鲁比尼：经济不依赖美联储政策，科技繁荣是主驱动力

Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Macro Associates writing on this trajectory. UX exceptionalism strengthens rather than fades. Equity valuations need not rest on bubble dynamics and should deliver solid returns despite episodic volatility. Nouriel, join us now for more. Nouriel, good morning. Good morning. Really beautiful moment was sent in with Dave McCormick leaving the studio. You come again. He said, you're no longer doctor Doom anymore.

You're doctor Boom. What's changed? What changed has been essentially the most important technological innovation in human history. While everybody's talking about AI and Gen AI, this is only one of the 12 or more indices of the future. You have AI. You have semiconductors. You have robotic automation and humanoid robots. You have fusion energy. You have quantum. You have defense tech. You have space exploration, fintech, agtech.

You have new material science, new cryptography. Really, it's a Cambrian explosion of innovations. Each one of them, I have to say, powered by AI, but they're separate verticals, very separate industries. Space exploration exploitation is separate from AI even if it's fed by AI. So I'm gonna see US potential growth for the last two decades has been barely 2%. I expected that by the end of this decade, it's gonna be at least 4%, And the data already suggests that productivity since COVID has doubled in spite of COVID.

It's already closer to two percent plus. And with potential growth higher, there'll be a significant increase also in equity market returns. How concerned are you about bumps along the way? Christine Lagarde talking about the financial risk, that comes along with the likes of Mythos or some of the technological advancements that could potentially torpedo the financial system, the payment system as we know it. I mean, how much is that potentially a risk on the way to this much, more prosperous future?

Well, there are two types of risks. You know, I wrote a book in 2022 about megatrends where I spoke about stagflationary risk, things that reduce growth and increase inflation, while technology does the opposite, increases growth, reduces inflation. Of course, having tariffs, having restriction of migration, having large budget deficits, playing with the independence of the Fed, the rule of law, you name it. All those things can be actually reducing growth and increasing inflation.

And there are risks coming from AI, existential risk or risk having financial or that types of instability. You know? I've said since April of last year that tech trumps tariffs because the impact on growth of tech is 200 basis points, my view, going from two to 4%. If you add in a realistic scenario where market discipline constraints bad policies because it did constrain them, then the downside from bad policies at best 50 basis points.

So the ratio of 200 to 54 to one. So tech Trump's tariff, and I said also tech Trump's Trump's temper tantrums too because all those things are constrained again by market discipline. Every time he's in tallow mode, flushes out, then the market punishes him, and it goes back to chickening out. It happened after April 2. It happened after Greenland. It happened after the war with Iran. So market discipline is a very powerful force to constrain their policies.

Do you think it's appropriate for the Fed to hike once or even twice? It's it's possible. I would say the economy is gonna strengthen. Inflation probably is gonna slow down because now oil price are not a 100. They're closer to 80. And therefore, food prices, fertilizer, things are gradually falling, and it will be bottlenecks. So it's kind of like a a close call. But I would say it it doesn't really matter very much because, you know, the economy is powered by AI and technology and these massive tailwinds, and they don't depend very much on policy rates.

If policy rates are 50 basis points higher or lower, I don't think the tech boom is gonna really matter very much. And we already saw during the war we run that when oil was at a 100, the stock market reached all time highs in spite of that, in spite of worries about what the Fed does. So I would say people obsessed with the Fed, whether it's 50 basis points higher, whether it's right now. What's the difference? The key story is tech boom, and that's gonna be the most important first order impact of anything else.

That's the headline from this conversation, Nouriel. Always fantastic to catch up with you, sir. Just to beg the obvious question, what does hike in interest rates actually achieve? Well and right now, stock market seems to be moving on. Does it actually slow anything down? Ultimately, a task force will answer that question, John. Wanna run a task force? Do you fancy that? Oh, you know, he wants to change things, but I would say one important point.

He argues seconds. I have one very quick important point. He argues that because of productivity growth, Fed funds rate should be lower because inflation is gonna be lower. But if potential growth is higher, they could live in a real rate. What short and long is higher. So they're a bit of a wash on the policy rates and on the long rates.