美国担忧ASML芯片设备流入中国

YVONNE: 9:00 A.M. IN SHANGHAI, SHENZHEN AND HERE IN HONG KONG. YOU'RE WATCHING THE CHINA SHOW. AVRIL: OIL HOLDING LOSSES AS MORE TANKERS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TRACKING A SURGE ON WALL STREET, BLOOMBERG LEARNS THE U.S. SUSPECTS CHINA MAY HAVE GOTTEN ITS HANDS ON TOP CHIPMAKING MACHINERY IN VIOLATION OF EXPORT CONTROLS. AND NAVIGATING THE TECH GIANTS AI INVESTMENTS WHICH HAVE BLOATED ITS BALANCE SHEETS. INDONESIA'S MARKET OPEN IS IN FOCUS AS MSCI ISSUES A NEW WARNING ON TRANSPARENCY AHEAD OF NEXT WEEK'S VERDICT ON POTENTIAL DOWNGRADE TO A FRONT STATUS. YVONNE: IT DOES FEEL LIKE A HOLIDAY WITH THE HONG KONG MARKETS CLOSE. THERE STILL PLENTY TO UNPACK. WE'RE STILL TRYING TO SEE IF WE FULLY DIGESTED THE FED NEWS THIS WEEK AND OF COURSE AT 60 DAY CLOCK HAS STARTED WHEN IT COMES TO NEGOTIATIONS AND THE REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. AVRIL: IT'S GOING TO BE A COMPLEX SITUATION. WE HAD THE LIKES OF BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS WHO SEEM TO BE HIGHLIGHTING THE SENSE THAT IN TERMS OF WHAT IS BEEN GAINED, IRAN DOES LOOK LIKE IT HAS THE UPPER HAND. STILL, WE WILL LOOK AT HOW ALL THIS IS SHAPING MARKETS, GIVEN THIS DEAL, SHIPPING SEEMS TO BE RETURNING TO THE STRAIT AND WE'VE SEEN OIL ON THE BACK FOOT, HEADING FOR THOSE THE WEEKLY LOSSES, AGAINST THE BACKDROP WE'VE BEEN SEEING A LOT OF -- A LITTLE BIT OF RISK APPETITE RETURNING. ON TOP OF THAT, WITH GOLD ON THE WEEKLY DECLINE, IT'S ALSO AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLIGHTLY MORE HAWKISH FEDERAL RESERVE. STILL WE DID SEE OVERNIGHT TREASURIES MANAGING GAINS AND SHRUGGING OFF THOSE SIGNALS FROM THE U.S. CENTRAL BANK. WE ARE OF COURSE TRACKING BOND FUTURES, U.S. MARKETS ARE SHUT FOR JUNETEENTH, SO WE ARE SEEING MAYBE A SLIGHT UPTICK ON THE TWO-YEAR BOND FUTURES, WHEN TRADING RESUMES, IT WAS BONDS THAT MANAGED TO GAIN IN THE U.S. AND S&P 500 FUTURES ARE POINTING TO A SLIGHT REVERSAL, BUT NO DOUBT IT WAS THE CHIPMAKERS THAT POWERED THE WAY. WE HAD INTEL WITH BIG GAINS AFTER TRUMP TALKED ABOUT HOW WILL BE SUPPLYING AND DESIGNING CHIPS TO APPLE. THAT IS ON PENDING CASH UNDERPINNING SOME OF THE GAINS IN ASIA AS WELL. WE ARE AT 9300 NOW, IT'S THE MEMORY MAKERS THAT ARE POWERING THINGS THROUGH AND IS CONTINUE TO OUTPACE GAINS ON SOME OF THE OTHER ASIA PLAYS INCLUDING THE NIKKEI AS WELL. IF ALL OF THIS IS SAPPING SOME OF THIS DEMAND, LOOK AT HOW THE GOLD IN CHINA FARED OVER -- OVERNIGHT. IT'S BEEN A WEEK IT'S BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY. ON WATCH FOR BEAR MARKETS AND AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF HOW THE MAINLAND MARKETS ARE SHUT TODAY. A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS WE ARE WATCHING AS WELL, TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THE DOLLAR IS FARING. HOLDING STEADY IN THE ASIA SESSION BUT IT DID CLOCK GAINS OVERNIGHT. WE ARE SEEING DOLLAR-YEN MOVING A LITTLE OFF THOSE SESSION HIGHS. WE DID GET COMMENTS FROM THE FINANCE CHEAP REITERATING BOLD ACTION AGAINST SPECULATIVE FX