彭博：美股面临通胀与利率不确定性，盈利仍是关键

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And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app, we begin this hour with stocks little change following two weeks of gains heading into this week's inflation data. Lori Calvina of RBC writing, "The sentiment story has been one of mixed emotions with takeaways varying depending on which data set one is looking at." Lori joins us now for more. Lori, good morning. Good to see you.

Good morning.

Does the bull case stand up to the rate height debate at the moment? I I think so as long as you have a moderate amount of rate hikes. Um we talked about this in our weekly a few weeks ago that whether you're looking at it from the perspective of the Fed taking rate uh taking their interest rate up or 10 10 year bond yields moving up that when we go back and we look at the history both since 2022 on the bond yield side or if we look back to 1990 and look at sort of Fed moves over the context of 12-month moves in the market everything in moderation seems like something the equity market can handle.

If you go back to 2021 2022, we priced in an enormous amount of hikes. We had a massive move up in 10-year bond yields. It was a real regime change. We've been sort of stuck in this bond yield envir environment on the 10-year yield side between sort of 3.3 to 5%. If we stay contained in that range, I think that we could have some short-term indigestion in markets, but still have a fairly good outlook over the next 12 months.

Similarly, if you go back and you look at how stocks perform in different hiking and cutting cycles, um your best environment is when the Fed does absolutely nothing. So, we can keep our fingers crossed for that scenario. But you tend to get like 13 to 14% returns on both the hiking side and the cutting side when you're seeing moves in the 0 to 100 basis point range. So, as long as we stay, you know, within say twoish hikes over the next 12 months of 25 basis points, I think stocks will ultimately be okay.

They may not like it in the short term. Lisa mentioned Deutsche Bank looking for a call rate hikes later this year. Bank of America doing the same. That note just dropped earlier on this morning. This call, this conversation accelerated by this move in energy, but energy dropped back to the 70s. When you speak to the team at RBC, how dependent is the outlook for interest rates on what's happening in the commodity market.

So Blakew on our US rates strategy team uh handles the Fed call for us. He's not currently looking for any Fed moves though he has also written that his conviction in that has come down and our econ team has talked about how the next move may be a hike rather than a cut. I think there's a lot of fluidity in the situation right now. One of the things that came out in my meetings with investors last week is just a lot of uncertainty is in the air whether you're looking at the path of the Fed going forward, how the Fed is going to operate going forward and frankly also this situation in the Middle East in terms of what that means for oil prices.

What should your assumption be over the next 12 months? I don't think a lot of people know that, but that does have reverberations and headline inflation. One thing that Blake has really emphasized to us internally is that he hasn't really viewed the Fed policy rate as the appropriate path or the appropriate tool really to combat uh any inflation emanating from oil prices, but we do know of course that we have inflation emanating from other sources as well.

What's more important for the equity market? Core PCE coming out on Thursday or Micron earnings coming out on Wednesday. I think that this is a situation in the equity market where we have very very strong earnings tailwinds that are running up against very stiff headwinds on the PE side and you tend to get compression in the PE, right? When you have higher inflation, higher interest rates, but so far in our modeling, it looks like the earning story is strong enough to offset those headwinds from compression.

So, I would say right now earnings matter more. At this point, a lot of people keep talking about that and yet you take a look at some of the earnings. They've been driven by names that have pricing power. There is a bit of push back on the pricing side in a significant way from hyperscalers and from other companies that are realizing that there are some limits we might be bumping up against. At what point is that a tension that needs to get resolved that could potentially be a risk factor?

So, look, I think it is something that investors are already thinking about and digesting which takes some of the edge off frankly. Um, I think we just have to go through reporting season, right, and hear what the latest commentary is from companies. Um, one of the things we've talked about is the capex cycle. And we're getting a lot of questions on this last week. A lot of that is hyperscaler driven, is AI driven.

Um, if you look at rates of change on S&P 500 capex, you're kind of hovering around peak-like type levels. But if you ex out the top 10 names, we're in the very early stages of a capex recovery cycle. So, can you elongate the cycle as you get more companies participating in the capex boom? That's something we have to think about given the tax bill that we saw last year. So, we're still sorting through a lot of these issues.

Are more companies going to be participating when it comes to doing better in the stock market given they could put the Iran war behind them and energy prices are moving much lower? So I'll tell you Marie, last week um the business roundt put out the CEO confidence survey that they run and we actually saw that tick up um and it was on the strength of capex expectations, sales expectations, hiring expectations were pretty neutral, but there's just really been a clear contrast between say investor sentiment which has been kind of weak or meh.

Um it's gotten a little bit better recently, but hasn't been that fantastic. Um and then if you look at the corporate side, things are I wouldn't say they're off to the races, but are still generally optimistic. So I think we have to take some comfort from that especially as we head into this next reporting season.

Can I answer the question? Can I just say Micron?

Yeah.

Right. Micron probably because I think most economists understand where PCE will probably come in after seeing CPI and PPI in the last week.

Yeah. And how high expectations are from Micron given the fact that it's rallied like some 800% in the past year. I mean it's insane. You start wondering can they keep having this transfer of wealth coming from hyperscalers to them. There was a chart showing the divergence of performance between the hyperscalers and the chipmakers and it's bonkers. is I mean it just shows what's going on right now and it feels like maybe not totally sustainable in perpetuity.

Sometimes you just can't please some people and they'll say things like this is as good as it gets even if it is so good. Have we seen peak as good as it gets?

So if you look at the rate of upward revisions for either the semiconductor companies or the S&P 500 in general, it does look like we've sort of hit those peak levels of earnings enthusiasm. If we looked at the S&P 500, the rate of upward revisions, I think it got to around 89 90% recently at the high. The high tends to be kind of in that 90 to 94% range. And in our latest update, it ticked down to 86%. So these are all very good numbers, right?

You're still generally seeing

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