万斯警告以色列不要攻击其“唯一强大盟友”

THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

HE BELIEVES IN THIS DEAL, HE IS GOING TO SEE IT TO COMPLETION AND IF THE IRANIANS DO NOT COMPLY, WE HAVE EVERY SINGLE TOOL. THAT'S MESSAGE NUMBER ONE. HAVE FAITH IN THE PRESIDENT'S ABILITY GIVEN THAT HE HAS GOTTEN US THIS FAR TO TAKE US THE FINAL STEP. JOE: TONIGHT IN DEFENSE OF A DEAL, THE WHITE HOUSE DEFENDING PRESIDENT TRUMP'S MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH IRAN, CALLING IT A WIN-WIN AMID CRITICISM IN WASHINGTON AND ABROAD AS A CLOCK BEGINS FOR NEGOTIATION, WHAT COMES NEXT?

WE WILL SPEAK WITH NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR JOHN BOLTON. VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE ISSUING A WARNING FOR ISRAEL OFFICIALS CRITICIZING THE IRAN DEAL. DON'T ATTACK YOUR MOST POWERFUL ALLY. WHAT THAT MESSAGE SAYS ABOUT THE LIMITS OF U.S.-ISRAEL ALIGNMENT AS TRUMP PUSHES FOR A DIPLOMATIC OFF-RAMP WITH TEHRAN. D.C.'S ZOHRAN MAMDANI MOMENT THICK LAYERS GEORGE WINNING THE PRIMARY, MARKING A SHARP LEFT TURN FOR THE NATION'S UP A POTENTIAL CLASH WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP THREATENED A FEDERAL TAKEOVER IF SHE IS VICTORIOUS.

WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT NEW LEADERSHIP. WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER." KAILEY: THE CLOCK HAS STARTED ON A 60 DAY WINDOW FOR THE U.S. AND IRAN TO NEGOTIATE THE DETAILS OF THE PEACE DEAL 524 HOURS AGO INCLUDING THE FATE OF THE STOCKPILE OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM. ALSO BRINGS WITH WILLINGNESS TO HONOR THIS MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING AND END MILITARY OPERATIONS IN LEBANON. AFTER 60 DAYS WHO CONTROLS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WILL IRAN SEEK TO IMPOSE TOLLS?

THAT IS WHAT WAS ASKED OF VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE TODAY IN THE WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING ROOM.

THE MOU GUARANTEES SIX NEWS PASSAGE BUT AFTER THAT IT IS A REGIONAL DIALOGUE WITH IRAN DECIDING THE FUTURE GOVERNANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. ALSO THE GULF STATES WILL NOT ALLOW ANY KIND OF TOLLS. HOUSTON AND YOU MUST FIGHT TO KEEP A CAN OF POP RIVER AND KEEP AWAY FUTURE TRAFFIC AND ARE YOU GOING TO LEAVE IT TO THE BATTLE?

INTERNATIONAL WATERWAYS SHOULD BE SHRILL TOLLS. THE FINAL NEGOTIATIONS CAN SET THE TERMS OF WHAT COMES AFTER. VECTOR GROUP MOU CONTEMPLATES THE IRANIAN JEWISH COALITION WILL FIGURE OUT A PROPER SECURITY FRAMEWORK IN THE FUTURE. WE DON'T EVER WANT THIS TO HAPPEN AGAIN IT IS NOT ABOUT TOLLING. THE STRAITS ARE NEVER USED A FEDERAL COURT FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. IT IS NOT ABOUT THE IRANIAN LAW. IT IS NOT LOOKING THE SOLUTION INVOLVES -- THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A FINAL DEAL.

I KEEP COMING BACK TO THIS STRUCTURAL POINT OF THIS NEGOTIATION WHICH IS THAT WE HAVE ALL THE CARDS. IF THE IRANIANS WANT THE BENEFIT OF THE BARGAIN, THEY HAVE TO GIVE US THE THINGS THAT ARE NECESSARY TO GET THOSE BENEFITS. JOE: WE HAVE ALL THE CARS, THE VICE PRESIDENT IN CONVERSATION WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS. THAT MOU SIGNED BY THE PRESIDENT IS STILL FACING CRITICISM FROM SO-CALLED IRAN FROM SO-CALLED HAWKS IN WASHINGTON INCLUDING JOHN BOLTON.

