Arthur Hayes：AI泡沫破裂将推动比特币升至百万美元

You can't change the fact that a chip gets better every two years if you if you pump 10 trillion dollars into the economy. So what's the first response going to be by the financial authorities to try to save the banks are going to say, "Oh, we just need to shovel fiat money in." And at that point, investors are going to say, "I do not want to put any new capital, whether it's free or not, into AI because it does not meet its cost of capital."

So therefore, this capital goes straight to crypto. And this is the the implosion of the AI bubble. and the follow on money printing that's going to happen especially in the United States to try to stick shave the system from this gross capital misallocation that's happened over the last let's call it 6 to 7 years by that point is going to dwarf subprime and is going to take us to Bitcoin a million or whatever

bank station I'm here with Arthur Hayes Arthur welcome back to the podcast

thanks for having me

Arthur I originally asked you to come on back in May because I saw you were getting bullish on some of the tokens that I was also bullish on hype near Zcash. So I was like sick. Let's let's get Arthur on the show. We can be bullish together. We can talk about tokens. It's going to be great. And then you sold them. So now I don't have any tokens to talk to you about about why you're bullish because you sold them all.

What happened? So you know I'm always analyzing my thinking especially on this AI narrative and you know I felt that the risks outweighed the benefits of being long especially in these things and time to take some profit there wasn't the the same asymmetry there in terms of the awareness of these the potential of things like near and hype on the Zcash front bit of a different issue the way I view things if I think that there is a risk of like pretty much a complete wipeout in my capital due to some technical issue.

I can't in good conscious keep my capital in that particular situation. Uh obviously the Zcash team is fixing this issue at informal verification. You know when when the new shield pool launches hopefully this thing will be fixed and I can evaluate then and see if I want to uh come back in and you know I might come back in at higher prices but again I've been doing this for a very long time and I still have most of my money.

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So, obviously we have the SpaceX IPO. It's done very well in the first two trading days, but that's a a low float high FTV shitcoin in my opinion and we know how those go when you start having unlocks and we start having unlocks in September. We have anthropic and opening eye coming to market as well. And also we have this Iran war energy situation. you know, if you believe the authorities, they say it's supposed to be fixed.

And then I guess read some headlines this morning that Israel says we're going to keep bombing Lebanon and supposedly Iran cares about Lebanon. We don't know. So that's like a whole thing. We'll see if this thing actually materializes anything. But at the end of the day, we have this underlying bid for physical commodities that isn't going away. And so there could be a situation where we wake up in 3 four months time and oil's at $120, but the straight is supposedly open.

And what do you do then? essentially every energy is the input for our entire civilization including the AI because AI is just transforming energy into intelligence the most efficient way possible. So, you know, all these things were weighing in my mind like, okay, I think the summer is going to be sort of a topping period for a lot of the markets. I've done really well on these calls. Let me just take the W and go chill.

And, you know, if I need to buy back in other things and let me find some asymmetry in other places, right? Like, I got into hype in the the the high 20s, low 30s. It's now whatever they got out at like 70s, right? That's a decent trade, right? I think to go from the 60 to the 150, my original call, not that it's going to be impossible, I think it will happen at some point, but it's going to be a harder slog than the first part of this this run.

And so, okay, as an investor, at least in how I view things, is I want to find those asymmetric trades where I can deploy a little amount of capital and get a big return and then I can put the rest in sort of low income yielding, you know, bond-like structures or Bitcoin.

So, how are you positioned right now? Are you in cash looking at opportunities trying to find the opportunities? Uh how are you positioned?

So obviously very long Bitcoin as always. I'm perennially long Bitcoin got a lot

when you sell these tokens like sell hype and near and Zcash which I imagine are shorter shorter term positions than Bitcoin otherwise would be. Do you sell into Bitcoin?

Um depends. So I haven't this time. I'm just sitting at a lot of tea bills just earning some yield and you know if I'm able to find some asymmetric opportunities before I really check out for summer vacation then I'll do that otherwise you know I'll just be compound my my rates at whatever three and a half% like not exciting obviously there's this big bull market going on but

thankfully on a decently large capital base it doesn't really matter um to me I more care about my mental sanity

right right okay so if you look at the crypto markets there are pockets of dispersi

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