港股逼近熊市，中国将46家美企列入出口管制

9:00 A.M. IN SHANGHAI, SHENZHEN AND HERE HERE IN HONG KONG. YOU ARE WATCHING THE CHINA SHOW. I’M YVONNE MAN WITH AVRIL HONG IN SINGAPORE WE ARE COUNTING DOWN TO THE OPEN AND THE GREATER CHINA MARKETS. OIL PRICES JUMP AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES FRESH THREATS AGAINST IRAN EVEN AS TALKS GET UNDERWAY ON THE PERMANENT REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE ELEPHANT IN GREATER CHINA IN FOCUS WITH TRADERS RETURNING FROM HOLIDAY. THE BROAD EQUITIES GAUGE AND RISK OF FALLING IN SOME BEAR MARKET TERRITORY. ALSO, BLOOMBERG LEARNS U.K. PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER COULD RESIGN AS SOON AS MONDAY, PAVING THE WAY FOR THE COUNTRY'S SEVENTH LEADER IN A DECADE. AND WE HEAR FROM CHINESE OLYMPIC GOLD MEDALIST EILEEN GU ABOUT HER BRAND PARTNERSHIPS AND HER FUTURE BEYOND SKIING. THAT EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION COMING UP. ♪ YVONNE: HAPPY MONDAY. WE START OFF THE SHOW WITH SOME BREAKING NEWS WHEN IT COMES TO LOAN PRIME RATE IN CHINA. UNCHANGED FOR BOTH THE ONE YEAR AND THE FIVE-YEAR. ONE YEAR HOLDS IF 3%. NO SURPRISES BECAUSE THE DATA WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE AI BOOM AND WHAT WE SEE IN EXPORTS, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS, SUGGESTING THAT DOES NOT SHOW -- THERE IS LESS URGENCY FOR THEM, POLICY TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY. UNCHANGED AT THE MOMENT. WE HAVE THAT OUT OF THE WAY. WE ARE WATCHING THIS REOPENED IN CHINA. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF INTERESTING CONFUSING SIGNALS THAT CAME THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE TALKS SWITZERLAND BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. WE CONTINUE TO SEE AS ASIAN EQUITIES DOING WELL. AVRIL: AFTER THESE TALKS GOT UNDER WAY THE U.S. AND IRAN, DESPITE A BIT OF CONFUSION IN THE INITIAL STAGES GIVEN TRUMP THREATENING THESE FRESH STRIKES AND IRANIAN MEDIA TALKING ABOUT HOW THE TALKS WERE PERHAPS STALLED. WE ARE SINCE HEARING THE IRAN- U.S. TALKS AND THE QATARIS OFFICIALS ALONG WITH PAKISTAN TALK ABOUT HOW THE FIRST SESSION OF THE U.S.-IRAN HIGH-LEVEL TALKS HAVE CONCLUDED. AS WE HAVE WATCHED THAT, WE ARE SEEING BRENT PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE THE $80 HANDLE. MAYBE A BIT OF A REVERSAL FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK. WHAT IS REALLY INTERESTING HAS BEEN THE REPRICING THAT'S UNDERWAY ON THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE. WE DID GET THE HOLIDAY ON FRIDAY OUT OF THE U.S. SO THIS IS THEIR CHANCE TO CATCH