秘鲁10年10任总统：政治动荡与经济韧性的悖论

Peru just elected its 10th president in 10 years and did so by such an astonishingly close margin that it's basically statistically a tie. Tight results, and we're talking fractions of a percent here, have become something of a feature of Peruvian politics. And the country has been mired by a seemingly unending political crisis for basically a decade now. It's hard to say what the most remarkable fact about Peru's crazy politics is. the constant churn of leaders, its purpose-built prison for ex- leaders.

The three and nearly four consecutive elections where Ko Fujimori, daughter of the former autotocrat Alberto Fujimorei, has been defeated by the narrowest of margins. Or perhaps the most remarkable thing is the fact that the provian economy hasn't seemed to have noticed any of this. So, in this video, we're going to explain Peru's frankly insanely tumultuous politics. the recent election result which may have finally delivered the younger Fujimorei a victory and whether it will actually change anything going forward. [music] Anxieties about material self-sufficiency, a turn towards protectionism, great powers asserting their spheres of influence.

This all looks suspiciously similar to the buildup to the First World War. In the latest issue of our magazine, we explore the remarkable parallels between now and then and ask whether we can avoid a third one. That's just one of the 80 pages in the magazine because there's more to too long than you'd expect. Purchase your copy by clicking the link in the description. So, to understand just how extended Peru's political crisis has been, we need to go back to around 2016 and run through the rapid succession of presidents that have been and gone.

In 2016, center-right Pedro Pablo Kazinski narrowly defeated hardright Ko Fujimorei by less than a quarter of a percentage point. Amid corruption probes and congressional pressure, Kazinski resigned in 2018. He was then succeeded by his vice president, Martin Viscara, who in 2020 was impeached and removed, accused of influence pedaling. Bisgar's successor, head of Congress, Manuel Marino, lasted just 5 days before resigning amid anti-government demonstrations and the death of two protesters.

Congress then made Francisco Sagasti president, who saw out the end of what would have been Kazinsk's presidential term. At the 2021 election, leftist Pedro Castillo narrowly defeated Fujimori by a quarter of a percentage point, her third consecutive defeat since 2011. Castillo lasted less than a year and a half before his botched power grab resulted in his impeachment and removal in late 2022. His vice president, Dina Bulawatti, then became president and endured absurdly bad approval ratings for nearly 3 years before being impeached in October 2025.

She was then replaced by Joseé Harry, who was impeached in early 2026 after 130 days in office for failing to disclose meetings with Chinese businessmen. Joseé Maria Balcazar then became president, instantly facing controversy for his past comments supporting child marriage, among other things. Nevertheless, he has seen out the remainder of the term, bringing us to this month's election. So, why has Peru rattled through so many presidents?

Well, the Peruvian Constitution makes it really quite easy to impeach a president with Congress able to impeach and remove them for quote moral incapacity. That combined with political polarization, corruption, scandals, and executive legislative tensions goes some way to explaining it. Through all of this political instability, it's fair to question who's actually been running the country. Normally, it's the president, but that's not really been true of the recent batch.

In fact, it's Congress that's been in charge. And democratic backsliding has been a defining feature of these recent years. unusual in that it hasn't happened under a strong man, but rather under congressional rule. Congress, which is deeply unpopular with the public, has pushed through a series of controversial reforms that critics say undermine the separation of powers and rule of law, as well as concentrating further power in the legislature.

Among these were the creation of a Senate and the lifting of a ban on congressional lawmakers running for reelection. Despite the fact that Peruvian voters had overwhelmingly rejected these ideas at a 2018 referendum. Meanwhile, organized crime and violence has climbed. Corruption has become further entrenched and presidents have served only at Congress's pleasure. While Fujimori has been a perennial loser, her faction and its conservative allies in Congress have cultivated and exerted significant influence, responsible for propping up and forcing out presidents while pushing through controversial reforms and exerting pressure on the judiciary and civil society.

Despite all of the political volatility, though, Peru's mining heavy economy has proven surprisingly resilient and insulated from the chaos. This is in part because the mining industry has kept chugging along producing copper, gold, and other resources that account for about 10% of GDP with the high global prices of these resources being a good thing for Peru. Furthermore, while there has been a revolving door in the presidential palace, Peru's central reserve bank has been under consistent leadership of Julio Velad for more than 20 years, effectively shadowrunning the economy while outlasting 10 presidents.

Given the procarity of the job and Peru's propensity to prosecute and imprison its former presidents, you might be surprised anyone actually wants the top job. And yet this year there are record 36 candidates for the president on the first round ballot in April. Ko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sanchez qualified for a runoff with just 17 and 12% of the vote respectively. As we've said, Ko is the daughter of the 1990s autotocrat Alberto Fujimori and is the heir and leader of Fujimorismo, a right-wing populist ideology centered on executive authority, neoliberal free market economics, social conservatism, and especially law and order.

Sanchez, meanwhile, served in the cabinet of now jailed Pedro Castillo. Seeking greater state control of natural resources and a rewrite of the Fujimora era constitution, Sanchez, like Castillo, has courted support among disaffected rural and indigenous voters. So last Sunday, Peruvians went to the polls for the runoff and delivered yet another nailbiting result. At the time of recording, with 98% of votes counted, Fujimori leads with 50.002% 0002% of the vote to Sanchez's 49.998, a difference of just over 600 votes.

Fujimi looks to have clinched it, but we might be waiting weeks for an official final result given that roughly 1.7% of ballots have been flagged for review. This is an astonishingly close result and effectively a tie. So, will the outcome actually change anything? Well, a Sanchez victory, which looks very unlikely at this point, would have likely extended Peru's political crisis. He would hardly have a popular mandate at all and would face spooked markets and investors.

And Fujimorus and their allies in Congress would disrupt, frustrate, and perhaps end his presidency early, as has happened before. Conversely, Fujimori, the presumptive winner, will have a better shot of being the first to finish a presidential term for a decade thanks to her sway in Congress and a more businessfriendly reputation. However, she won't necessarily have an easy ride. Her almost non-existent margin of victory, likely secured thanks to the support of overseas voters, with Sanchez seemingly winning the Peru-based electorate, will raise questions about her legitimacy and mandate.

Furthermore, Anti Fujimorei sentiment runs deep, especially among those who suffered human rights abuses under her father. And as analyst James Bosworth points out, Peru might be a 50/50 country, but there are parts of the country, particularly in the southern rural Andes, which voted overwhelmingly against her and will be hard to con

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