全球石油库存逼近危险区，专家警告价格可能飙升

Well, joining us now is energy markets expert Dan Dicker. He's also the author of the book, Oil's Endless Bid, Taming the Unreliable Price of Oil to Secure Our Economy. Dan, it's great to speak with you. I'm gonna pull back the curtain a bit. You and I were in a green room, and and you admitted to me this is a dire time in global energy, the likes of which you haven't seen before. So let let's let's set the table with that. Give us a sense of how bad the picture is for global oil markets, global energy markets right now, and we we hear the president, president Trump saying, straights open. It's gonna be like a gusher. Oil's gonna be flooding out of there. What does that mean?

Yes. For the market, for the the price that people are paying at the pump as well. Right, David. So so what you have is you have the the the rhetoric of the president, obviously, jawboning a market where the physical realities are starting to assert themselves, where they hadn't so much for the last, you know, three months of this war. I mean, we basically had stockpiles, and I'm not talking about state run stockpiles. I'm talking about generic stockpiles that are held by oil companies. In some cases, they're they're, they're sovereign stockpiles, but they've been with they've been withdrawn from to try and cushion the blow of this export disaster, the likes of which, you know, I've never seen in my forty five year history of oil. I mean, there's six to 8,000,000 barrels of oil that's not getting to its source, on the global marketplace every day. This has been going on for a long time and continues to go on no matter what the heck is going on with with, you know, memorandums of understanding and and deals and and whatever Trump says is going on in the Strait Of Hormuz, which is not. And so you're down in the global stockpile area of about half a trillion barrels of oil globally. And and that is just incredibly significant towards, you know, what is what's going to happen in the marketplace if a huge amount of oil doesn't reach its targets at some point pretty darn soon. And even if it does, it might not be enough to to to stop what is a a tremendous, issue with global supply. So, you know, what I see in a marketplace is a bunch of and this is, you know, where I really come in where where there is some some insight I can provide. There's been a a jawboning, so there's been a trader's reluctance over the course of the entire war to pay up for oil that should be a heck of a lot more than a 110 or a $115 where it ran at its height. If if we had this kind of global supply shortage, you know, in normal days, you know, in the in the years that I've been trading it, it would have meant a price of oil far higher than than, you know, a 110 or a $115. And now what's happening is that the traders have been so frightened to own oil because, you know, Trump was announcing 32 deals, you know, every separate Sunday. There was a deal coming. When the deal finally came, you know, these traders weren't long, and now they're spectacularly short at $75.76 dollars a barrel. Now, to give you some perspective, this is exactly the range that the oil was in for two years prior to this war. We had been hovering between 55 and $75. I mean, it's the upper end of the range, but it was, you know, the part of the range when oil was as boring as I've ever seen in in twenty years. And and, your supplies were very steady, and and there was really nothing dynamically to to make the price of oil go up. And now we're at a place where the upper end of this deadly boring range that, for some reason, takes turn turn the risk premium of the supply from something that was being underpaid to to a relief premium that's being incredibly overpaid in my view. So, you know, looking at oil right now, particularly with the tenuous nature of this deal Yes. And what will happen with the straight, you know, I find that the marketplace right now and gas prices are being overly way overly optimistic to what likely will happen over the course of the next sixty days. Okay, Dan. You are speaking my language because this is something I say every time we have an oil person or a markets person. As someone who covers diplomacy, I keep looking at these MOUs and these tentative agreements that fall apart almost six days later. And I don't understand. It's like Lucy and the football, why people keep buying in every time there's messaging from DC or from The Middle East that this is gonna get solved When even if look. Even if the sixty day things holds, to me, it seems like you're still gonna have a higher cost for this product. Right?

Because as we were just talking to the UN secretary general, it is going to cost more to get people to be willing to go into The Gulf because there is a higher risk factor. It's gonna cost more to get mariners to to be on the ships because they don't wanna get stuck there for three months in case this all falls apart again. Do you foresee a higher price, a higher floor basically for just the cost of doing business in this region, and why isn't that be being reflected, in the oil markets?

Right. And and this is really the thing that I've I tried hard to translate to people outside of of the trader world because, you know, that's what I've done. That's been my life for the past forty five years. Understand if you're a trader. Try and understand for a second. If you see the fun a fundamental reason for oil to be a $120 and not $80, You would normally buy a market, and you'd go in there and you'd sit there and you'd buy oil at 80, $85.90 dollars. But what happens when you do that?

What's happened for the past three months? Every time you buy oil at $90.95 dollars, Trump announces some crazy you know, they've they've got the outlines of a deal. Oil falls 6 or $7 overnight, and you lose 6 or $7,000 for every lot of of oil that you're long. That's an instantaneous loss that you take. You sit there and you're sitting on a premium that the president of The United States with his mouth can destroy you with, every time you take a position like this. And, you know, after you do this two or three times in the market, which believe me, I haven't done because I I know what's coming, and I've I've seen this this story before. But, you know, I can see, you know, fellow traders there every time they go in, oh, this this this oil market's fundamentally worth a $125. And they're right, except for the fact that, you know, you can't get anybody to to significantly hold oil through it. There's no speculative reason. And we're driven, unfortunately, in the global markets by the speculators, the ones who are inside. We trade eight times more oil than there is physical oil in the world every month. We are insane. Yeah. Our price is tethered to what traders do, and the traders are not willing to to to buy oil for all the reasons that you've seen. Oil goes down to unreasonable prices. The question becomes, when does the physical reality of these low stockpiles actually hit the financial markets that are controlling the price of oil?

And unless this deal gets done, you know, to a much more firm degree, oil starts to flow seriously and rebuild some of those stockpiles that have been draining for the past three months, that physical market is going to assert itself in a way that we've never seen asserted itself before. And what that drives, of course, is it drives a price that doesn't go from 75 to $85. It's a price that goes in the in the space of a month from $75 to a $135, And that's why you've seen guys like Mike Worth at Chevron Yep. And, the Exxon guy, the vice president come out and say, look. When this happens, stockpiles are are a disaster, and it's really bad out there. Don't blame us because we've got nothing to do with it. It's not our fault. But when these stockpiles reach the physical reality of the futures markets Yeah. You're going to see a spike like you never saw before. Unless, of course, they manage to get these things,