英国首相斯塔默预计宣布辞职时间表，英镑承压

LIZZY: THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. LIVE FROM DOWNING STREET, I'M LIZZY BURDEN. U.K. PRO MINISTER KEIR STARMER IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE A TIMETABLE FOR HIS RESIGNATION. WE WILL ANALYZE WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE MARKETS. OIL PRICES FALL AS MEDIATORS TOUT PROGRESS IN U.S.-IRAN TALKS EVEN AS PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENS NEW STRIKES IF HEZBOLLAH CONTINUES ATTACKS ON ISRAEL. AND STOCKS PUSH HIGHER, TECH LEADS GAINS IN ASIA AND GLOBAL FUTURES CLIMBED.

LET'S CHECK IN ON THE MARKETS AS THEY STAND. FUTURES STARTING THE WEEK NEGATIVE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ATLANTIC. EURO STOCKS FUTURES DOWN .3%, NOT FOLLOWING THE TECH BOOST WE SAW IN THE ASIAN SESSION. THE U.S. GETTING BACK AFTER THE JUNETEENTH HOLIDAY FRIDAY. PRESSURE ON STOCK FUTURES AS WE SEE TREASURY YIELDS CLIMBING ON THE INFLATION CONCERN BUT ALSO THE GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. SPEAKING OF, OIL IS RAISING EARLIER GAINS -- ERASING GAINS AFTER A ROCKY START YESTERDAY TO TALKS.

AND THE POUND TRADING NEAR A 2026 LOW AS THE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE U.K. BUILDS, TRADING DOWN .2% NOW AT 1.32. IT IS A BUSY DAY AHEAD. LET'S SET YOU UP. WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. WE ARE OUTSIDE NUMBER 10 DOWNING STREET, WAITING FOR A LET'S TURN TO EMERGE BEHIND ME. WE UNDERSTAND KEIR STARMER WILL SET OUT A TIMETABLE FOR HIS RESIGNATION. PRESSURE MOUNTED OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER LEADERSHIP RIVAL ANDY BURNHAM RESOUNDINGLY WON A SEAT IN PARLIAMENT LAST WEEK.

WENT TO SPEND THE MAJORITY OF STARMER'S CABINET NOW SEE IT AS INEVITABLE BURNHAM WILL REPLACE HIM, WHICH WILL BE BRITAIN'S SEVENTH PRO MINISTER IN THE TENURE SINCE THE BREXIT VOTE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL BE A CORONATION OR PROJECTED LEADERSHIP BATTLE. HOW MARKET FRIENDLY WILL BURNHAM BE AND WILL HE GO TO THE NATION TO SEEK HIS OWN MANDATE TO GOVERN? WITH ME IS OUR U.K. GOVERNMENT REPORTER JOE MAY. GOOD TO HAVE YOU WITH ME BRIGHT AND EARLY.

HOW SOON COULD WE SEE THIS PONY MA OUTSIDE NUMBER 10? JOE: THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SOME OF THE PRIME MINISTER IN A DECADE AND KEY DETAILS, WILL IT BE A CONTEST THAT WILL GO ON FOR WEEKS AND WEEKS WHERE ANDY BURNHAM ESTABLISHED, OR WILL KEIR STARMER SIGNAL IT IS A CORONATION. DETAILS TO COME, QUITE AN ASTONISHING MOMENT TO FIND OURSELVES HERE AGAIN. LIZZY: HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THE TRANSITION COULD BE BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER?

JOE: ONE IS IT COULD COME TO ABOUT MID JULY, WHICH IS WHEN PARLIAMENT GOES ON RECESS. THAT MIGHT BE THE MOMENT HE STANDS DOWN. THEY COULD BE EARLY SEPTEMBER WHEN THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY SESSION HAPPENS. IT COULD EVEN BE THE END OF SEPTEMBER WITH THE LADY -- LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCES. I THINK BURNHAM WOULD PREFER THE LATTER BECAUSE IT GIVES HIM MORE TIME TO PREPARE FOR GOVERNMENT. LIZZY: WE DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT HIS POLICIES ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE.

