乌克兰无人机袭击致俄罗斯多地燃油短缺

Alright. This past week, Ukraine sent a record number of drones targeting Russian oil refineries. At least a 194 drones were down over Moscow with some drones reaching the key Moscow refinery that supplies road fuel to the capital. Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks in an effort to bring the Kremlin into negotiating for the peace sorry, bring the Kremlin to the table to negotiate for peace. And as drone attacks are becoming more frequent, Russia is also having trouble with its oil output.

On June 11, OPEC published a report noting that in May, Russia was 690,000 barrels a day below the country's required level of crude output under an agreement with OPEC and its allies. For more on Russia, Andrew Krizner joined by Bloomberg News senior writer Stephanie Baker. She's also the author of the book Punishing Putin Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia. Stephanie, great to see you. Great to speak with you.

And I guess I should start with kind of the broad question here, which is how dire straits are there are they in Russia right now when it comes to energy access to energy and and these escalating prices? Well, there are widespread fuel shortages across Russia. More than 50 regions are reporting fuel shortages. And in Crimea, Russian occupied Crimea, they just suspended fuel sales to civilians. They're sequestering fuel supplies for the military, which I think is a significant step.

This is all the result of what Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky calls, the long range sanctions against Russia. They have taken into their own hands to strike Russia's oil refineries and ports to try to undermine Putin's ability to finance the war, and that is, increasingly effective because of, better drone capability, particularly mid range drone capability by the Ukrainians. And, you know, the estimates are that, Russia's refining rates are down between 2030%.

And Russia has suspended gasoline exports, through July at least, which is kind of a remarkable thing when you think about it. Russia is the second largest oil producer in the world for them to have to, take such dramatic actions after having been a, you know, a major gasoline exporter. It's really fascinating, and we've talked before about how Russia, oddly, has been able to kinda insulate its economy despite the sanctions regime, despite being kicked off SWIFT and these other implementations.

The Russian economy was doing better than a lot of people expected, but these oil strikes have really, really had an impact quite quickly. And I was reading that Russia is gonna be importing importing oil by sea for the first time in in how long? I don't know the answer to that. I'm hoping you do. And is that in itself quite significant? Yeah. Reportedly, they are planning to import gasoline by sea because of these, gas shortages caused by the refinery, explosions.

And remember, it's hard to sometimes get these refineries back up and running because of sanctions. They involve western parts. In some cases, there's not a lot of data. The Russian government has stopped publishing data on refinery rates. So it really strikes the heart of Putin's social contract. Right? When he took over in 2000, the deal was he would provide economic and political stability in exchange for Russians staying out of politics.

And he's been able to continue that through the war, partly through the record high state spending on the war effort, which caused the sugar rush in the Russian economy. But that is now unraveling in part because of building sanctions pressure, as well as, you know, these these refining attacks. And I think that is potentially gonna roll through the economy and cause the economy to slow down even more, spike inflation more.

But it, you know, has the potential to spark social unrest. I mean, it fuel shortages tend to do that. So I think this is one to watch very carefully. Steph, you've done such fine reporting on the the way that Ukraine has waged this war that the drone technology that they pioneered and and used. And I wonder if you kind of situate what we're seeing here in the the broader context of of the entire conflict. Using drones to attack Moscow is a a market departure from what we had seen in the past.

So I'm curious, is that a strategic move on Ukraine's part? Is it a technological advancement that's allowed them to to do that? How should we see this kind of encroachment on Moscow, which is, as you say, is is hitting at the heart of the the social compact that president Putin had with his people? Yeah. It really is The U Ukrainians, have the upper hand now because of their sophistication with producing these mid range drones and and, in many case, long range drones that the Russians are struggling to defend against.

And it's a combination of increasingly sophisticated Ukrainian drone capability with shaky Russian air defenses. There's some speculation that the the Russians are using, sort of new recruits for for, manning some of their anti missile defense, systems, and that's causing these weaknesses that are allowing Ukraine Ukrainian drones to get through. But more broadly, Russia is struggling to recruit to the frontline to replace those who've been pulled out to you know, by death or or or being injured.

You know, the casualty rate is is is higher. And I think that is showing Ukraine stronger and that that manpower advantage that the Russians had isn't as strong because of the Ukrainian drone capability. And I think that could feed through to the peace talks and and their ability to try to gain leverage to negotiate some kind of end to the war. So, yeah, Stephanie, before we let you go, talk to us about Putin himself and at what point he starts to possibly capitulate and realize that the internal pressures are such that he has to come to the table.

I read that Roman Abramovich, who's this big, you know, oligarch, former owner of the Chelsea football club, went to Zelensky and offered to try to mediate. That to me felt like a sea change. If these very powerful Russian magnates are suddenly seeing an impact their bottom line, could they be the ones to finally get Putin to the table? I think that was an attempt by Zelensky to open a channel. The the problem is that Putin does not seem interested in ending the war, and he's getting regular briefings by, Russian military officials, are giving him one, version of the story of what's happening on the front line.

I do think that the Ukrainian strategy of trying to bring the war home to Russia so that they can no longer ignore the effects of this war that's happening far away to to increase pressure, and opposition to the war. I think that is effective, and it is a very clear strategy by the Ukrainians. You know, the the Russians have been hitting Ukrainians far from the frontline with these attacks on civilian targets. They attacked this Orthodox church.

So you you're getting these, what is being billed as a response, but I think it's actually a very, astute Ukrainian military strategy to try to spark social and economic unra