Saylor卖币引发比特币暴跌？市场信心博弈

Welcome to the Bankless weekly roll-up. It's the first week of June and we've got Haseeb on the show subbing in for Ryan this week. Haseeb, how you doing?

I'm okay. Just kind of a rough day, but you know, hanging in there.

Rough day cuz of the markets?

Rough day cuz of the markets. I'm just seeing all the seeing all the bleeding. I mean, obviously, you know, I think it's okay. I think it's going to be okay, but it it it sucks to see so many people kind of down and and hurting.

Yes. Is this different than any other times in the past? I think what you're saying is like, this happens. We this is what we go through in crypto. This is part of the course.

look, if you're if you're in crypto, if you've been in this industry for a long time, you know, being down 4% in a day is not catastrophic. Yeah. I think it I think we were we were feeling a bit of a sentiment reversal. It's like, oh, okay, we're pulling out of this. It seems like we're going to shake it off. And it's like, no, you're not you're not out of it yet. So, I think people people are feeling that pain.

That's right. We're going to talk about a handful of things on the podcast today. Is Michael Saylor going to kill Bitcoin? Bitcoin is trading at its 200-week moving average while Stretch is trading off of its peg. Saylor is in the middle of a confidence game with a market. We'll see who wins. Tom Lee and Bitmain have announced that they're going to issue an equity yield instrument right in the middle of Stretch being distressed.

We're going to talk about whether that's a good idea or not. Despite the weakness in the majors of crypto, some tokens are still very green on the week. That to me is new. So, what to make of that? And also, the CFTC greenlights the first compliant perps markets inside the United States. Let's start with Michael Saylor. Saylor and strategy sold 32 Bitcoin for $2.5 million. A very small sale. Probably just probing the market, seeing how the market digests it.

Coincidentally or not, this is a question that I have for Haseeb as whether this was a coincidence. Coincidentally or not, Bitcoin fell by like 17% after the announcement of that sale from $72,000 down to $62,000. It's back up about $63.6,000. Hasib, coincidence? This is Bitcoin is kind of just doing the cycle thing, but the timing is special. What do you think?

Yeah, I mean, clearly not a coincidence since this was announced. I think this was announced on What was it? Tuesday? That the sale was announced, but the the sale happened last week.

Yes.

Um and obviously this this amount of sale is so small, right? That it's it's obviously it wasn't the sale itself that was absorbed by markets causing this downturn.

It was the symbolism.

It's the signaling. It's the signaling. And the signal clearly has accelerated this, but only since Tuesday, right? And and market was coming down before Tuesday. So, I think it's it's quickened the pace of the sentiment turning sour, but um you know, over it doesn't explain the full drawdown that we've seen since uh you know, Bitcoin kind of recovering to near 80K.

Right. Yeah, I I'm I'm of two minds. There is no such thing as coincidences, but also I think if you just ignored the Saylor thing and you just looked at the price chart over cycles, this would look normal. This would look relatively normal. But at the end You you disagree?

I Well, I look, I'm not a I'm not a TA kind of guy, so I don't know what's a normal or not normal price chart. I'm like I I I think it was true that there was a sentiment reversal. People felt like the weekend had been shaken out. Um a lot of retail had already exited the market. And so, it's like, "Okay, now we've we've you know, we've we've uh taken our lumps, and now it's time to reconsolidate and kind of reestablish, okay, how do we feel about the fair value of Bitcoin?"

Um I think it's pretty clear this market is very flows driven right now and very sentiment driven. And sentiment I I think you know, Saylor was probably testing the market as you mentioned, and I think he got the answer he was not looking for, which is that absolutely not. You are not allowed to sell. Like you are a big part of the story of why Bitcoin gets to keep going up. And so, I I think Saylor likely has internalized this lesson of never press that button ever again for as long as he lives.

Really? You think that he is not he's his hands are are tied and he can't sell?

You You think he this response has told him, "Okay, yeah, it's fine. Go sell some more."

Okay, so get Here's what Here is a possible path that I kind of think was was my base case. So, we have to look at stretch. Uh stretch is trading at $95, $95.3. That's about 5% off of its peg. The market cap of stretch is uh it's about $500 million off of the market cap. Uh it's it should be a little over 10 billion. It's trading over at 9.9 billion. We're we're $561 million below par. I think Saylor just needs to take it on the chin, and he needs to sell enough Bitcoin to fund the stretch dividends for 3 years. 3-plus years to establish confidence in the market.

That is a I I can't remember how much that is. That is a sale in the the five or six or seven hundreds of millions. And so, he needs to sell 500, 600 million dollars of

think it gets to multiple years. I believe the stretch dividends are like over a billion a year. And he has 700 million on hand if I'm not mistaken.

He needs to puke up enough Bitcoin to establish confidence in stretch and the stretch dividends and make stretch holders believe in stretch. So, that stretch returns to trading at $100. To me, stretch is a canary and it's telling us that there is a lack of confidence. And this is this is a positive feedback loop in the bad way, in the negative direction, because people like me are looking at stretch being 5% off. I'm like, "Oh, Saylor's going to need to sell Bitcoin in order to close that gap.

Then I'm going to sell my Bitcoin because I know Saylor's coming in like a like a train behind me. So, I'm going to just going to get out of the way and I'm going to sell my Bitcoin. And so, it's it's creating a downward downwards feedback downward spiral. And I think Saylor just needs to take it on the chin, make a large single sell of Bitcoin, and that's it. And then he just clears it. But I don't know if he can just do nothing here.

So, I I would take the opposite view. I think what he's learned is that look, I sold nothing. I sold 25 Bitcoin, and this is the reaction of the market, right? He lost so much more money in his NAV because of how much Bitcoin went down from that sale relative to the amount of cash he would need to raise to pay dividend holders, which tells you the way that you raise this money is not by selling. That breaks the whole system.

You you have lost more than you would have because conceivably have gained. So, now I I think the lesson that the market is telling him is, no no no no no no no no, you got to die with the ship. You are you not get to be a prudent financial manager. You are Mr. Bitcoin. Mr. Bitcoin doesn't get to sell. So, if you want to be Mr. Bitcoin, like either one, you got to throw the stretch holders under the bus and say, "Okay, you guys are going to have to sit on your dividends for a while.

I'm not paying any dividends." And, you know, stretch they they have the ability to skip paying out dividends. The the dividends accrue over time. They will eventually get paid. But you can miss a dividend and and you know, they have the discretion to do that. Um the second option, of course, is dilute the stock, right? So, just go do some ATMs, sell some more stock, dilute the common shareholders so that you can pay the dividend, right?

Now, in each of those cases, somebody gets screwed. Either the common shareholders get screwed or the the preferred shareholders get screwed. But one way or another, one of them has to lose because the third category of Bitcoin gets screwed does not w

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