HE COULD DO WITH TIME TO GET THEM IN SHAPE. RIGHT NOW WE ARE WAITING FOR THE MARKET TO OPEN AT 8 A.M. WHICH OF THE MARKETS KNOW ABOUT A POTENTIAL PRIME MINISTER ANDY BURNHAM? JOE: I THINK WE CAN EXPECT A LEFTWARD DIRECTION ON ECONOMICS. WE KNOW HE HAS THIS BUSINESS FRIENDLY SOCIALISM AND MANCHESTER, ADVOCATING FOR MORE PUBLIC CONTROL, AND HE HAS SIGNALED HE IS OPEN TO HIGHER TAXES TO BE -- TO BE ON THE WEALTHY. AND FISCAL BORROWING RULES, HE SAID HE WOULD STICK TO THOSE, BUT NEVERTHELESS HE IS BEING ADVISED FROM THOSE WHO HAVE SIGNALED MORE OF AN OPENNESS TO MORE AND MORE.

I THINK THE SIGNAL TO MARKETS IS EXPECT A LITTLE MORE LEFT WING ECONOMICS IN GOVERNMENT FROM ANDY BURNHAM. LIZZY: COULD HE BE TEMPTED TO GIVE AWAY MORE IN TERMS OF SPENDING IF IT IS A PROJECTED -- PROTRACTED LEADERSHIP BATTLE? JOE: IF ANDY BURNHAM HAS TO PITCH HIMSELF TO LABOR ACTIVISTS , YOU COULD SEE A WORLD WHERE HE ENDS UP SAYING I WANT TO DO THIS, I WANT TO DO THAT TO AVOIDED BEING OUTFLANKED BY ANOTHER CONTENDER WHICH COULD EMERGE, SOMEONE FROM THE PARLIAMENTARY PARTY.

THEN WE WOULD HAVE A BURNHAM THIS IS -- THEN WE WOULD HAVE A BURNHAM VERSUS SOMEBODY CONTEST. LIZZY: DO YOU THINK ANYONE ELSE COULD GET OVER THE MARK? JOE: I THINK STREAMING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET 81. THERE COULD BE A DARK HORSE CANDIDATE AS WELL FOR SOME THERE IS ALSO TALK ABOUT SOMEON CONTINUING THE KEIR STARMER MANTLE, SOMEBODY FROM THE LABOR RATE BATTLE, SO BURNHAM DOES NOT JUST GET IT OFF AND HAS TO FIGHT FOR IT AND WIN AGAINST THE OTHER PARTS OF THE PARTY.

LIZZY: SON OF BURNHAM'S TEAM SAID IF HE HAD TO FIGHT FOR IT MAYBE IT WOULD BE MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAT HIS POPULARITY LASTS . THANK YOU, JOE, TAKING THE TEMPERATURE ALL THE WAY UNTIL WE SEE THE LECTERN. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. THE POUND IS TRADING NEAR ITS LOWEST LEVEL AS INVESTORS REACT TO THE EXPECTED RESIGNATION OF KEIR STARMER. LET'S GO TO OUR BLOOMBERG MLIV STARTED JUST FOR MORE. WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS MAKE OF THE TERM ALL HERE AT DOWNING STREET?

HOW CAN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE GILT MARKETS REACT AT THE OPEN?

GOOD MORNING, I THINK THE POUND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BACK FOOT. I THINK IT WAS DOWN 1.3% LAST WEEK. WE SHOULD EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TO CONTINUE. AND THE CURVE TO STEEPEN BECAUSE THE FRONT END IS PRETTY WELL ANCHORED BECAUSE OF THE BOE POLICY. THE LONG END WILL BE STEEPENING BECAUSE OF FISCAL UNCERTAINTY AROUND ANY BURNHAM -- ANDY BURNHAM, WHETHER IT WILL BE A TWO WAY FIGHT WITH STREETING OR AN OUTRIGHT CORONATION AND WHO HE WILL CHOOSE AS HIS CHANCELLOR.