WE TALKED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF AN AGREEMENT AND THE DEAL.

IT CONSTITUTES A REAL DEFEAT FOR THE UNITED STATES. WE HAD SUBSTANTIAL MILITARY SUCCESS ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP'S OBJECTIVE WAS. AFTER THAT SUCCESS WE HAVE NOW FOUND OURSELVES IN A TRAP OF TRUMP'S OWN MAKING BECAUSE OF THE IRANIAN EFFORT TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE RIGHT ANSWER. I THINK IT KICKS A LOT OF THE BIG ISSUES LIKE THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM, THE BALLISTIC MISSILE AND DRONE PROGRAMS DOWN THE ROAD AND IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR THAT IT EVEN OPENS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN A COHERENT WAY.

WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. THIS IS A VERY ILL-ADVISED AGREEMENT FROM A STRATEGIC POINT OF VIEW AND IT BENEFITS TRUMP POLITICALLY AT HOME BUT LONGER-RANGE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONALLY ARE ALL BAD. KAILEY: AS YOU CHARACTERIZE THIS AS A DEFEAT FOR THE UNITED STATES, ARE YOU WILLING TO DECLARE THAT ALREADY WHEN WE HAVE NOT EVEN ENTERED THE 60 DAY NEGOTIATING PERIOD? SHOULD THERE NOT BE SOME BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THAT THE U.S. CAN END UP WITH A DEAL BENEFICIAL AT THE END OF THIS?

I THINK IT WAS A MISTAKE TO ALLOW IRAN TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO BEGIN WITH. THERE IS A LOT OF HISTORY HERE MUCH OF WHICH I DISAGREE WITH THE WAY THE U.S. CARRIED IT OUT. IF YOU ASK ME WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO AS AN ALTERNATIVE, I WOULD SAY THE ALTERNATIVE IS INSTEAD OF SAYING TO IRAN WE AGREE THAT YOU BASICALLY WILL BE ABLE TO TURN ACCESS TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON AND OFF LIKE A LIGHT SWITCH WHICH IS THE IMPRESSION THEY COME AWAY WITH, WE OPENED THE ARAB SIDE OF THE GULF WITH MILITARY FORCE.

WE WERE GETTING SHIPS THROUGH, A SMALL NUMBER WHICH SAYS TO ME THAT WE HAVE THE CAP ABILITY TO GET MORE SHIPS THROUGH IF WE HAD APPLIED OURSELVES. WHILE DOING THAT WE KEEP THE BLOCKADE ON IRANIAN OIL SHIPMENTS SO THEY ARE NOT EARNING ANY INTERNATIONAL REVENUES. WE ARE GOING TO FUND THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARD WITH THE PROCEEDS FROM THE OIL THAT IRAN IS ABOUT TO SELL. THAT REGIME WILL NOT USE THE MONEY TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE OF IRAN.

IT WILL USE THE MONEY TO RE-ENTRENCH THEMSELVES IN POWER AND REBUILD THEIR CAPABILITIES. JOE: IT IS NOT JUST THE MONEY FROM THE OIL AMBASSADOR. THE MOU SAYS A 60 DAY TIMELINE TO FINALIZE THE DEAL BUT THE TECH CALLS FOR FROZEN FUNDS TO BE RELEASED IMMEDIATELY. COULD THAT TRANSFER HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE?

I THINK THAT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. THIS IS A SELF-INFLICTED WOUND IF THERE EVER WAS ONE. I DO NOT DOUBT THAT AT SOME POINT FROZEN ASSETS WOULD GO BACK TO IRAN. I WOULD RATHER SEE THOSE ASSETS GO BACK TO A GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED BY THE PEOPLE INSTEAD OF A BUNCH OF AUTHORITARIAN RELIGIOUS FANATICS THAT ARE STILL VERY STRONGLY OF THE VIEW THAT THE UNITED STATES IS THE GREAT STATE AND I WOULD NOT GIVE THOSE PEOPLE A DIME.

