美银CEO：印度尚未走出困境，改革是关键

HASLINDA: THAT IS KEY. STICK AROUND. WE HAVE OUR EXCLUSIVE GUEST TODAY, BANK OF AMERICA INDIA'S CEO. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MACRO PICTURE, IT IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. PERHAPS THE WEATHER ASIDE IT SEEMS LIKE IF, YOU HAVE BEEN IN EXIT FROM INDIA THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO JUMP IN. THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME ON THE PROGRAM. IT IS TOUGH TO TOP MENAKA'S SYNOPSIS, BUT I WILL SUGGEST WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS YET. YES THE DEAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS A WELCOME RELIEF.

YES, THE POLICY MEASURES TAKEN BY THE GOVERNMENT WILL CERTAINLY HELP, BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET. TO ELABORATE ON THAT, WHEN YOU GO BACK 18 MONTHS, THE STARTING POINT IS INDIA'S VALUATIONS WERE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE, AND THEY ARE NEVER ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE KIND OF SELLOFF WE SAW, BUT WHAT WE THEN HAD WAS THOSE VALUATIONS COMPOUNDED BY EARNINGS MISSING EXPECTATIONS FOR CORPORATE INDIA. THAT WAS THE STARTING POINT.

THEN IT WAS COMPOUNDED BY A WHOLE HOST OF OTHER ISSUES. BOARD CONFLICTS, THE RISE OF AI AND THE QUESTION MARKS IT HAD IN PEOPLE'S MINDS ABOUT WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE INDIAN ECONOMY, AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE CRISIS IN THE MIDWEST AND MIDEAST. THIS WAS NOT OF INDIA'S MAKING, BUT ALL OF THOSE COMBINED TO CAUSE FII'S TO HEAD FOR THE DOOR. FII OWNERSHIP IN INDIA AT A 14 YEAR LOW. THE RUPEE UNTIL RECENTLY WAS AT A HISTORICAL LOW.

THAT REFLECTED THE UNEASE INVESTORS HAD ABOUT THE INDIAN ECONOMY. COMING TO YOUR POINT ABOUT WHETHER THIS IS A TURNING POINT OR INFLECTION POINT, UNEQUIVOCALLY THE DEAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS SOMETHING WE SHOULD ALL BE CHEERING, NOT JUST FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNDERLYING HUMAN TRAGEDY THAT WAS UNFOLDING AS WELL. WE SHOULD ALL WELCOME THAT. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT TAKE AWAY SOME OF THE SECULAR PRESSURES INDIA FACES ON A CORPORATE BASIS.

WHILE VALUATIONS HAVE CORRECTED FROM TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGES AND ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HISTORICAL AVERAGES, THE REALITY IS 21 TIMES, YOU CAN GET GROWTH ELSEWHERE AT A LOW MODEL. INDIA IS NOT CHEAP YET. VALUATIONS ARE NEVER ENOUGH FOR PEOPLE TO BUY OR TO SELL. IT PROVIDES AN EXIT OR ENTRY POINT. THEN YOU NEED CATALYSTS. THERE IS A VERY SHORT-TERM ONE. AS WE DO IT EVERY TIME AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR, WE LOOK UP TO THE HEAVENS AND PRAY.

BUT BEYOND THAT, WHAT DOES AI MEAN FOR THE INDIAN ECONOMY? I.T. SERVICES SLOW DOWN. WHAT ELSE IS IN OUR POWER TO CHANGE? HASLINDA:HASLINDA: YOU TALK ABOW EARNINGS HAVE NOT SEEN A BOTTOM YET. IF YOU TAKE A LONGER-TERM PERSPECTIVE, FUNDAMENTALS ARE INTACT. WHY NOT? YOU ARE RIGHT, WHICH IS WHY, IF I MAY, DESPITE THIS DOOM AND GLOOM AND EVEN BEFORE WE HAD THE TREATY -- I BEG YOUR PARDON, THE IRAN DEAL ANNOUNCED, WE HAD A CONFERENCE TWO WEEKS AGO.

