FOMC后股市反弹：通胀与AI泡沫风险并存

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Um, let's start off strong here. get a thoughts about where we're going on these markets. Sema Shaw, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. She's based in London, but she's getting ready to do like a a Midwest America trip. Good for her. I mean, East Lancing, Michigan. I have a soft spot in my heart for East Lancing, uh the state capital of Michigan. De Mo, Iowa, another great uh town. Sema, thanks so much for joining.

You're giving us a little time here in New York City.

What's the conversation you're having with your clients as you come through the US and meeting with your clients these days?

Hello. Thanks for having me. Um so the main conversation is of course around the Fed that that has to be the the key conversation and actually it's interesting because what we had seen is that over the previous 6 months there really wasn't a conversation about the Fed. No one was talking about interest rates. Uh and now of course that conversation is completely turned on his head questioning about inflation whether rate hikes are coming and then of course if the market can digest that.

So do you think Kevin War's biggest change is more policy or communication or maybe both?

I think it could be both. I mean I think communication is obviously at the moment it is the key one and we did see that actually without the communication the market puts more emphasis on the dots which is the exact opposite of what he wanted but I think as we go down the line as we get towards the end of the year policy really could have uh some meaningful changes so much is going to depend on that task force so you know we're going to be thinking about volatility in the next few months around what happens to rates but then at the end of the year there's a a significant potential for for pretty big market moves around what happens from those task forces.

Sim, what's your inflation call um these days? We've seen oil come down as it seems like we may have some progress here on some some peace negotiations in the Middle East. What's your inflation call overall?

Yeah, so we've got headline CPI for example at around 4.2% by year end. Uh the oil price coming down certainly helps, but we do think that there's structural inflation. It's going to come down further through 2027. We do think it gets pretty close to 2% uh but still above and the main reason for that is there are some other structural drivers behind inflation which are not going to be disappearing anytime soon mainly around the AI capex buildout.

So this is still a high inflation environment. Uh we think that the Fed is going to stay on hold but I have to say you know clearly the risks around a potential hike have increased since last week. Um and so that is something which is a life edge for us.

All right Stephan thank you so much for joining us. We're going to go uh to Switzerland right now. Sim Michelle, chief global strategist for principal global investment. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. David Katz joins us, president and chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors. David, how do you guys think about small cap stocks these days?

Well, small caps have underperformed large caps for quite some time. So, we think they are due to start to do better. You're starting to see it now. Um, you know, a lot of that has come from smaller AI type plays that have done well within the small cap space. Uh but we think if you look at the next two to four years if interest rates ever start trending lower economy starts to pick up small caps are selling at a much more reasonable valuation than the large caps and mega caps.

What to you is the most crowded trade in the market right now. Or should I even ask that and it's AI?

Exactly. So it's AI but it no longer is AI like the Googles and the Amazons of the world. It's AI the semiconductors and those beneficiaries. The pricing has gone crazy. Prices are up 100 200%. As a result, earnings and profitability and margins are up very significantly for a lot of chip companies and they're being valued as if it's going to stay up there forever. As a result, they're selling at very very rich valuations and we think that that's an area to be wary about.

We would not be throwing new money into the chip area of AI right now.

So when you see an IPO $75 billion of SpaceX, the biggest of all time and whatnot, you got Anthropic in the pipeline. We've got Open AI in the pipeline. and gajillion dollar IPOs. Does that tell you anything about the nature of the market? Is it light cycle? Is it frothy? Is it just a sign of a healthy market? How do you think about it?

All three. It's healthy you're able to sell these things, but it definitely is frothy right now. If you look at um ChachiBT and you look at Anthropic, they're looking to be about a $1 trillion company. Microsoft right now sells at about $3.2 trillion. Um there isn't a big moat in a lot of these AI companies. As you see, Claude is now dominating ChachiBT. Things change. So, we think that ultimately you're paying a lot for those companies and we think there probably is better opportunity in the Google's and Microsofts of the world because you're not getting a AI startup at a low valuation.

You're getting it at a top valuation.

You do warn though that AI sentiment could peak before fundamentals. Do you think we're getting close to that point?

Uh, we don't know when that point's going to come, but that that's exactly the point. Typically, the stocks are going to go down 3 to six months before the fundamentals start to slow. Um, we we don't think we're at that point yet, but we do think you'll probably get there in the next 6 to 18 months. And we think that from a stock price valuation, there are much better opportunities in the market in other areas that are not caught up in the excitement.

What are you doing in the bond market? Do you take credit risk here or do you just clip a 4.2% coupon on the 2-year?

We clip the 4.2% coupon in the 2-year. We don't think you want to take credit risk and we don't think you want to take duration risk. We focus on one to five years you're getting a good return. We think ultimately inflation is a longerterm problem. The budget deficit is a longerterm problem. The Fed losing its autonomy is a problem. So as a result we're a little bit wary about longerterm bonds. Short-term bonds though we think is a lock that you get that 4.2% return.

You've been bullish all year mostly. What's stopping you from being even more bullish today?

Well, we're sort of counterintuitive. The fact that the market's gone up so much this year and the last three and a half years and now sales at 23 times earnings means that there's less upside. We think if the market regresses to the normal valuation that you're more limited. We think earnings growth is very good and an interesting fact a hyper earnings growth 20% or more earnings growth has generally not been an ideal market to make optimal returns.

Usually 0 to 5% 5 to 10% better for stock market returns. So, the fact that we have great earnings growth doesn't mean that you're going to have great stock market returns, especially going forward because you've already gotten a year's worth of returns in six months.

Give us a name or two that you like right now because it's got to be hard to pick individual names given some of the runs we've had, but a lot of names have not participated.

Well, that's

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