美联储新主席维持利率不变，2026年加息概率升至49%

I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous.

Just in, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first FOMC meeting since becoming new Fed Chair, has just announced that interest rates will remain unchanged.

This committee will deliver price stability.

Welcome back, everybody, to Altcoin Daily. We are the largest crypto community in the world. Subscribe to Altcoin Daily. Stay updated on crypto every day. Bitcoin showing a lot of volatility today. Let's talk about what comes next with Kevin Warsh and the Fed. Guys, smash the like button if you're getting value in today's video. It's a small thing you can do, but it truly does help us grow. I appreciate it. To leave interest rates unchanged today was expected, and and the Fed's vote on this was unanimous.

However, despite that, the Fed did surprise the market and came across rather hawkish. The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in 2026 surge to 49% because although today's decision to leave rates unchanged was unanimous among the Fed committee members, nine out of the 18 officials indicated it's a possibility rate hikes happen in 2026. Remember, there are only four FOMC meetings left in 2026: in July, in September, in October, in December.

And then combine this with this supposed peace deal, oil prices actually dumping to 76 today. They could sign the deal as early as today, but really we are expecting them to sign this deal on Friday. The US has just released a 14-point agreement with Iran what they expect to see happening. In this report, the US certainly has made some concessions like unfreezing Iran's assets, like lifting the naval blockade, among other things.

Iran, of course, making some concessions as well. Ensure the Strait of Hormuz is returned to pre-war traffic levels within 30 days. Reiterate that it will never produce nuclear weapons going forward. And like I said, although oil prices are acting like this war is truly winding down, Trump shaking things up by the second, saying the deal's not final till it's final.

No, it's not final. It's a memorandum of understanding, and if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head. If I don't like it, if they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.

So, with only four FOMC meetings left, the market acting like a rate hike is coming, but oil acting like the Strait of Hormuz will be open, meaning inflation will come down, meaning that before 2026 is over, well, right now, the market is projecting a hawkish stance, they might actually switch to dovish, meaning that everybody might be wrong on what actually comes next in 2026. Warsh is keeping the bears from hiking, letting Iran oil spike subside, so that he can slam rates lower later.

He clearly doesn't want to hike. He even dropped forward guidance to stop the other Fed's governors from creating fud, indicating here that even as soon as their next meeting, everything is still on the table.

I've said for years inflation's is a choice. You bet it is. But I can't give any forward guidance about what we're going to do next. The good news is we'll be meeting in 6 weeks.

He even went on to admit the macro conditions of today are restrictive. The forward expectations will move aggressively once oil comes down, because that means inflation comes down. Warsh is not Bitcoin's big enemy, but Michael Saylor is. June gloom for Michael Saylor's strategies product Strike, right now offering 11.5% dividends. Strike is supposed to maintain a price of around $100 at all times. It has fallen short before, popped back up.

Right now it is falling short, and the question is will it pop back up? People are saying that Michael Saylor will fail and bring Bitcoin down with it. Do not be fooled by bears. Anthony Scaramucci just went on CNBC to set the record straight on Bitcoin, saying I still like it, I still own a lot of it. I think Bitcoin starts to rally in Q4 of this year and early into 2027. And when asked directly about Michael Saylor, he says he's definitely not in trouble.

I like it, I like him. I think he's going to be right. In my 38 years as an investor, when you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin market, a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price.

I still like it. I own a lot of it. I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into early 2027. Bitcoin has gone through in my lifetime as an investor with Bitcoin, four-year cycles. And so what's going on right now is very consistent with the four-year cycle and just hitting more or less a few months after the having cycle. So we'll have another having, guy, roughly in April of 2028. But prior to that, about 9 months prior to that, you'll start to see the recovery in Bitcoin.

So I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into early 2027. And this has been a shallow cycle for Bitcoin. Bitcoin usually goes down between 60 and 70% from its high. It's down roughly 50. There's a lot of traditionalists who say, "Wow, there's more to go here on Bitcoin." But, I think we've been buffered by the institutional buying at the ETF level and the broader retail buying of Bitcoin at the ETF level.

So, is Michael in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble. He has a fortress balance sheet. You have to really understand the mechanisms of the balance sheet to understand that Bitcoin can go a lot lower and he's virtually not in trouble. He also bought back some of these converts recently, which takes that piece of it off the table. Uh that was something he was probably a little bit worried about. He's got a very deep capital pool that he can access.

And he's still trading, you know, you can go to the strategy app and you look at his MNAV in terms of what the price of the stock is relative to the value of his Bitcoin. He's still trading at a 1.2, 1.3 NAV, which gives him the necessary arbitrage for people to get comfortable with that trade. So, I like it. I like him. Uh I think he's going to be right. Uh and we're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all-time low for Bitcoin.

The apathy is at is there. No one cares about it anymore. If you look at Google searches, they're way, way down. Uh you and I have been doing this a long time, guys. It's my 38th year as an investor. When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin market. Remember, Bitcoin is only the size now of Micron Technology. Just look at the overall market capitalization of Bitcoin. And a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price.

That happened this week, 61 to 65. It got to 67, it backed off. So, I still like it. I own a lot of it. So, I am talking my book. I just want to make sure I'm very clear with everybody on that. Um but, I think it's right there where you would expect it to be in the four-year cycle.

In other news, just in, Senator Bill Hagerty says that he hopes to see the Clarity Act signed into law, quote, "before the end of July. We need to get this done. It's important to get this done. It's critical to maintain America's innovation edge." Before the end of July.

Where the Clarity Act is taking us, it's creating the type of certainty that's necessary to bring the entire digital asset framework into full-blown opportunity here in America. If you look back at the GENESIS Act that I authored, that brought America into the digital payments arena. We now are in a position where America will continue to lead as the reserve currency of the world because we now have a reserve digital dollar that's backed dollar-for-dollar by short-term US Treasury securities.

As we move more broadly into the arena, digital assets have a much more, you know, varied use. We've dealt with it, I think, to a large extent, and I'm with Kevin Cramer, we need to get this done. It's important to get it done. It's critical to maintain America's innovation edge. From a process standpoint,

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