比特币实现价格分析：历史底部信号

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the realized price. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on IntoTheCryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com where you can of course get access to these indicators that we're talking about. In this video, we're going to be discussing the realized price for Bitcoin.

Now, I understand that some of these on-chain metrics are not always the easiest to understand, but to break this one down, the realized price is essentially just equivalent to the realized cap, right? Like the realized um cap of Bitcoin divided by the circulating supply. Now, you might say, "Well, okay, you get this you understand the circulating supply, but what is the realized cap?" The realized cap is is basically looking at the aggregate of what Bitcoin was trading at when those coins were acquired.

That's all it is. So, fairly straightforward. You just take the realized cap divided by the circulating supply and you get the realized price. Why do we care about the realized price? The realized price is this green line. And what you'll notice is that throughout all these bear markets, Bitcoin has historically gone below the realized price before the market cycle bottom was in. Okay? You can see that it did that in 2011.

Um it it did it in 2014, 2015. It also did it in 20 2018. It even did it in 2020. Um and and you know, Bitcoin has fallen a lot, but it hasn't quite gotten below the realized price. So, this is just one metric. There's other metrics as well. Obviously, there's the balanced price, which is even lower than the realized price, but historically, Bitcoin has gone below the realized price in bear markets. And right now, the realized price is around 53 to 54k.

Now, I understand that if Bitcoin were to go to those levels, it would break some models. But as I've said previously, all models are wrong, some are useful. So, we'll see if it goes there, but again, the realized price is around 53 to 54k. Historically, we go below the realized price near the end of bear markets. And now that we're getting into, you know, we're we're in June, we're getting close to that second half of the midterm year, we have to be aware that this is a a possible outcome.

And one of the things we can do is we can look at the price of Bitcoin divided by the realized price, and you can see this line here is at one, so when the green line goes below that level, Bitcoin is below the realized price. We're not quite below it just yet, right? We're not quite below it just yet. And this would also align with the idea that, you know, when the supply of Bitcoin in profit and loss crosses, it means the low is near, but historically the low occurs within about 1 to 4 months.

So, the cadence of this chart also looks somewhat promising. And and if we do see Bitcoin go below the realized price, historically, we don't spend that much time down there, right? Like it's not like we we spend that much time below the realized price. So, we'll see if this plays out like it always has, but you can kind of see what I'm looking at, and I know some people get frustrated when I talk about this stuff cuz everyone just wants the market to bottom and start heading higher, but remember, I'm just presenting the data as I see it.

I don't control what the data is, and I just think it's my responsibility to to tell you guys uh and and to present it to you whether, you know, whether you like it or not. Now again, I there's a lot of models that would say that 60k is the low, and and that we won't go lower, but you know, those are are certainly more optimistic models. One of the things that is making this bear market so hard is that a lot of the models kind of disagree.

Like some things say the low is in, and then there's others that say it's not. And the terminal price is one that would in fact argue that it is in fact not in. And remember, if Bitcoin does bottom out later this year, like it normally does in mid-term years, all this stuff could align and it could look very similar to the end of all prior mid-term years. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on IntoTheCryptoverse Premium at IntoTheCryptoverse.com.

Thank you guys for tuning in and I'll see you next time. All right.