THROUGH A BIT MORE OF WHAT KEVIN WARSH HAD BEEN SIGNALING TO THE MARKETS. IN TERMS OF WHAT WE ARE HEARING FROM THE QATARIS, THEY ARE TALKINGS ABOUT THE COMMUNICATION LINES THAT HAVE BEEN FORMED TO AVOID THE MISHAPS. I THINK BOTH SIDES, THE SIGNALS WE'VE BEEN GETTING FROM BOTH U.S. AND IRAN HAS BEEN THAT THE PRIORITY IS TO KEEP THE STRAIT OPEN, LET THE OIL FLOW. TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN STOCKS IN TERMS OF S&P 500 FUTURES AND THE TRADING ACTION WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY. YOU ARE SEEING THE PEACE DIVIDEND, INCLUDING IN TAIWAN THAT IS BACK FROM A LONG WEEKEND. UP ABOUT 2%. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS ON DECK, INCLUDING THE MICRON EARNINGS THAT WILL INFORM THE PRICING POWER, THE AI TRADE AS WELL. TALKING ABOUT WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE GREATER CHINA MARKETS IN TERMS OF HONG KONG AND MAINLAND CHINA. WE ARE ON BEAR MARKET WATCH FOR MSCI CHINA ON THE BACKDROP OF THE TECH LANGUISHING ESPECIALLY AFTER LAST WEEK'S RETAIL SALES PRINT OUT OF CHINA. ASIDE FROM THAT, WE ARE WATCHING THE EXTENT TO WHICH CHINA'S A-SHARES PLAY A BIT OF SUPPORT IN THEIR RESPECTIVE DOLLAR CHINA HOLDING AT THE 6.78 LEVEL. THE LINES FROM QATAR, IT LOOKS LIKE DEEP CONFLICTING THINGS SEEMS TO BE THE PRIORITY. HEARING SOME COMMENTS OVER LEBANON. YVONNE: DE-CONFLICTION IS THE WORD. WE WILL GET MORE LINES, BREAKING NEWS IT COMES TO CHINA. THEY HAVE ADDED NOW SOME U.S. FIRMS TO ITS EXPORT CONTROL LIST , ONE OF WHICH IS USA RARE EARTHS INC. TO THAT LIST. IT IS A TOTAL OF 46 U.S. FIRMS NOW WHERE CHINA DOES BAN THE GOVERNMENT PURCHASED FROM YOU 46 U.S. FIRMS. THEY ALSO ADDED TO THE LIKES OF OTHER HOLDINGS TO THAT EXPORT CONTROL LIST AS WELL. INTERESTING THAT THE RARE EARTHS COMPANY, ON THE BACK OF WHAT WE HEARD FROM G7. WE HEARD A LOT OF THESE COUNTRIES AIMING TO REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON CHINA WHEN IT COMES TO RARE EARTHS WITH THAT TARGET OF NO MORE THAN 60%. INTERESTING HOW THAT AFFECTS THE GEOPOLITICAL TRADEWINDS AS WELL. THAT IS ONE THING TO FOCUS ON. YOU ARE WATCHING MORE ON THE LINES COMING THROUGH FROM THE QATARIS FROM THESE U.S.-IRAN TALKS. AVRIL: YEAH, OUR TEAM IS PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS AS WELL. FOR MORE, LET'S BRING IN JOHN AND STEVE. JOHN, LET'S START WITH YOU. WE ARE SEEING THESE LINES FROM THE QATARIS FAST AND FURIOUS. I THINK IT IS SUPPORTING SOME OPTIMISM THAT WE ARE SEEING SOME STABILITY ON THE STRAIT, OR AT LEAST BOTH SIDES ARE LOOKING IN THAT DIRECTION. I WONDER WHERE DO THINGS STAND ON THE TALKS NOW?

