比特币链上风险指标：识别市场周期底部

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the onchain risk metric and how it can be useful for accumulating Bitcoin and also recognizing where we're near euphoric tops. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

Let's go ahead and jump in. So, I put out a chart yesterday, a video yesterday. We've talked about it a number of times over the years, and the video was called Bitcoin, a beautiful chart. And the video discusses this chart, the Bitcoin percentage of supply in profit and loss. And the beautiful thing about this chart is I don't need to know the news. I don't need to know any of that stuff. All I want to know is this cadence that Bitcoin has and how historically when the Bitcoin percentage of supply in profit and loss when it crosses historically the market bottoms within about 1 to four months historically within about 1 to four months if you look back at every every bare market you can go look I went through it yesterday I don't want to I don't want to waste your time but it It occurs about every 1 to about 1 to 4 months after they cross within within about that time frame.

And you can see that they have crossed now. And in 2018 when they crossed or yeah in 2018 or maybe it was actually 2022 they actually crossed um in in June and then they uncrossed and then they crossed again later in the year. So, but historically within about 1 to four months of crossing, Bitcoin finds the low for the market cycle, the market cycle bottom, if you will, from which point we would measure the next cycle's returns from that point.

Now, this is a great chart, but one of the cool things about this these sorts of charts is that you can you can normalize them, right, between zero and one and look at prior performance and get a risk metric. So it's essentially just kind of taking this and normalizing it between 0 and one. And when you do that, you get a chart that looks like this. So this is the risk metric for the percentage of Bitcoin in supply and loss.

Now in this case, it's no different qualitatively than this chart. No different qualitatively. What's different? What's really different because you can see how similar these charts are. What's really different is other onchain risk metrics. Now, again, it's not a perfect match to this chart, right? It's not a perfect match, but it is relatively close when you normalize prior data between zero and one. So, what I wanted to do is talk about other onchain indicators because this is a beautiful chart.

Make no mistake about it. And I I had some people say, "Well, the thumbnail was a different color than than the website." Well, you can actually uh change this to light mode. Unfortunately, by by doing that, I probably blinded a few people, but we'll switch it back. What's really cool for Bitcoin is there's a lot of onchain indicators. The percentage of supply and profit and loss is just but one onchain indicator that we can use.

And to go through some of the other ones, we would be talking about the MVRV Zcore which looks like this. the risk metric, the appeal multiple, the MVRV score, the minor cap to thermal cap ratio, transaction fees, the market cap to thermal cap ratio, the terminal price, the R huddle ratio, and of course supply and profit and loss. Now, you might look at some of these and say, "Well, we didn't actually go all the way to the top."

That's a great observation. This metric does not promise that you will go all the way to the top in every bull market. Just like in 2019, this metric did not go all the way to the top. And as I've said previously, the current bull market or sorry the current the the last bull market we had for Bitcoin and the subsequent bare market in terms of the business cycle most closely align with what happened in 2019 and 2021 where we had a Bitcoin rally and during that Bitcoin rally Bitcoin Bitcoin dominance went up and then Bitcoin topped two months before quantitative tightening ended both in 2019 and 2025 and there was also no rotation to altcoins and oh by the We also had three rate cuts in 2020 or in 2019 just like we had three rate cuts in 2025.

So there's a ton of similarities between them. And I know some people say, "Well, it's different." But everything's been different, right? I mean, there's been a lot of differences this cycle. And so we have to look when was the last time the MBRVZ score topped out, you know, around 0.5 to 6 risk and it was in the 2019 bull market. And as I said previously, you know, if you look at Bitcoin USD, the only time, right, the only time that it had this like apathetic top was in 2019.

And furthermore, in that 2019 top, it was it was there was no rotation into altcoins, right? No rotation into altcoins. And that's an important distinction, right? That's an important distinction. So, let me load this back up to see if I can I can get uh total assets by the Federal Reserve added onto this chart so you guys can see what I'm talking about. And I think a lot of you guys know uh this at this point, but for the people that are new, you can see how Bitcoin in 2019 topped right before QT ended just like in 2025.

Bitcoin topped um right before right around the time right before QT ended by about two months or so, right? Bitcoin topped and then two months later, quantitative tightening came to an end. there was no rotation into altcoins and so I think what Bitcoin is doing right now is similar to the postappathetic digest digestion phase in 2019. So, what's really interesting though is when you take all of these onchain risk metrics, right?

If you turn them all on, what I like about it is when you look at the total onchain risk, it shows you where we are, right? And when you include it, when you include everything on here, the current onchain risk is.18.1 98. You can see that historically Bitcoin doesn't spend very much of its time where the onchain risk is below 0.2. It does happen and historically it happens in midterm years which is exactly where we are right now.

Sometimes it'll happen in like sort of late midterm years going into the early part of the pre-election year, the pre-h having year but that is the most common time it occurs is in midterm years. And you can see that this time has not been different. And so what I would be looking at with this indicator is to have it carve out a low. You see how every bare market this thing carves out a low that lasts for a few months.

Look for it to carve out a low before the end of the year and then ideally that then sets us up for the next bull market. Now, I think the onchain risk is a great provides great insight into what's going on because I can look at this chart and I just simply don't need to know what the news is. I don't need to know about what geopolitical conflicts are happening. I don't need to know, you know, what the inflation rate is or or where initial claims are or what the president said about Bitcoin last Tuesday.

All I want to know as more of like a a macro investor is the time historically to accumulate Bitcoin is as the onchain risk carves out these lows. And you can see it looks like that's what Bitcoin is headed to do. Like it looks like that is what we're kind of in the process of beginning right now. And so in sort of confluence with my other video that I published about a week ago where I said that Bitcoin is now in the third and final stage of the bare market, I think that this chart supports that.

I think this clearly shows that we are likely in the third and final stage of the bare market and that we should expect Bitcoin probably to bottom out uh this year. Right? I think it'll happen this year. Obviously, I've mentioned October a number of times, and I think that's the most likely month, but of course, it could happen at any moment

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