SpaceX IPO估值1.8万亿，散户投资者跃跃欲试

It's outrageous. It's stupid. It's unreasonable, to be frankly honest with you. The valuation is really, really aggressive, in my opinion. That was Marvin Jung, a 51 year old retail investor and regional director of operations in veterinary care, talking about space. The company is expected to go public at a valuation of nearly $1.8 trillion, making it one of the world's most valuable companies before most investors have ever had a chance to buy a single share.

But this estimate is being thrown into question, Morningstar analysts wrote. They "think the company has been significantly overvalued, and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO." Despite this, Marvin still wants in. I use Robinhood and I requested about a thousand shares. Martin's not alone. Of the five retail investors we spoke with, SpaceX's valuation is not enough to stay away.

Some are treating it as a long term bet, while others think of it as more of a short term trade on hype, demand and scarcity. Never bet against Elon. For me, this is a long term investment that I'm hoping to hold, not for a week or a month or even a year, but, you know, the next ten plus years. I'm still on the fence. I really feel there's pros and cons to the SpaceX IPO. We all have FOMO. You don't want to miss out.

I am agnostic, I don't really care if the stock goes up or down because I'm a trader. I will make money on volatility. Here's why these retail investors want a piece of SpaceX. Even at one of the richest IPO valuations in market history. This IPO is unique because SpaceX wants retail investors to receive roughly 20 to 30% of shares, which is much higher than the norm. The company expects each share to cost $135 at IPO.

This valuation has been particularly difficult for institutional investors to judge because SpaceX cannot be valued like a normal IPO. Investors are trying to price a business that includes satellite internet launch services, defense contracts and now a growing bet on AI infrastructure. Remember, SpaceX is not one business. SpaceX is three businesses: it's a communications business. It's a launch business and ultimately it's an AI infrastructure business.

The one business, the communication business, which is highly profitable, funds the other two parts of the business. On the roadshow, we've seen something unprecedented. SpaceX announced deals with Anthropic and Google that will add $26 billion in revenue annually. With those partnerships, the company has more than doubled its revenue in the middle of the road show. The bull case is that the numbers are changing so quickly that a traditional valuation model may not fully capture what investors think SpaceX could become.

The way Elon builds companies cannot be put into a traditional valuation framework, so speed is his ultimate weapon. But even some investors who want in admit the current valuation depends on a lot going right. There's no way you can multiply your way into like $1.7 trillion market cap anyways. I think it hinges so much on future execution. And if you're willing to underwrite success, it'll be more than $1.7 trillion.

Ross Cameron, a veteran day trader who runs the YouTube channel Warrior Trading, requested 2,500 shares through Charles Schwab. He says on paper, the valuation is hard to defend. The SpaceX IPO would be overvalued if it didn't include Elon Musk because it includes Elon Musk. It's hard to say yes. Are they valuing it at a historic price to sales ratio? They are. It doesn't really make sense on paper, but this is the right market environment for them to be IPO ING and they're getting that price.

If you look at an absolute revenue multiple I think valuation is lofty. But if you think about it as a sum of the parts of three different companies, and you look at the kind of monopolistic market positioning it has in at least two of those three business segments, I think you could argue there's a premium to be paid. So the valuation debate goes beyond whether SpaceX is expensive. Most of the investors that we spoke with agree that it is.

The real debate is whether CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX's growth and demand for the IPO can justify paying that price now. And among retail investors, that answer depends on what kind of buyer they are. The five investors CNBC spoke with requested access to SpaceX shares on various trading platforms such as Robinhood and Charles Schwab. They are not guaranteed to get the shares they requested, and they will not find out if they received any until the night before the IPO.

Let's start with the traders who are thinking more short term. For them, it's a matter of determining what demand, scarcity and hype could do in the first few trading days. I think this has got a pretty good potential to pop strong first day. I'm going to guess at least 30% minimum. My initial strategy is I will be getting in on IPO day, but I do expect to probably exit within 4 to 5 days. This is just a simple pop. People love IPOs.

I think a trader would have to be out of their mind to consider shorting SpaceX on day one, day two, anytime in the first week prior to the inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. That would be insane. With the SpaceX IPO, I typically do trade hype IPOs because hyped up IPOs on day one. That's the first opportunity for a retail trader to get a piece of it. And there's always so much FOMO and excitement that is sitting here waiting for the price to begin, waiting for it to start trading.

Retail demand could help drive the trade, but could also change the way the trade works. If many retail investors already get shares before the stock opens, Ross says there may be less buying pressure on day one. Longer term, he's watching another risk: supply. They did not get approval to be part of the S&P 500. So my concern is that over the next six months, while we may see a rally in the first couple of weeks, especially on day 15 with the Nasdaq 100, rebalancing, buying into SpaceX, once we get to the first lock up period expiring, you're going to have some insiders who have been in this for a long time, who probably have a mandate from some of the investors that they're representing to take some profit off the table.

That's why some investors are interested but still limiting their allocation. Mikey Moran is a 49 year old retail investor and entrepreneur. He says he will probably buy shares if he gets an allocation, but he's not treating it like a sure thing. He doesn't plan to invest more than $10,000. I'm willing to take a little bit of a risk, but not that much of a risk. Will I buy the allotment that my broker, like a Robinhood or E-Trade, allows?

I probably will, because it's historical, but I'm still on the fence of whether it's a good trade. There's much safer bets as far as established companies that I even do business with, and looking at the valuation and the uncertainty of what could happen, it's a little concerning. So the short-term investors are not necessarily saying space is cheap, but they suspect demand could be strong enough to create a trade. But for other investors, the high valuation is actually a reason to keep the position small and think long term.

Elaine Markham, a 30 year old retail investor who creates educational content for traders, requested two shares through Robinhood. She says she's aware of the risks but wants exposure in case space becomes the kind of company that investors regret missing out on. I requested two shares through Robinhood. That would be my initial position sizing at the IPO price, but I'm hoping to potentially build out that position over time.

I definitely think the current valuation is aggressive, and I think that's going to lead into, you know, volatility post IPO that's for sure. I do have the smaller bucket for high-risk, high-potential return investments. And so for me SpaceX fits into that bucket. Andrew Chen, a recent Cornell graduate, says he's looking beyond SpaceX's current businesses and toward what

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