全球股市谨慎收尾强势一周

Yeah, I think it's I mean, it's a sad it's a sad thing, I would say, because of all the human sort of tragedies going on around the world, but it feels like volatility is becoming increasingly normalized. And that's exactly what we see with our conversation with clients. And I mean practically, you see it in markets, but we see it in parallel in clients behavior. So, you know, opposed to Covid, you saw a market reaction -30% post Ukraine, -20 post Liberation Day -15 and post the recent Middle Eastern conflicts minus ten.

So you see that clients are just increasingly resilient and steadfast with what they're doing, why they're doing it, and sticking to convictions. So what is the conviction? One of the trades that we saw when, you know, the tariffs were initially, uh, um, put out last year was, uh, some asset flows out of the U.S., uh, into other parts of the world, including in big way, Europe. Is that still the sentiment out there, or is that reversed a little bit in your mind?

What's really interesting. So I think two things. First of all, indeed that that happened, and I think Europeans were very excited because it's been a long time coming. We've been talking about systematic valuation mismatches between Europe, US, etc. but then something happened. And what happened was of course, we've had this amazing earnings bonanza. And that's especially driven by the U.S.. U.S. companies, U.S. equities again.

Um, year to date it's been an amazing quarterly earnings season. And I think that is just reforged the notion that European companies are just not able to grow at the speed of U.S. companies. So, I mean, 20% earnings growth for U.S. equities this year is expected ten max, 15 for Europe. So I think that makes things tricky. On the other hand, what's interesting, if you talk about Europeans and how Europeans are deploying their capital.

Number one, we're seeing a lot more Europeans start to actually invest. And this is a really important thing. And number two, you do see quite a home bias. You do see that Europeans like to buy Europe. We do notice this also this year, you know, and I think this is a brilliant, brilliant statement. And in America, our understanding is that Europe believes in American technology, Europe believes in American, uh, initiative, innovation and the rest.

What's the first derivative of that right now? Is Europe leaning into America into 2027? I think Europe, I think there's two things. First of all, we've waited for a long time for the continent of Europe to basically leave. I call it leaning in into capitalism, right? Really putting capital to work. We have trillions lying in deposits, and the US versus Europe is a very different story, right? The average European household has less than a third of the wealth invested, the average U.S. household more than half.

Um, so number one, you are seeing that Europeans are really starting to invest. We don't have the 401k system that you have in the US. So these are deliberate choices that are being increasingly made also by younger populations, which is great. The feeling towards the US from Europe is talking about earnings growth. I think what's happening is we are in a world where, you know, we used to be very demand driven in the last decade.

And I think what's happening now, supply is the new demand. Right. So all these enormous supply constraints, the need for compute, the need for data centers, etc., and all the AI technology, you see, there are just these U.S. champions, and Europe is just keen to get involved and keen to deploy capital in that way. So I think Europeans are very pro us constructive on growth that comes out of US companies, but they don't want to neglect their own continents.

And one final question. I want to dive back to the economic history of the London School of Economics. This is the model is a war ends and there's like celebration and all that is there should be with any ending war. And then there's a vector of disinflation and at times outright deflation, should we expect, given the headlines. That was an end of this middle war in Iran, within the eastern Mediterranean, that we're going to be surprised by some form of tone of disinflation.

You know, it's interesting because we've indeed been walking a disinflation path. Then this conflict spiked up, pricing, etc. we've even seen the ECB have to adjust rates in response. But indeed, if you know, if things are settling down, which they seem to be, that can bring us back to the path. What is interesting though, I um, which we, I think we all believe will be a disinflationary force. It does feel like it's going to be inflationary before deflationary.

And back to what I was saying earlier. There is a radical issue when it concerns supply shortages, shortage of power, shortage of compute, shortage of labor. And, you know, in a less of a globalized labor mobility world, etc.. And this, this supply shortage, I do still think has an inflationary edge to it.