美联储能否继续观望？劳动力与GDP矛盾加剧

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Just prior to the April 3rd release of the unemployment report, the prevailing narrative at the Federal Reserve and in economic circles was that the general economy was pretty healthy, but that the labor market was weak, perhaps [music] because AI was eliminating jobs. After the number, the narrative did a complete 180. Job growth came in strong that day, as did subsequent NFP releases and JOLTS data. Oddly, some of the more general economic numbers have begun to decelerate, seemingly in spite of the strong labor picture.

Real GDP grew at 1.6 annual rate in Q1 2026, while personal income was essentially flat in April, and the trade deficit narrowed only slightly.

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Same time, retail sales have remained solid, but some will argue that the pickup in inflation, currently at 4.2% year-over-year, has contributed to the consumer's need to spend more.

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So now the Fed seems to be facing another conundrum. If the economy continues to slow its growth, can the jobs numbers stay solid? Now if you mixed in the oil-induced inflation rise, it could make the Fed's job much more difficult. But, as of mid-June, there may be help on the way.

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News of a prolonged ceasefire in the Iran conflict has pushed crude back down to $80 a barrel, a number seen only once briefly since the conflict began. Now as long as crude stays relatively calm, the belief is that the Fed can wait and see how the labor versus GDP debate resolves. Another big spike in crude may force the Fed to move without that resolution.