WE HAD A VERY STRONG TURNOUT. IN MY MIND, I WAS NOT SURE IF INVESTORS WOULD SHOW UP. TO MY PLEASANT SURPRISE, WE HAD A 30% INCREASE IN INVESTORS ATTENDING THE CONFERENCE RELATIVE THE LAST YEAR. WHAT THAT TELLS YOU, LIKE YOU, THEY ARE PREPARED TO SHARPEN THEIR PENCILS, DO THEIR HOMEWORK, TRY TO ESTABLISH IF THIS IS THE RIGHT POINT TO ENTER INDIA. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN GOING FORWARD? IS INDIA STILL THE FASTEST GROWING LARGE ECONOMY IN THE WORLD?

ABSOLUTELY, UNEQUIVOCALLY, BUT INVESTORS WANT TO KNOW IF THAT PACE OF GROWTH IS SUSTAINABLE AND TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS TO I.T. SERVICES GOING FORWARD. I WANTED TO ADD TO THAT. I FEEL LIKE THERE IS THIS A GUSH OF CAPITAL MOVING TO THE WEST TO MAKE THESE BIG AI BETS. NOT JUST THE SPACEX IPO OR THE OPENAI OR ANTHROPIC IPO, BUT THE HUGE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL TECHNOLOGY IS RAISING IN THE WEST, AND I WONDER WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO MAKE INDIA LOOK ATTRACTIVE IN CONTRAST TO THIS WILD ROSE WE SEE AROUND AI.

THAT'S A REALLY GOOD QUESTION, BY THE WAY. FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, AND A LOT OF THE THINGS THAT NEED TO BE DONE HAVE ALREADY BEEN STARTED. THIS QUESTION ABOUT IF AI WILL CAUSE I.T. SERVICES TO SLOW, WE WILL NOT HAVE AN ANSWER FOR A WHILE, SO THEN THE QUESTION IS TO SAY, WHAT CAN YOU ACTUALLY DO? THE SHORT ANSWER IS REFORM. WE ALL KNOW THAT IN INDIA, ADVERSITY IS THE MOTHER OF REFORM. WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS IS A VERY PROACTIVE, FRONT-FOOTED GOVERNMENT THAT HAS STRUCK A NUMBER OF BILATERAL TRADE DEALS, MORE IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS THAN IN THE 10 YEARS PRIOR TO THAT, AND HAS DRIVEN REFORM IN MULTIPLE AREAS.

INDIVIDUALLY, EACH OF THESE REFORMS MAY NOT SEEM LIKE A HUGE DEAL, BUT IF YOU ACCUMULATE THEM, THEY AMOUNT TO QUITE A LOT, AND MY VIEW IS THAT THIS REFORM WILL CONTINUE, AND GIVEN YOU HAVE A POLITICAL CALENDAR WHICH IS RELATIVELY CLEAR, THE HOPE IS THAT WHAT YOU WILL SEE IS BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR, THIS WILL CONTINUE, AND MY BET IS WE WILL END UP WITH LARGER REFORMS CUMULATIVELY THAN WHAT WE HAD SEEN IN 1991, SINCE THEN.

THAT IS SOMETHING INVESTORS ARE INTERESTED IN AND KEEPING A VERY CAREFUL EYE ON. THAT IS A HOPE THAT ALMOST NEVER GETS FULFILLED BECAUSE THE MOMENT THE DARK CLOUDS ARE SET OFF, EVERYONE IN GOVERNMENT WANTS TO SAY, OK, CRISIS OVER, WE CAN BREATHE, AND IN THE NEXT CRISIS, BUT I STILL WANT TO TALK ABOUT CAPITAL COMING BACK TO INDIA, IN THE SECONDARY MARKETS BUT ALSO IN THE PRIMARY MARKETS. WE HAVE A LONG PIPELINE OF IPO'S PILING UP WAITING FOR BETTER MARKET CONDITIONS.