MOVES. TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY WON'T RELY ON DEBT TO FIND SOME OF THE OTHER THINGS INCLUDING THE REDUCTION IN FOOD SALES TAXES. SENATORS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE ARE URGING SCOTT BESSENT TO TAKING THIS UP WITH CHINA, THE SO-CALLED UNDERVALUED RENMINBI. WE ARE SEEING OFFSHORE DOLLAR CHINA TOWARD 6.77. YVONNE: I LOVE THAT THE DOLLAR YEN IS AT 1.61 LEVELS AND THEY'RE CALLING IT STRENGTH GIVEN THE WEEK IT'S HAD WHEN IT COMES TO KEVIN WARSH AND HOW IN SOME WAYS IT HAS BROUGHT THIS NEW REGIME WHEN IT COMES TO FX AND BOND MARKETS. CERTAINLY THERE'S A LOT TO TALK ABOUT AND UNPACK. CONCERNS REMAIN ABOUT WHETHER TEHRAN MIGHT EVENTUALLY CHARGE FEES ON VESSELS, AND IS SOMETHING VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE SKIRTED QUESTIONS ABOUT EARLIER. TAKE A LISTEN. >> IT'S NOT ABOUT TOLLING. IT'S ABOUT ENSURING THAT THE STRAITS ARE NEVER USED AS A CHOKEPOINT FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY EVER AGAIN. IS FRANKLY NOT WHAT THE IRANIANS WANT OR WHAT THE G 60 WANTS EITHER. WORKING WITH OUR ALLIES IN THE REGION, WE WANT TO ENSURE THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE FINAL DEAL AND IF IT'S NOT, THERE WILL NOT BE A FINAL DEAL. YVONNE: LET'S BRING IN OUR SENIOR EDITOR FROM SAN FRANCISCO. IT WAS AN INTERESTING PRESSER FROM JD VANCE. WHAT REALITY IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE IN THIS WATERWAY ONCE IT DOES REOPEN. DEREK: THINK THAT'S ONE OF THE KEY QUESTIONS, IF YOU GO BACK TO THE PREWAR BASELINE, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT INTERNATIONAL WATERS WHERE SHIPS SAILED THROUGH RELATIVELY FREELY. YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST ENERGY AND COMMERCIAL WATERWAYS. THIS IS NOT A SMALL DEAL, WE HAVE ALL SEEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS WHAT THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES HAVE BEEN FOR THIS MOSTLY CLOSURE THAT WE'VE HAD GOING ON. ONE OF THE DIFFICULTIES WITH THIS IS THAT IN A PLAN TO BRING THIS BACK, IRAN HAS REALLY BEEN KEEN ON THE IDEA THAT IT IS GOING TO TAKE A MANAGERIAL ROLE IN SOME CAPACITY, AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO SEEK REVENUES TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING SHUT OFF IN THE FUTURE. AND THAT COULD LOOK LIKE A LOT OF DIFFERENT THINGS. YOU COULD CALL THAT A TOLL, A FEE-FOR-SERVICE, A TAX, YOU COULD CALL IT WHATEVER YOU WANT TO, BUT IT WOULD BE A MEANINGFUL CHANGE. AND IT WOULD BE ONE THAT WOULD HAVE A DISRUPTIVE AND INFLATIONARY RESULT FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY. THE U.S. IS VERY KEEN TO AVOID HAVING THAT, BUT AT THE SAME POINT, WE ARE SEEING THROUGHOUT THE U.S., THE WHITE HOUSE PARTICULARLY DONALD TRUMP TRY AND DEFEND THIS DEAL AS A LOT OF THEIR ALLIES IN THE U.S. AND ISRAEL HAVE STARTED TO SUGGEST THAT IRAN GOT THE UPPER HAND IN THE FIRST AM RANDOM. AVRIL: THESE 60 DAYS ARE GOING TO BE A PERIOD OF COMPLEX NEGOTIATIONS. WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING SPECIFICALLY THAT COULD POTENTIALLY DERAIL THE STEADY STATE THAT WE SEEM TO BE IN NOW?

