERE WE ARE SEEING STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH IN A LOT OF THESE COMPANIES AND DELIVERING THAT. I THINK THAT IS WHERE CLIENT INTEREST MEETS THE PORTFOLIO. KATIE: LET'S TALK ABOUT HOW YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT EQUITIES BECAUSE BLACKROCK MANAGES ABOUT 200 $20 BILLION IN ASSETS AND LOOKING AT THE LAST TRADE THAT WENT THROUGH, THE BIG REBALANCE AT THE END OF MAY, YOU ARE STEPPING BACK A LITTLE FROM EQUITIES.

YOU ARE STILL OVERWEIGHT BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SO AND I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR THE THOUGHT PROCESS BEHIND WHY BECAUSE YOU TALK TO THE BULLS ON WALL STREET AND YOU HEAR ABOUT FANTASTIC EARNINGS, THE CLOUDS LIFTING FROM THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION, AND STILL STRONG ECONOMY.

ALL TRUE. WE ARE STRONG BELIEVERS IN THE FACT THE EQUITY MARKET WILL MOVE HIGHER BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. THINGS TEND NOT TO OCCUR IN MAY. WHERE I -- WHY ARE WE STEPPING BACK? IT IS MORE THAN WHAT HAPPENED IN MARCH. WE WERE AWARE OF THE FACT THAT EARNINGS LOOKED STRONG. WE WERE IN FOR A GENERATIONAL EARNINGS SEASON, WHICH IS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, BUT NOW THE SAME PROBLEM PERSISTS TODAY BUT THE LEVELS WE ARE AT ARE HIGHER SO THE STARTING POINTS MATTER.

AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE SEEN PRICING OF FEDERAL RESERVE MOVES CHANGE FROM CUTS TO HIKES. YOU HAVE SEEN OIL PRICES MOVE HIGHER AND I THINK AGAINST THAT BACKDROP THE PATH TO ENDING THE YEAR HIGHER WITHOUT VOLATILITY -- YOU HAVE TO RESPECT THAT. THAT IS WHAT WE DID IN OUR LATEST REBALANCING. HOW DO WE ADD MORE SHOCK ABSORBERS THAT ARE NOT TRADITIONALLY LONG FIXED INCOME INTO OUR PORTFOLIO TO GET US THROUGH TO THE END OF THE YEAR?

TUSHAR: KATIE: THAT I FIND INTERESTING, ADDING DIVERSIFICATION BUT NOT THROUGH TEXTBOOK WAYS WHICH WOULD BE LONG DATED FIXED INCOME. WHAT IS BLACKROCK LOOKING TO AS ONE OF THOSE SHOCK ABSORBERS, THAT ALTERNATIVE BALLAST TO A PORTFOLIO THAT IS NOT JUST FIXED INCOME? TUSHAR: I KNOW YOU ARE A BOND GIRL AT HEART. I DO NOT MEAN TO CAUSE YOU EVENTS. I DON'T WANT TO CAUSE TRAUMA TO A PREGNANT WOMAN TALKING ABOUT BONDS BUT I WILL SAY WHEN WE LOOKED AT WHAT WE WANTED TO DO TO ADD SHOCK ABSORBERS TO OUR PORTFOLIO, WE ARE COMING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE FED IS ATTACKING INFLATION FROM ABOVE.

IN THOSE ABOVE REGIMES WHERE THE WORRY IS WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN, STOCK BOND CORRELATIONS CAN SPIKE AND THEY CAN SPIKE POSITIVELY AND THAT CAN BE A HORRIBLE LESSON WE LEARNED IN 2022 FOR A LOT OF CLIENTS. STOCKS ARE SELLING OFF BUT ALSO BONDS ARE SELLING OFF. THE ACTIVE ETF LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED DRAMATICALLY. WE NOW HAVE ALTERNATIVE ETF'S AVAILABLE THAT CAN GIVE YOU STRATEGIES. JUST A DIFFERENT SET OF RETURNS TO STOCKS AND BONDS AND THAT IS THE SHOCK ABSORBER YOU CAN BRING.

