特朗普清洗共和党异己,中期选举或反噬
Why Trump’s Republican Purge Might Backfire
Earlier this month, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said, "This is the party of Donald Trump." It's hard to disagree. Over the past few weeks of primary elections, Trump has tightened his grip on the Republican Party by ousting incumbent lawmakers deemed insufficiently loyal. From Kentucky to Texas and Louisiana to Indiana. With Trump boasting of a 100% endorsement record this season, White House Communications Director Steven Cheung posted online, "Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power. [ __ ] around, find out."
While Trump and his allies are clearly jubilant about their successful transformation of the Grand Old Party, he and the party are increasingly unpopular. And with crucial midterm elections rapidly approaching, Trump's remaking of the GOP could come at a cost. So, in this video, we're going to take a look at Trump's recent Republican purge and explain why it could backfire. The next issue of Our magazine is out very soon.
With this issue focusing on all of the wars Trump's been involved in during his second term. With each dot on the cover representing a different military intervention or strike. Inside, we run through each of the conflicts from Venezuela and Iran to Yemen and Ecuador. As well as us discussing what he's really doing. Pre-order your copy at too-long.news. So, let's jump straight in and go through some of the Republican lawmakers that Trump back candidates have managed to defeat in recent weeks.
In early May, Trump back challengers successfully unseated five Republican incumbent state senators in Indiana who had opposed Trump's push for the state to redraw its congressional map to boost Republican midterm prospects. An intervention by a sitting president into a state-level primary race might seem like overkill, but demonstrates that Trump's push for loyalty goes much deeper than just the national level. On the 16th of May, incumbent US Senator from Louisiana, Bill Cassidy, was defeated in the Republican primary.
He placed third, while Trump-backed candidate Julia Letlow came first and would advance to a runoff on the 27th of June with another candidate. Trump has long had it out for Cassidy after the Louisiana Senator voted to convict Trump in a 2021 Senate impeachment trial following the January 6th attack and later in 2023 called for Trump to drop out of the presidential race. Cassidy, a former physician, had been a senator since 2015 and last year became the chair of the Senate Health Committee, a position in which he has clashed with Health Secretary Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. over issues like vaccines. Three days later, on the 19th of May, Trump scored an even more satisfying victory when seven-term Republican Congressman Thomas Massie from Kentucky was defeated in his primary by Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Galligan. For Trump, Massie had been public enemy number one in the Republican Party as the libertarian-independent-minded Kentuckian was frequently at odds with the president.
Massie was among those leading the push to release the so-called Epstein files. He voted against Trump's tax cuts bill last year over deficit concerns, is a staunch opponent of Trump's military actions overseas in Venezuela and Iran, and is a vocal critic of Israel. The contest comfortably broke the record for the most expensive House primary in history with Federal Election Commission data showing that candidates and outside groups spent roughly $35 million combined.
But perhaps the most eye-opening outcome came from Texas. The Republican Senate primary pitted long-time Senator John Cornyn against contentious Texas Attorney General and staunch Trump ally Ken Paxton. Cornyn had narrowly beaten Paxton in a first round in early March but failed to win a majority of votes, so both went on to a runoff. During the runoff campaign, Trump endorsed Paxton despite intense lobbying from Cornyn's fellow GOP senators not to, and Paxton thus won the May 26th primary by nearly 28 points.
Now, it's worth making clear that Cornyn really isn't a Massie or even a Cassidy. Sure, Cornyn is a Bush era Republican, and in 2023 he suggested that Trump's time has passed, but he has gone to great lengths to extol his pro-Trump voting record and keep on Trump's good side, even proposing a bill to rename a Texas highway after the president. This was not enough to prevent a challenge by Paxton, nor to prevent Trump from endorsing the insurgent MAGA loyalist, with Trump describing Cornyn as a good man, but not supportive of me when times were tough.
The contest became the most expensive Senate primary campaign in US history, with nearly 130 million dollars spent on ads alone. For Trump, this revenge tour, as some have dubbed it, has been a roaring success and demonstrates the immense influence of his endorsement and his ability to mobilize financial resources and his base. But, we see several reasons why jubilation might be short-sighted. The first is electability.
While Trump clearly has a knack for backing winners in Republican primaries, his record of endorsement in general elections is less strong. For instance, at the 2022 midterms, some of his high-profile MAGA endorsements, like Kari Lake and Blake Masters in Arizona and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, proved to be poor candidates who lost to Democrats in key races. With the 2026 midterms approaching and the Democrats already holding a decent polling lead in the generic ballot and eyeing a blue wave, Trump may have just made red Texas a competitive race by ousting four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn for Ken Paxton.
For those who don't know, Paxton is a contentious guy, to put it mildly. A 2020 election denier, Paxton has a lot of baggage as Texas Attorney General. A fraud indictment, impeachment for bribery, and an acrimonious public divorce, to name just a few things. Democrats see Paxton as much more beatable than Cornyn. In fact, several polling aggregators put Democratic nominee James Talarico a few points ahead of Paxton. Even if Paxton wins Texas, that it is a competitive race at all will divert precious financial resources from other crucial races.
The second reason Trump's moves might backfire is legislative. Even though the likes of Congressman Massie and Senators Cassidy and Cornyn have been defeated in primaries, their terms run until January 2027. So, they still have months left in Congress and no longer have to worry about electoral retribution for crossing Trump. This small but growing pool of outgoing Republican lawmakers, which also includes some voluntary retirees, has been dubbed the Yolo Caucus by the press, and they have the potential to frustrate Trump's legislative agenda over the coming months.
With high-profile fights ahead on things like his ballroom, his $1.8 billion so-called anti-weaponization fund, cabinet vacancies that need filling, and more. Of course, someone like Massie has already been opposing much of Trump's agenda, so that will continue. But, giving regular Republicans like Cornyn and Cassidy a grudge and little reason to remain loyal may be a mistake. For example, just days after Cassidy lost his primary, he U-turned and voted with Democrats to rein in US military action in Iran.
And our final reason that Trump's purge of Republicans might backfire is the potential long-term impact on Republican survivability. As we've explained in several videos, Trump is really unpopular, with most trackers showing him approaching 60% disapproval with approval of about 38%. Trump commands fierce loyalty from a shrinking base, but for as long as that base keeps showing up in Republican primaries, the Republican Party will continue to be the party of Donald Trump.
This poses a serious challenge for the GOP, as tying itself to a lame duck, historically unpopular president, is not a recipe for long-term self-preservation. The latest issue of our magazine is out now. And if you want our best value ever, subscribing and using code summer 26 gets you your first copy for a
原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力