黄金驱动因素：通胀还是美联储？CME集团分析

[music]

While gold has long been viewed as a reliable inflation hedge, periods when inflation rises but gold stays [music] flat or declines often reveal more about the Federal Reserve's policy stance than the inflation numbers themselves. [music] Our 30-year analysis of core PCE shows that gold performed best when inflation was high [music] and rising and the FOMC had not yet shifted toward tighter policy. [music] In the key 2021 to early 2022 window, gold consolidated [music] rather than rallied and forward returns from those months were stronger than average.

Once the FOMC [music] shifted to active rate tightening, gold declined even as inflation remained elevated. Gold responds more to the FOMC's [music] stance and the real yields it produces than to inflation alone. When the committee shifts from easy money toward tighter policy, [music] gold tends to come under pressure regardless of the inflation print.

[music]