比特币200周均线支撑位：历史会重演吗？

And we're back for another Bankless Friday weekly rollup. It's the second week of June. Ryan is back from vacation. Ryan, uh, we were fighting. I guess we made up.

Wait, fighting on Twitter? Are you talking about?

Yeah, that was not a fight. Come on.

I was on vacation and I just felt compelled. I just had to I just had to tweet at you, David. So, actually, it wasn't about you at first. It was kind of about you.

It was about my take. Yeah. your takes.

I was like I read that tweet and I was like okay dude

well we're going to discuss that right I saw a uh a meme babe look the bankless guys are fighting what's happening so we got to resolve this and actually see where the daylight is between us on the question of the old asset that um you formerly loved and I still do love ETH the asset

do I not love ETH I love ETH as an idea uh but we'll get into that uh the topics of the week uh the crypto crash uh the 3rd 25% draw down in crypto since November, the deepest yet. Uh, Bitcoin has roundted the entire Trump presidency. Ryan, we are back towards Joseph Biden Bitcoin prices.

Oh my god. Obama. Yeah. And you never thought of that. Thanks, Obama.

Uh, $4.4 billion flowed out of the ETFs in third over 13 days. And then Michael Sailor sold Bitcoin. He did the thing that he said you should never do.

What? And then he bought more. So, why did he do that? Why did he do that? I don't know. Uh, it's also IPO season. The SpaceX IPO is tomorrow. Uh, is coming up tomorrow, which will be today for the for you listeners if you're listening to this on Friday. Fortunately, in the crypto side of the world, we have pre-markets. We have preipo markets, which is something new out of crypto. And so, we can take a look at what the valuations are saying.

It's too high. It's too high, I think. But,

you think the IPOs are too high?

God, they're so high. They're in the trillions.

Well, they are too high, but like they could go higher.

Too high to buy. I mean they could go higher but they could also go lower. This is the the kind of analysis that people show up for on a weekly basis.

Also go lower. That is right.

Why don't you take us to charts?

Yes. It was it was gross on Friday. I looked a couple times at prices and it looked disgusting.

Before I start sharing my screen, Ryan, we got to talk about OKX. Our friends and sponsors over at OKX. uh the Intercontinental Exchange, which is the parent company of the NYSE, they backed OKX at a $25 billion valuation with a plan to launch New York Stock Exchange stocks and derivatives later this year on the OKX platform. Uh Trady and DeFi in the same app, all in one place, finally trusted by over 120 million users globally.

OKX is bringing products to the US market that Wall Street has been talking about for years, but OKX is delivering them. This is the new money app by OKX. Not just a vision, a road map with institutional backing to execute it. If you are not on OKX yet, go and get a 6% match on RLUSD. That's Ripple stablecoin through the bankless link. Not available in New York and Texas, so I won't be able to get it. Uh but you can, Ryan.

Uh but that's not investment advice. Okay, let's go right into the charts.

So the Iran war was technically bullish for Bitcoin. Uh because it was up, Bitcoin was up about 30% over the course of the war. I think we invaded. When did we invade Iran? Like something like March 1st or something.

No real reason why though. I thought like maybe stocks were up and it just dragged up.

I think it is a complete anomaly. It was just because Bitcoin had fallen from its highs. If we're looking at the charts from its highs down to the LeBron word negative 50%. And so it recovered a little bit, but then we fell from the uh from the peak about another 25%. Bitcoin is right on the 200week moving average. It wicked below it. Yes, it tagged Bitcoin tagged $59,000 which is firmly below it. It has since recovered to above it.

First time below the 200 week in this bare cycle since November, right?

That's right. Well, also if we go back, we're going to zoom out on the charts here, Ryan, because I since you have uh uh taken a vacation last week, I am now a pro charter.

Yeah, I see that that blue line. That's got to be the 200 week.

Yeah. Okay. So the only time we spent below the 200 week moving average in Bitcoin's history is briefly during the COVID crash for like maybe 5 to 7 days back in 2020.

And then the meaningful time it spent below the 200WE moving average was after the three errors capital FTX drama like the worst bare market worst like cataclysms in crypto. Yeah. Months months below. So, it spent um uh 280 days below, popped back up, went back down below, but then uh as Black Rockck issued or announced the filing for the Bitcoin ETF, that's when we

Yeah, we have never been below the bitcoin the 200 uh week moving average before that. So I think this is kind of the question that like market people who are buying Bitcoin or not buying Bitcoin right now are asking is will we do the historically normative thing of bounce off of the 200E moving average or are we going to be due for one more 25% drop?

When you say historically normative we see both examples. Sometimes we bounce but in 2022 as you just said we stayed below for a while. We camped there

only only once. Granted, we camped there for a while, but that it was only one time. And again, it was after FTX, three hours Capital, the worst contagion event in crypto's history,

actual forelling capitulation,

plus the highest interest rates in all of Bitcoin's history as well. And like they jacked up interest rates quickly.

Mhm.

Now, you could say interest rates are actually still somewhat high. And so, you know, maybe in a higher interest rate environment, Bitcoin is more likely to go below the 200E moving average. But there was just so many events lined up in 2022 through 2023 that pushed Bitcoin below. And I don't really see those same events this this cycle.

Yeah. I mean, there's a comment Michael Nato made which is like we haven't paid for our sins yet. So maybe there's still some sins. We had a lot of sins in 2021. I don't know if we have as many sins now.

I think if we saw some big sinning, like if there was some big sinning, we would have seen it already.

It remember that the the spooky stuff in October, never found the dead bodies. Yeah. 1010.

Yeah. Like who knows what that was. We still don't know. Maybe there's still some sin that's just hidden from us.

It needs to be washed clean by this bare market.

I mean, we didn't No one expected Hero Capital go to go under because Suzu and Kyle Davies projected so much confidence.

But but who would be the sinners this cycle? Like Michael Sailor

clearly could be the sinner. I mean there there was a lot Trump memecoin shenanigans. I guess you pay for that.

Trump is in Bitcoin leverage. You know Sam Bank was selling paper bitcoins. Trump is not doing

the person we know with billions of of Bitcoin and kind of he doesn't like to call it

an aggressive amount of Bitcoin this week.

Well, so maybe it's Michael Sailor that's going to be coughing up blood by the end of this. I I can't see how it dips and sustains below the 200 week if if AI stocks continue to do okay. But if they capitulate, that could just be full risk off. Oh my god,

you know, it's over. We're effed. Get out of this market and then I could see it sustain. So I guess the question is what do you think?

You know, are are do you think that now is the time sort of to buy or like if are if you're a betting man, are you waiting for one last capitulation down into the 50s or even lower? My cognitive brain tells me that I can't find a big forced seller in this market right now. And I don't I think sailor is generally sound. My I'm looking at this chart and I'm like, dude, it's totally going lower.

I think it's going lower.

It's totally

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