PLENTY OF QUESTIONS FOR THE MARKETS TO WORK THROUGH. NO STRAIGHT ANSWERS YET. I THINK THAT WILL KEEP THE YIELD CURVE STEEPENING. I THINK THE 30 YEAR YIELD IS A KEY MATURITY TO WATCH FOR INVESTORS. THAT IS THE MATURITY THAT INVESTORS KIND OF TELEGRAPH AND TENSIONS ABOUT THE U.K. FISCAL UNCERTAINTY. I THINK IF THE IDEA THAT ANDY BURNHAM IS GOING TO BE ELECTED UNCONTESTED, I THINK THE YIELD WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 560, 565.

IF HE IS GOING TO CHOOSE A CHANCELLOR WHO IS MORE FISCALLY EXPERIMENTAL, I THINK WE COULD SEE 570-PLUS, LEVELS THAT ARE PUTATIVELY HIGH. WE HAVE SEEN THOSE LEVELS EARLIER THIS YEAR. WE COULD SEE A REVISIT OF THOSE LEVELS. LIZZY: SOME OF BURNHAM'S TEAM SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT BE RACHEL REEVES STAYING ON AS CHANCELLOR. SOME NAMES FLOATED INCLUDE THE ENERGY SECTOR, THE HOME SECRETARY. WE WILL SEE HOW THE GILT WILL REACT.

BROADLY THIS MORNING WE ARE SEEING STOCKS MOVE HIGHER AROUND THE POSITIVE HEADLINES OUT OF THE U.S. AROUND TALKS OVERNIGHT, FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE WEEKEND. WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO CHANGE THE INFLATION PICTURE FOR MARKETS? VEN: I DON'T THINK THE PRICES WILL TUMBLE BELOW $80 PER BARREL. THEY HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN THERE, BUT I DON'T HEAR AS MUCH ROOM FOR THEM TO TUMBLE MUCH MORE. I THINK THAT WILL CAPPED EXPECTATIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH INFLATION CAN MODERATE FROM THE CURRENT LEVELS.

THE FED ALREADY INCREASED ITS CORE PCE PROJECTIONS FROM 2.7 TO 2.3. THAT IS A HUGE SWING. IF YOU LOOK AT THE FRONT END OF THE TREASURY YIELD CURVE, IT HAS ADJUSTED A FAIR BIT THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. ON THAT NARRATIVE. I THINK THE 30 YEAR YIELD, ANOTHER CRUCIAL MATURITY, FROM THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE WE ARE AROUND 491. WE MAKE IT 5% AND REVISIT WHAT WE APPROACH LAST MONTH. I THINK THE YIELDS WILL BE PUTTING THE BRAKES ON THE STOCK RALLY.

LIZZY: OK, $79 PER BARREL IS WHERE WE TRADE ON BRENT. WE LOOK AHEAD TO THE CORE PC NUMBER LATER THIS WEEK. VEN RAM, THANK YOU FOR THE ANALYSIS. COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK: EUROPE," HOW THE U.S. AND IRAN ARE MAKING ENCOURAGING PROGRESS WITH THE PEACE TALKS. AND HOW MARKETS ARE REACTING TO A POTENTIAL RESIGNATION PLAN FROM U.K. PER MINISTER. WE WILL BE SPEAKING WITH THE HEAD OF RATES AT STONEX. STICK WITH US. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ LIZZY: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK: EUROPE."

THE U.S. AND IRAN HAVE MADE "ENCOURAGING PROGRESS IN TALKS ON A PEACE DEAL AND WILL CONTINUE TECHNICAL LEVEL DISCUSSIONS THIS WEEK. MEDIATORS QATAR AND PAKISTAN SAY THEY HAVE NOT AGREED ON A ROADMAP TO REACHING A FINAL DEAL . THE DEVELOPMENTS COME DESPITE A ROCKY START TO THE NEGOTIATIONS AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SUNDAY RENEWED HIS THREAT TO STRIKE IRAN IF HIS -- IT HAS BLOOD KEPT ATTACKING ISRAEL. JOINING ME IS ABEER. BRING US THE STATUS OF THE TALKS IN SWITZERLAND.

A ROCKY START YESTERDAY. ABEER:

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