美国PCE通胀数据前瞻：预计年率4.1%

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>> The PCE will be top of mind. What's good though is that CPI and PPI are used as the primary input for PCE inflation. So, even going into last week's FOMC meeting, central bankers had a pretty good feel for what we're likely to see in this upcoming personal income and outlays and PCE inflation report. And frankly all the data that are going to be included in this report which covers everything from income to spending to consumer price inflation uh based on the personal consumption expenditures basket. All of that data is basically going to affirm the relatively hawkish stance that we heard from Kevin Worsh and that we saw in the dot plot released by the broader FOMC. >> Okay. So for those who might not be closely keeping score on what's fed into PCE, I think from uh the CPI and PPI data you alluded to, we are still well above target when it comes to the Fed's uh 2% rate that it's shooting for. Right. >> Absolutely. So we're expecting to see about 0.5% monthly headline PCE inflation. That's going to boost the annual PCE inflation rate to about 4.1%. Now core inflation is a little bit more tame about 0.4% core inflation on the month and that'll boost the year-on-year rate to about 3.4%. So still a significant overshoot uh even by the Fed's preferred measures. >> Okay. So how are we looking then at the trajectory for inflation right now?

Now that we have something of a resolution in the Middle East, the oil is starting to flow through the straight of Hormuz. Does that affect how you as an economist are thinking about the overall trajectory of inflation at this point?

>> I actually think that the May inflation readings and the PCE inflation rating is the last real inflation reading for the month of May. Uh I think that those May numbers are basically going to be the local peak that we see for inflation. I'm expecting to see some disinflation coming in June and thereafter. And as you mentioned uh you know the memorandum of understanding the reopening of the straightforward moves both help it should reduce the energy price pressures that have been boosting headline inflation and even bleeding into the core a little bit but beyond that it looks like we're past peak tariff pass through. If you rewind the clock a year it feels like a lifetime ago. Yeah, but we were uh thinking about liberation day. We were thinking about the implementation of tariffs. We saw a major spike in the average effective tariff rate which had been boosting core goods prices over the last year. But now it seems like that's starting to fall out of the year-on-year inflation measures. We're starting to see some moderation in core goods prices. We're also seeing firms face a little bit of push back uh when they try to pass through higher core goods prices to consumers. So all told, we have those two factors in play mostly on the good side where falling energy prices in June and favorable base effects as we pass through peak tariff pass through uh are going to result in a little bit of uh disinflation in starting in June and then probably continuing throughout the second half of the year. That's so of course barring any sort of escalation uh or reescalation of the war in Iran. Certainly. I mean, that's a a a key uh wild card. But with all that said, Stuart, I think one of the last times we spoke, you were thinking that the uh the Fed could have uh pretty significant room to stay on pause, if not cut in the months to come. After what we heard from the chairman last week, is that still your view?

>> Look, I think that the Fed's going to do their best to sit on their hands. We definitely saw from the dots. We saw from the forecasts included in the summary of economic projections. We also heard it in the chairman's voice in his near singular focus on price stability rather than employment. All of those looked a little bit uh a little bit hawkish. That's certainly the case. I'll have to concede that point. But one thing that I want everybody to be aware of to really fully understand that it's not clear to us and it's certainly not clear to policy makers whether we're seeing a lot of cyclical strength driving economic activity or where it's mostly just structural transformation. So if we're looking at the totality of the data layoffs and unemployment are low but hiring is really concentrated in industries that have structural tailwinds like healthcare for example. Investment is hot, but that's mostly in industries that are focused on onshoring and participating in the AI buildout. Residential construction, for example, is really crummy. We saw that just last week with housing starts. Uh inflation pressures, as I mentioned, were mostly downstream of tariffs, chip shortages, the Iran war, and so the disinflation uh that