Benjamin Cowen：黄金2026年下半年展望

Hey everyone, and thanks for dropping back into the heavy metal verse. Today, we're going to talk about gold, and we're going to discuss the path through the rest of the year. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, gold is currently trading around $4,000 an ounce, and it's actually it's actually had a sizable correction after this large move up we had going into January 2026.

Now, if you followed my views on gold uh for the last year or so, we talked about a parabolic rally, but then a correction in the first half of 2026. Considering that it's now June, I thought it was timely to maybe make a video update now since the first half of 2026 is almost over. Predicting where the low is going to occur is very difficult. Um you know, I I I talked about it with with Bitcoin. We we sort of speculated about it with with things, but no one truly knows.

But, we can look at history to get an idea of of what might happen. And so, my guess is that gold will likely find a low, probably between the June to October time frame, but on average in midterm years, gold tends to bottom in June or July. On average. So, let's go through some of the examples and then talk about, you know, why the low will likely occur in that time frame. So, the first thing we could do is look at seasonality.

And as I've said before, seasonality only works about 70% of the time. So, if you run with it, it'll likely work more often than not, but about 30% of the time, you would probably see it do something else. So, seasonality is certainly not everything. But, if you look at the year-to-date ROI of gold in 2026 and compare it to the average of prior midterm years, you get a chart that looks like this. If you overlay one standard deviation to that average, you can see we exceeded the returns in the beginning of the year.

And now, the losses have exceeded the typical losses that we get going into the summer. Currently, it is day 162 of the year, and on average, gold bottoms on day 187. So, on average, in midterm years, gold tends to find a low in the summer. It can extend longer, but I would start really looking for lows to form, you know, especially the later we get in June, and especially going into like July, August, September, October time frame, and likely gearing up for another move up going into sort of the 2027, 2028 time frame.

One of the reasons why I mean, it's so hard to nail down lows. Let's actually look at at a lot of the midterm years, rather than rather than just say, "Oh, this is what happens on average." Let's actually look at at what most of them have actually done. So, we're going to remove the average. Now, look at 2026 compared to 2022. You'll notice that they don't look that dissimilar, right? What you'll see is that gold had a move early in the year, and then it kind of bled out, um and ultimately, it found a low around the time that the stock market found a low.

So, that's the reason why I feel like I have to be open As much as I'd like gold to bottom sooner, and I think it could, I have to be open-minded to a low occurring a little bit later if gold is to follow what I would think would be a correction by stocks going into like late Q3, early Q4. If you look at 2018, you can see that again, we had sort of an initial move early in the year, and then we just kind of bled out into day 227, which would only be a couple of months from now before the market started to pick back up.

If you compare this to 2014, you can see we ended up getting the low later in the year. If you look at 2010, there was a low that formed in the summer. It was in a It was in a bull market, and we continued higher. And if we go look at 2006, which I think there's plenty of There are some similarities. There was a low formed, you know, around the summer months, and then we sort of trended up after that. And then going into 2007, gold continued to go up.

So, my guess is that gold will likely find a low between the June to October timeframe. The reason I say that is because on average, gold tends to bottom in June or July in mid-term years. Uh but if stocks get a correction, it could drag gold down with it. Be that as it may, there are some examples in the past where gold starts to go up even during that stock market correction, which is why it could bottom earlier in the summer.

Let's go through a few examples, all right? Now, let's go through one of the more egregious ones because one of the things that we've talked about a lot is how in the last two major gold bull markets, they were interrupted, both of them, they were interrupted by a recession in the United States. Now, in the current gold bull market, we don't know We haven't had a recession in the United States. So, I don't even know if current correction that you're seeing is actually one that lines up with a recession or not.

The labor market as it stands right now is still holding up relatively okay. So, I can't look at that and be like, "Oh, well, this is a recession necessarily." because it might not be. You might say, "Well, this is a pretty steep correction by gold." And have we had corrections like that before and not have a recession in the United States? Well, if you look at 2008, gold dropped about 33% in the larger bull market before going on to new all-time highs.

If you look at 1974, gold dropped about 25% before going to new all-time highs later that year. What is the current drawdown by gold? It's about 28%. Okay? But, if you look at what gold did in 2006, it had a correction of about 25%. If you look at what gold did in 1973, it had about a 28% drop. Now, again, these were fairly normal corrections for gold to have in route to a larger speculative blow-off top that then lasted a really, really long time.

So, I'm not here to say that it it can't go lower. What I'm here to say is that, look, there's pretty there's pretty obviously large corrections in gold that have happened in bull markets and the top still was not in. Now, you might retort and say, "Well, what about the monthly RSI, right? That one was got That got pretty egregiously overbought. And so, could we really expect gold to recover after a monthly RSI of 95?"

But, the last time the monthly RSI was around 95 was actually in 1973 when gold had a correction about a 28% correction, which is where it is right now, and then we still rallied up to all-time highs. What I would argue with the RSI is you want to look for divergences, like a high on the RSI and then a lower high a few years later, and then the price puts in a high while and then a higher high. So, you you get like a negative um this bearish divergence that essentially occurs.

But, we've only had the initial high. Right? And even last business cycle for gold, you can see the high for the monthly RSI occurred right before this drop in 2008, but we went higher, gold went higher, and printed a lower high on the monthly RSI. So, for me, I remain still bullish on gold. And having a correction in the first half of 2026 is what we said would likely happen. All right? We said this is a likely outcome.

And if you look at what happened in the last midterm year, you can see that gold also had had some sizable corrections in the last midterm year. If you look at 2022, you can see that gold corrected from March into you know, into like October, and it had about a 22% drop. So, what I'm saying is this. I'm saying you have your first leg of the bull market and then a midterm year consolidation correction. And then you have your second leg of the bull market, and then your midterm year consolidation correction, which will then eventually lead sort of to the third and likely final leg of the bull market going into the end of the decade.

That is how I think this is going to play out for gold. You should be aware that in bull markets, you will have corr

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