美股上涨，比特币为何下跌？

Bankless Nation, it's time for another weekly rollup. It is the third week of June and once again, Ryan Sean Adams is on vacation. Welld deserved. And we got Tom Schmidt. Usually, we tap in his SE, but we have tapped in his like so many times. So, we're bringing we're bringing my BFF back. Uh Tom Tom, welcome back.

I'm glad I'm the BFF, not his. I've seen him on on Bake List too many times. So, thanks for having me.

Yeah. Yeah. Really really appreciate you. Uh Tom, um you're in New York. Why aren't you at the Knicks parade?

Uh I, you know, I'm gainfully employed, so I felt like it's very difficult to do both that and be at the Knicks parade. But it looked insane. I I was like that Fton Street just completely jammed full of people. So I'm also I'm also happy to to just observe it digitally, you know?

Yeah. I I wake up and do the thing that you shouldn't do, which is I immediately open up my phone and I pulled up an Instagram and looked at stories and there were all of my friends like I'm 2 hours ago already in Manhattan at like 6:30 in the morning like Jesus, what are you guys doing?

I I don't get it. Uh I'm also, you know, I'm one of those those uh you know bandwagon Nicks fans. So I can't I can't really cop to being a Knicks fan, you know. I'm just like I'm here.

Yeah, I am. I'm I'm glad it's happening. The energy in the city is great. I get to ride it. We got some news to talk about. Equities are up on the week, but crypto is down. Strategies stretch is trading 15% off par while there's a lot of grave dancing going on on Twitter. Uh we have the new FOMC meeting with the new brand new shiny new Fed chair Kevin Wsh. He said while he was getting the job, while he was going through the job interview process that he's going to cut and then once he got the job, uh turns out when he just was saying what Trump wanted him to say, now he's got the job, he doesn't have to say that anymore.

So now he's saying something else. Uh there was the SpaceX IPO on Friday and now it's the seventh largest company in the world. And I got a question, why is JTO, the uh block building software on Salana up 70% in 30 days. And then also Coinbase launched 21 new products all with their system update event. We're going to go through all of this and more. But first before we get into today's episode, Tom, I got to talk to our friends and sponsors over at OKX. uh the Intercontinental Exchange, which is the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

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Not an OKX user yet? If you are not, you can get $500 in Bitcoin through the link in the show notes unless you are living in New York or Texas. Sorry about that. Uh, all you got to do go to OKX, click that link, verify your identity, deposit $100, you get some money, deposit more money, get some more money, trade more money, get more money, all up to $500. There's a link in the show notes to get started. Let's just go back to to equities.

Equities looking good on the week. Still rallying after the Iran war. Uh peace deal got minted. Uh Bitcoin and crypto followed them shortly. Uh but not anymore. Uh not yesterday and definitely not today. Uh Bitcoin is now trading back right at the 200E moving average of $62,600. I think uh maybe this is just me, but I think people's eyes are all on Michael Sailor's Stretch product uh which was starting to recover after it dipped down to $91 uh last week, June 5th.

Uh and it recovered up to like 96 97, but it caught all the way down to $82 Tom this morning. is trading back up to $87. Almost so far almost 20% off of its peg of $100, making people very bearish about the confidence of strategy. I don't know if you pay attention to stretch. I pay attention to stretch quite a lot. Uh what do you think about all this?

Yeah, I think um this is really the first time I think we have strong evidence that sailor and strategy are weighing heavily on the market. People have been saying this for months like why is Bitcoin going down? Why is it being underperforming? And people say, "Oh, well, you there's there's the sailor risk, but the market was not reflecting that." And, you know, it's kind of like, you know, you look at at the bonds market, the bond market to determine, you know, sort of confidence in in in government and and credence around government policy.

Um, this feels like, you know, uh the the sort of uh tariff tantrum equivalent, but for for sailor, there was definitely um a dislocation here because we could have been bullish, the equities market, bullish all week. Uh the FOMC hawkishness, we'll talk about that. But what didn't seem to be too bad, crypto was going up. Everything was going up except for stretch. Stretch never recovered. And it seems to be that like it is actually kind of a focal point of the Bitcoin market.

And in therefore like usually we've seen assets like hyperlquid uh VVV the revenue generating assets which have been counteryclical to Bitcoin. This today they are cyclical to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is literally dragging everything down and it seems to be that like Bitcoin can't get bullish until this get this gets resolved.

Yeah. I uh you obviously sailor sold a couple Bitcoin um just a couple inoculate the market quote unquote and then obviously uh uh after the fact announced they bought you know several times more um you know Bitcoin. But

I think it's it seems like this is always going to be a looming issue. It's a little bit like a, you know, token like a longdated token vest of um this is just always going to be this thing dangling over your head. Um, and so he needs to find a long-term plan for it. I think people discussed, hey, maybe just selling a larger amount of Bitcoin now so you have, you know, a year plus worth of of cash to be able to pay dividends.

Um, but if anything, I think we're also just an interesting instrument to trade, right? We're coming up towards the end of the month when the first dividend, you know, should be should be coming out. Uh, funding has been going crazy. DSL lighter has a stretch per and so it's I was like for a while it was like 900% annualized so some people are also doing you know this cash and curry trade they're going to hold the stretch short the pers maybe try to collect the interest it's just like all sorts of a super interesting environment but I feel like we're going to get this resolved one way or another you know closer to the end of the month and I I don't quite know how because I I do find I'm not a particular big you strategy or sailor bull but he does have a ability to uh you know pull a rabbit out of a hat on demand so may be able to do something

yeah the the the kind of the fundamental quandry that I see with Stretch is that the stated intention of Stretch is that if it trades below par, trades below 100, he'll simply just increase the interest rates to attract more buyers and it'll just he'll just pay more year to attract more cap, you know, you know, slap your hands together. So simple. But but the problem with that is that if you do that then you run out of money faster and there's like a confidence issue that you impose upon your asset.

If you if you like jack up your interest rates from like 11% which is already high like how many other yield sources are you beating with 11% like most of them and so you go up to 13 14% in order to attract more buyers of the stretch asset like well you're just going to run out of your cash balance faster which is going to reduce the confidence and so it doesn't really seem

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