SCARLET: LET'S TALK ABOUT ETF MODEL PORTFOLIOS OF LATE. IT IS NOW $3 TRILLION MACHINE. THAT IS WHAT ERIC IS FOUND IN HIS RESEARCH. 20 YEARS AGO, WE KNOW THAT FINANCIAL ADVISORS SELECTED FUNDS BUT TODAY THEY ARE SELECTING A MODEL PERP -- PROVIDER. DO YOU THINK THE INDUSTRY CENTER OF GRAVITY HAS SHIFTED FROM FUND PICKING AND STOCKPICKING TO MODEL PICKING? TUSHAR: ABSOLUTELY. YOU ARE SEEING YEARS OF ACCELERATION START TO COME TO BEAR NOW BUT I THINK THE DAYS OF THE STOCKPICKING MAY BE ARE NOT DEAD FOR TRADITIONAL ADVISORS BUT I THINK YOU CAN LOOK AT THE DUE DILIGENCE AND THE RANGE OF PRODUCTS AND SIMPLICITY OF THE SOLUTIONS, IT ALLOWS CLIENTS TO FOCUS FOR ALLOWS ADVISORS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THEIR PRACTICE, WHICH IS CLIENTS AND FINANCIAL PLANS AND GETTING THEM TO THOSE GOALS ON TIME SO MODEL PORTFOLIOS ARE THE INNOVATION THAT HELPS DO THAT AND I THINK CLIENT TRENDS ARE WHERE CLIENT DRIVEN BUSINESS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

SCARLET: DOES SUCCESS IN ETF'S FROM SMALLER ISSUERS INCREASINGLY DEPEND ON GETTING INTO MODELS?

ANY ETF PROVIDER, IF THEY WERE LAUNCHING TODAY -- WE USE LOTS OF THIRD-PARTY PRODUCTS. WHEN WE TALK TO THEM, WE ADVISE THEM YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT. YOU CAN GO DOWN THE NICHE ROUTE OR THINK ABOUT HOW YOU WOULD SHOW UP IN A CLIENT PORTFOLIO. I DON'T THINK THE MODEL NECESSARILY IS THE REASON YOU HAVE THAT CONVERSATION. I THINK ISSUERS SHOULD ALWAYS HAVE BEEN HAVING THAT CONVERSATION. HOW DOES A CLIENT OR ADVISOR USE ME?

I THINK IT HAS JUST BECOME MORE APPARENT THAT THAT IS THE WAY TO THINK ABOUT HOW TO SCALE YOUR BUSINESS QUICKLY. KATIE: LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT THE FUTURE COULD LOOK LIKE. A $3 TRILLION ALLOCATION MACHINE -- IT REALLY FEELS LIKE THAT WHEN YOU SEE FLOWS SHIFT AROUND QUARTER BY QUARTER AND AS THEY FOUND 22% OF ETF ASSETS CAN PROBABLY BE TRACED BACK TO MODELS AT THIS POINT AND I WONDER HOW YOU THINK ABOUT THAT FIGURE. 22%.

IS IT REASONABLE TO THINK OF A FUTURE WHERE THAT IS CLOSER TO 50 OR HOW REALISTICALLY BIG COULD THIS BECOME IN TERMS OF THE SLICE OF THE ETF INDUSTRY IT REPRESENTS?

I DON'T THINK IT IS UNREALISTIC AND I THINK THE TRAJECTORY IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN GOING FOR A WHILE AND CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE. I THINK THE ETF INDUSTRY HAS ALWAYS BEEN FANTASTIC AT REINVENTING ITSELF AND FINDING WAYS OF SURPRISING YOU. SO I DON'T WANT TO SIT HERE AND TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE WITH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY BUT I WILL SAY THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG PART OF THE ETF INDUSTRY GROWTH. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT WAY AND AS LONG AS CLIENT PREFERENCE AND THE EASE WITH WHICH WE ARE DELIVERING A SOLUTION IS POWERFUL TO AN ADVISOR AND CLIENT, THAT IS THE SIGN THAT YOU WILL CONTINUE TO SEE.

SCARLET: THE CRITICISM IS SMALL -- MODEL PORTFOLIOS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO CROWDING. WHAT IS THE RISK THAT EVERYONE ENDS UP OWNING THE SAME HANDFUL OF ETF'S? TUSHAR: IT IS ASSET ALLOCATION BUSINESS,

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