JUST LAST YEAR, THEY ALL LOOKED LIKE THESE GREAT BUSINESS STORIES TO TELL, AND NOW THEY ALL SEEM A LITTLE OLD ECONOMY. SO I'M WONDERING IF THE MONEY WILL COME BACK. INVESTORS TEND TO BE AFFECTED BY TAILWINDS AND HEADWINDS, TRUE, BUT I THINK THEY ARE FAR MORE SOPHISTICATED THAN THAT. THAT'S NOT THE ONLY FACTOR THEY WILL LOOK AT. THEY WILL ALWAYS LOOK AT BOTTOM OF FUNDAMENTALS IN EVERY SITUATION. THESE ARE VERY THOUGHTFUL, RATIONAL INDIVIDUALS.

WHAT I HAVE FOUND IS IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT YOUR MACRO MARKET CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE. IF YOU HAVE GOOD COMPANIES WITH GOOD EXECUTION TRACK RECORDS, GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, THERE IS ALWAYS AN APPETITE FOR. THERE IS ALWAYS A PROCESS OF MARKET DISCOVERY AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE YEAR AHEAD, BUT MY VIEW IS THERE IS ALWAYS A MARKET. HASLINDA: BACK TO THE AI STORY, SOME PEOPLE ARGUE THAT THESE COMPANIES -- THESE SOFTWARE COMPANIES ARE REINVENTING THEMSELVES, ADOPTING AI, AND THEY COULD BE WORTH INVESTING IN.

HOW DO YOU SEE THESE SOFTWARE COMPANIES PLAYING OUT? THAT IS THE UNANSWERED QUESTION. THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS THAT AI IS GOING TO DRIVE LOTS OF PRODUCTIVITY GAINS. YOU WILL NEED FEWER PEOPLE THAN YOU NEEDED IN THE PAST. TO YOUR POINT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT -- FIRST OF ALL, WE ARE VERY EARLY INNINGS OF ENTERPRISES ADOPTING AI. THE NARRATIVE UNTIL NOW HAS ALL BEEN ABOUT ELLA LIM'S BURSTING INTO CONSCIOUSNESS, THE CHIPS, ALL OF THAT STUFF, BUT THE USE CASE IS WHEN WE ARE ONLY BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND.

IT'S POSSIBLE AND OUR ANALYSTS IN INDIA ARGUE THAT THE SCOPE OF WHAT THEY WILL BE DOING WILL BE MATERIALLY LARGER THAN IN THE PAST. TO YOUR POINT ABOUT IF THIS IS AN ATTRACTIVE POINT FOR INVESTORS AND TO THE POINT OF THE 50% EXTRA INVESTORS WHO CAME TO OUR CONFERENCE AND WERE SHARPENING THEIR PENCILS -- HASLINDA: SO DON'T FIGHT THEM OFF JUST YET? I THINK WE ARE FAR TOO PREMATURE TO DO THAT. HASLINDA: I WANT TO CONTINUE THIS AI CONVERSATION.

HOW ARE YOU LOOKING AT IT FOR BANK OF AMERICA? PEOPLE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT HOW IT IMPACTS HIRING, ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER LEVEL. IS THAT WHAT YOU SEE AS WELL? KNOW, CATEGORICALLY NOT. WE HAVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 GRADUATES WHO JOINED THE FIRM EVERY YEAR AND THIS YEAR WAS NO DIFFERENT. FRESH GRADUATES WHO JOINED THE ORGANIZATION, BUT LET ME TAKE A STEP BACK. THE FIRST THING TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT TECHNOLOGY IS NOTHING NEW FOR BANK OF AMERICA.

WE ARE AN ENTITY THAT IS PEOPLE AND TECHNOLOGY-DRIVEN. THAT HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE. IF YOU LOOK AT THE FIRST COUPLE OF DECADES OF THE CENTURY, THE WHOLE NARRATIVE IS ONE ABOUT DIGITIZATION AND ADOPTING NEW TOOLS. WE WERE VERY EARLY ADOPTERS OF WHAT PEOPLE WOULD BE THINKING TODAY OF LLM'S WHICH IS A TOOL CALLED ERRICO WHICH IS ON EACH OF OUR CUSTOMERS' MOBILE PHONES THAT HELP THEM ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR ACCOUNTS -- A TOOL CALLED ERICA.

WE HA

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。