WHAT IS YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE PROGRESS THAT HAS BEEN MADE? JOHN: THE ACRIMONY BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES IS APPARENT. JD VANCE CITED SOME PROGRESS BEING MADE BUT WE HAD THE SYMBOLIC SHOW BY THE IRANIANS OF STAYING AWAY FOR A BIT AFTER TRUMP MADE THREATS CONCERNING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. SO, THEY ARE UNDERWAY AT THE HIGH LEVEL WITH MEDIATORS IN THERE. THE KEY IS GOING TO BE THESE TECHNICAL TALKS. A LOT OF ELEMENTS NEED TO BE WORKED UP IN A VERY SHORT TIMEFRAME, 60-DAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THE OFFICIAL TALKS GOING ON. THESE TECHNICAL TALKS ARE REALLY GOING TO BE THE KEY TO THE PROGRESS IN THE DEAL. BUT THEY ARE UNDERWAY. THE ACRIMONY WAS ON DISPLAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHERE THINGS WILL GO FROM HERE. YVONNE: THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LEBANON ASPECT. THAT IS KIND OF WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS SAYING OVER THE WEEKEND ON WHERE THESE THREATS STARTED. WHERE DO THINGS STAND WHEN IT COMES TO ISRAEL NOW?

JON: EXACTLY. LEBANON IS A KEY ISSUE IN THIS. FOR THE OPENING SESSION, IRAN MADE THIS POINT THAT THEY WANT TO SEE THE CEASEFIRE GOING ON IN SOUTHERN LEBANON. FOR ISRAEL, THIS IS A MAJOR SETBACK FOR THE NET ADMINISTRATION -- NETANYAHU ADMINISTRATION. THEY HAVE MADE SOUTHERN LEBANON A KEY SECURITY CONCERT AND THEY INDICATE WANT TO KEEP TROOPS THERE. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THE MAJOR ASPECTS FOR THIS, THE TOP OF IRAN'S AGENDA TODAY WHEN THE TALKS BEGIN. THE U.S. WAS FOCUSING MORE ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. HOW THIS ISSUE SETTLES OUT IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WILL REALLY DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF THESE NEGOTIATIONS. AVRIL: STEPHEN, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF WHAT WE ARE HEARING SO FAR?

WE ARE ALSO HEARING HOW OIL, SOME OF IT HAS GONE THROUGH. >> THERE WAS A LOT OF FEAR COMING INTO TODAY THAT YOU SAW THE STATEMENTS OF WITH AWAKEN FROM IRANIAN MEDIA SAYING THAT HORMUZ IS SHUT. YOU SAW TRUMP MAKING SOME MESSAGES ON TRUTH SOCIAL. THAT WAS WORRYING PEOPLE IN THE MARKET THAT THERE IS POTENTIALLY ESCALATION OF CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. CLEARLY, THIS QATARI STATEMENT IS THROWING A BIT OF COLD WATER ON THOSE FEARS. THE FACT THAT THESE NEGOTIATIONS ARE CONTINUING IS A BEARISH SIGNAL FOR THE MARKET. YOU ARE SEEING BRENT DOWN ABOUT 0.5%. AND WTI UP JUST ABOUT 0.5%. IT IS KIND OF PAIRING THOSE EARLIER GAINS OF THE DAY. I THINK YOU ALSO LOOK AT THE FLOW OF OIL. WHILE THERE IS OIL GETTING THROUGH, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH. BLOOMBERG HAS COUNTED ABOUT 8 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL HAS GONE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT COMPARES TO 20 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN. THAT'S VERY DIFFERENT THAN HORMUZ SAYING IT IS SHUT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE U.S. HAS SAID THERE ARE 17 MARYLAND -- 17 MILLION BARRELS THAT GOT THROUGH. IT IS INTERESTING WE HAVE THESE DUELING NARRATIVES. THE FACT THAT QATAR SAYS THESE TALKS ARE ONGOING, THAT THEY DIDN'T BREAKTHROUGH IS GOING TO BE SOMETHING THAT WILL PULL PRICES LOWER. AVRIL: THE OTHER THING IS THERE SEEMS TO BE CLOSER CORRIDORS. HOW ARE THINGS PLAYING OUT?

STEPHEN: WE ARE SEEING ON THE OMANI SIDE -- THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS TWO CORRIDORS. WE ARE SEEING OIL VICES LIKELY GOING THROUGH DARK. WE ARE SEEING IRANIAN VESSELS GETTING OUT AS WELL. THE IRANIAN SAYS THEY ARE LIKELY GETTING WAIVERS. COMPANIES ARE ABLE TO IMPORT AND COUNTRIES ARE ABLE TO IMPORT WITHOUT THE FEAR OF SANCTIONS. PRETTY STEADY FLOW GOING THROUGH ON THE OMAN SID