内塔尼亚胡面临政治危机：特朗普施压与联盟瓦解

It's been a bruising week for Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. On Monday, after announcing a plan to escalate the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Netanyahu was forced into a sudden and embarrassing climb down after a strongly worded phone call from US President Donald Trump. Unsurprisingly, this episode triggered uproar in Israel with opposition politicians accusing Netanyahu of failing to guarantee Israel's security in the north and turning Israel into essentially an American vassal.

This all comes at a particularly inopportune time for the Prime Minister, who is already struggling to keep a handle on his unwieldy coalition and is slipping in the polls. So, in this video, we thought we'd explain why Netanyahu is in a more difficult spot than he has been for some time and whether this could mark the beginning of the end for the great survivor of Israeli politics. Trump's war in Iran is just one of many instances of Trump's military actions spreading around the world.

In the latest issue of our magazine, we run through a timeline of all of Trump's strikes and interventions from Somalia to the Pacific to Nigeria. That's just some of 80 pages in the magazine because there's more in two long than you'd expect. Purchase your copy by clicking the link in the description. So, let's start by taking a quick look at what happened over the past couple of days. On Monday morning, Netanyahu announced that his government had ordered the Israeli military to strike targets in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, putting further strain on an already fragile ceasefire that Trump apparently forced on Israel back in April.

This didn't go down well with Iran. Iranian negotiators immediately signaled that they considered this an unacceptable violation of the ceasefire and threatened to withdraw from negotiations with the US. At the same time, Iranian state media claimed that Iran could both tighten its control over the Strait of Hormuz, where a small number of ships are still getting in and out, and if necessary, block the Bab al-Mandab, another global trade choke point between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, which has become increasingly important to global oil markets as an alternative export route for Arab producers affected by the disruption to Hormuz.

This was apparently enough to spook Trump, who called Netanyahu on Monday evening to demand the IDF pull back from Beirut. According to a report by Axios, Trump was furious, calling Netanyahu crazy and asking at one point what the [ __ ] are you doing? Now, that Axios report should probably be taken with a large pinch of salt. US presidents have a long history of overplaying their disagreements with Israeli counterparts to make themselves look tough, and in the past couple of months, Axios have acted as a conveniently credulous mouthpiece for the Trump administration, playing up the odds of a new peace deal or ceasefires whenever the market's looking a bit shaky.

It's also worth noting that Israeli sources, including the famously well-connected Israeli journalist Amit Segal, have essentially denied the report, insisting that the tone was professional if a bit tense. Nonetheless, whatever its exact tone or content, the call was apparently enough to get Netanyahu to back down, and on Monday evening, Trump posted on Truth Social that Israel will not attack Hezbollah, and Hezbollah will not attack them, before claiming minutes later that talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace.

Unsurprisingly, this episode was immensely embarrassing for Netanyahu and drew criticism from across the political spectrum. Naftali Bennett, the right-wing former prime minister widely regarded as Netanyahu's main rival in Israel's looming election, accused him of losing control over Israeli sovereignty. Yair Lapid, another former prime minister and leader of the opposition, who recently formed an electoral alliance with Bennett, accused him of turning Israel into a protectorate state.

Gadi Eisenkot, head of the centrist Yesh Atid party that's enjoyed a surge in the polls since Bennett and Lapid announced their alliance claimed there has never been a prime minister in Israel who accepted such a humiliating demand. Netanyahu even took flak from within his own coalition. His far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for instance, publicly urged him to ignore Trump and escalate against Hezbollah, which it should be said is what most Israelis apparently want.

In a post on X, Ben-Gvir stated, "You said that a strong prime minister tells the president of the United States yes when possible and no when necessary. This is the time to tell our friend President Trump no." This is obviously bad news for Netanyahu in and of itself, but it's especially bad for two additional reasons. First, it's put even more strain on Netanyahu's coalition, which has already functionally fallen apart.

The proximate issue here is that Netanyahu relies on two ultra-Orthodox parties for his parliamentary majority, who are demanding that Netanyahu protect an exemption for the ultra-Orthodox from mandatory military service. This exemption has been in place since Israel's founding as a state in 1948, but has become increasingly controversial as, thanks to their sky-high birth rates, the ultra-Orthodox population has ballooned and the demands on the IDF have grown.

Netanyahu tried to fudge the issue. In mid-2024, after the Supreme Court ruled that the status quo was essentially illegal, his government proposed a bill that would have nominally introduced conscription for the ultra-Orthodox, but contained so many caveats and opt-outs that something like 90% of ultra-Orthodox would have been able to get out of it if they wanted to. This went down terribly with just about everyone, but Netanyahu was able to temporarily shelve the issue after the war with Iran kicked off.

But last month, after Netanyahu apparently suggested deferring the bill beyond the next election, the ultra-Orthodox parties turned on him and voted with the other opposition parties to dissolve the Knesset early, paving the way for elections in September or early October. But, the second and perhaps more important reason that this episode is especially bad for Netanyahu is that it threatens to undermine his self-cultivated image as Israel's Mr.

Security. For context, arguably the main reason for Netanyahu's enduring electoral appeal in Israel is his long-cultivated image as the only politician who can truly guarantee Israel's security, as willing as any to go to war, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran, but uniquely able to coax the United States into getting involved as well. A year or so ago, this looked like a convincing pitch. Hamas had been thoroughly degraded in Gaza, Hezbollah's leadership had been decapitated, and Israel and the US essentially won the so-called 12-day war in June 2025, striking Iran's military and nuclear facilities with little blowback.

Today, things look very different. Hamas is still in control of Gaza. Hezbollah has proved a far more capable adversary than the IDF expected when they restarted the conflict a few months ago, and the US and Israel look unlikely to achieve their strategic objectives in Iran. Moreover, this week's events suggest that Trump might well impose a deal on Israel that would not only constitute a strategic failure vis-à-vis Iran, but also hinder Israel's ability to pursue strategic objectives in Lebanon and maybe even Gaza.

Of course, a lot depends here on what the US-Iran deal actually ends up looking like, and it would be premature to write Netanyahu off given his record. Nonetheless, if this does bring him down, Netanyahu will have dug his own grave insofar as he has spent his political career perpetuating an increasingly expansive understanding of security, which he's now proved unable to fulfill. The latest issue of our magazine is out now, and if you want our best value ever, subscribing and using code summer 26 gets you your first copy f

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