KAILEY: THE PRESIDENT CONTENDS THAT IF THIS NEGOTIATION OVER 60 DAYS DOES NOT GO WELL OR IF THERE IS NOT GOOD BEHAVIOR FROM THE IRANIANS, WE COULD ALWAYS JUST BOMB THEM AGAIN, TO USE HIS WORDS. BUT BOMBING THEM THE FIRST TIME DID NOT SEEM TO GET US WHERE WE WANTED. WOULD A SECOND MILITARY CAMPAIGN ACCOMPLISH WHAT YOU WOULD HAVE LIKED TO SEE THE U.S. ACCOMPLISH HERE?

I WOULD NOT HAVE STOPPED AT THE FIRST CAMPAIGN. CLEARLY, IT DID NOT ACHIEVE ALL THAT WE WANTED TO. KAILEY: WAS THAT NOT EVIDENCE THAT WE CANNOT BOMB THEM INTO SUBMISSION?

I THINK WE CAN DO A LOT MORE. THE QUESTION IS CAN WE DO ENOUGH TO DESTROY THE INSTRUMENTS OF IRANIAN STATE POWER SO THAT OPPONENTS INSIDE THE COUNTRY CAN HELP BRING THE REGIME DOWN FROM INSIDE. AND WE DID NOT DO NEARLY ENOUGH. IN FACT, WE DID CLOSE TO NOTHING TO HELP OPPONENTS OF THE REGIME. PART OF THE IDEA FOR EXAMPLE TO HELP THE KURDS WAS STOPPED BY THE PRESIDENT OF TURKEY CALLING PRESIDENT AND ASKING HIM TO STOP.

THAT IS WHY I SAY WE ARE IN THE CUSP OF A POLICY THAT WAS ILL-CONCEIVED FROM THE BEGINNING. BUT THE IDEA THAT IT IS SOMEHOW PROVIDING RESOURCES TO THE CURRENT REGIME IN IRAN IS GOING TO CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIOR OR AS JD VANCE SAYS, WE EXPECT IT WILL CHANGE THEIR BEHAVIOR, IT IS JUST A FANTASY. THEY HAVE NOT CHANGED FOR 47 YEARS. WHY DO WE THINK THEY WILL START NOW? JOE: YOU MENTIONED VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE. SOME ARE CALLING THIS THE VANCE PEACE DEAL.

YOU SAW HIM IN THE BRIEFING ROOM FOR ONE HOUR TRYING TO SELL THE COMPONENTS OF THE DEAL, JUSTIFY ELEMENTS OF THE DEAL. LINDSEY GRAHAM IS CALLING JD VANCE THE ARCHITECT OF THE DEAL. THE PRESIDENT WAS ASKED ABOUT THIS YESTERDAY AND JOKINGLY WE PRESUME SUGGESTED THAT HE MIGHT BLAME JD VANCE IF THIS DOES NOT GO WELL. IS THE VICE PRESIDENT BEING SET UP HERE?

HE APPEARS TO HAVE EMBRACED THE ROLE AND ONE THING THAT I'VE SEEN IN A NUMBER OF HIS COMMENTS IS THE VITRIOL IN HIS ATTACKS ON ISRAEL. IT IS BAD ENOUGH WHEN YOU ARE IN A DIFFICULT PERIOD OF TIME WITH A VALUABLE ALLY. BUT TO SAY AS I THINK HE DID THAT ISRAEL WAS BUILT WITH AMERICAN MONEY, I DON'T THINK THAT WILL SIT WELL WITH NOT JUST ISRAELIS BUT A LOT OF AMERICANS WHO VIEW ISRAEL AS AN IMPORTANT ALLY. LISTEN, IF HE WANTS THIS, HAVE AT IT.

IF HE DOES NOT WANT IT, HE WILL HAVE TO FIND HIS OWN WAY OUT OF IT. KAILEY: AS WE CONSIDER ISRAEL, THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE WANTS THE CEASE-FIRE TO INCLUDE

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