DEREK: I THINK IT'S A GREAT QUESTION. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I THINK IS JUST CHALLENGING TO THINK ABOUT IS THE IDEA OF GETTING TO A DEAL IN THIS TIMEFRAME. YOU RECALL THE NUCLEAR DEAL UNDER THEN PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA TOOK ABOUT TWO YEARS TO GET TO AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A TWO MONTH PERIOD. SO THERE IS A MAJOR TIME COMPRESSION HERE. THERE IS ANY NUMBER OF DETAILS THAT HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT ON THE TECHNICAL SIDE. THIS IS REALLY LIKE IN THE WEEDS KIND OF STUFF, BUT IT ALL REALLY MATTERS. THIS HAS BEEN AN ADMINISTRATION THAT HAS PREFER TO DEAL WITH THE TOP LINES. WHAT HAPPENS AT THIS POINT?

WHAT IS THE PRESSURE POINT? THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT ANYONE WANTS TO GO BACK TO BOMBS AND MISSILES AND ALL OF THAT SORT OF THING, BUT THIS IS A PART OF THE WORLD WHERE PEACE HAS BEEN FRAGILE, WHERE IRAN AND ISRAEL HAVE BEEN AT ODDS, BOTH DIRECTLY AS WELL AS IN PROXY FIGHTS FOR A VERY LONG TIME. ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES ARE NOT PRESENTLY SEEMING LIKE THEY ARE FULLY ON THE SAME PAGE. DONALD TRUMP IS FEELING A LOT OF PRESSURES. HE WAS TALKING YESTERDAY AND THEN AGAIN TODAY ABOUT THE IDEA OF THE RELATIVE ECONOMIC CALAMITIES THAT COULD HAVE BEFALLEN HAD THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ NOT STARTED TO REOPEN UP AND THAT WAS A PARTICULAR PRESSURE POINT. HE IS ALSO FACING CANDIDLY POLITICAL PRESSURE POINTS GOING UP TO THE NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTION. SO THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS AT PLAY HERE AND ONE OF THE CONCERNS SOME OF THE MORE HAWKISH REPUBLICAN AND ISRAELI FRIENDS OF THE PRESIDENT HAVE HAD IS THAT THEY SEE A LOT OF THESE PRESSURES WORKING AGAINST HIM MORE THAN WORKING AGAINST IRAN RIGHT NOW. YVONNE: THANK YOU, DEREK, TALKING ABOUT WHAT TO LOOK OUT IN THE NEXT 60 DAYS OR SO. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE IMPACT THIS COULD HAVE ON MARKETS. TALKING ABOUT THE COOL DOWN IT COMES TO OIL PRICES WHERE WE ARE NOW SUB 80 WHEN IT COMES TO BRENT. JOINING US FROM SYDNEY IS TONY SYCAMORE WITH IG ELSE TRAIL. IT SEEMS LIKE A MARKETS HAVE IN SOME WAY PRICED IN THE FACT THAT THIS WAR IS OVER AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPENING OFFICIALLY TODAY. WHEN WHAT ASSUMPTIONS ARE YOU MAKING ABOUT THE OIL PRICE AND HOW DOES THAT TRANSLATE TO THE REST OF YOUR MARKET OUTLOOK?

>> IT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION. THE RATE PRICING THIS WEEK HAS BEEN DRASTIC AND PART OF THAT CAME ABOUT BECAUSE OF THE RESUMPTION OF IRANIAN OIL ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY. THAT HAS TAKEN CRUDE OIL TO THE LOW 70'S, IT'S HAD A MINOR BOUNCE AND I THINK WHAT COMES NEXT IS THE EXECUTION RISKS WHIC