Benjamin Cowen 详解比特币动态定投策略

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing something I've talked about six years ago which is dynamic DCA and it is what I use to navigate buying and selling Bitcoin. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

Let's go ahead and jump in. So, there's two separate things that we have to make sure that everyone understands. There is a difference between being right and making money. That might sound crazy, but there is a huge difference between the two. And the longer you are in the markets, the more you will realize that for yourself. Right now, there's always a lot of discussion as to where Bitcoin will bottom out in terms of price.

But at the end of the day, in a few years, none of that's really going to matter. The point is is who took action and who did not, not who got it right. And I want to be clear that one of the biggest mistakes that investors make is they spend a lot of time overanalyzing stuff and trying to time the exact bottom when most of the money is not made trying to time the exact bottom. The majority of money of that is made is usually just in the middle of trends when you just trade the trend that you have in front of you.

So what I want to do in this video is provide an update to a video that I put out six years ago. Six years ago, we actually had very similar market conditions to what we have today. I know that might sound crazy, but it is. I have compared this post apathetic top digestion phase to 2019 a number of times and I stand by that assessment because Bitcoin topped on apathy and not euphoria. There was no rotation into altcoins.

Bitcoin topped two months before quantitative tightening. In both cases, the Fed cut interest rates three times in 2019 just like they did in 2025. It's all very similar. So, because of that, let's revisit what was a successful strategy back then, right? And it starts with this risk metric. This risk metric was developed five or six years ago. I think six years ago. the earliest video I could find on it without digging too hard.

I mean there might be one slightly before this one. It was called Bitcoin risk analysis using machine learning. I put this one out six years ago. As you can see the time stamp on the video was six years ago and I went through the strategy of how I bought Bitcoin, right? I went through that strategy and I went through the strategy of how I sold Bitcoin. I don't do it exactly how I how I said it back then now. Uh but I still operate in a very similar fashion.

So let's talk about this chart. Before we talk about the chart, let me just get you guys to understand what we're looking at. This chart right here is the same thing as the one you see way back over here. It's the same exact thing. All right. When you look at this chart, you'll notice that there's the blue line, which is the price of Bitcoin, and the orange line, which is the risk. And the risk in this case is developed based on the Bitcoin price alone accounting for diminishing returns from one cycle to another.

The point is is that there is no guarantee that every rally is a euphoric one. We saw that in 2019. We also saw that in 2025. So what I said back then was because we can't know that every rally is a euphoric one. One thing that you could do is when you get above the 0.5 risk level between say 0.5 and 6 risk what I said I did back then was I would sell why. What does that mean? What does it mean why? Well, what I said what I said was that if you take your entire Bitcoin position and divide it into 15s, what I said was that I would sell 115th between.5 and 6, two 15s between 6 and 7, 31 15 between 7 and 08, 4 between 08 and 0.9, and 51 15 or 1/3 of my Bitcoin between 0.9 9 and1 risk.

That was the idea. And I bought Bitcoin in the opposite fashion. Let's say I wanted to DCA in a certain amount of US dollars into Bitcoin each month. Okay? Let's say it was $100. Let's say I want to put $100 into Bitcoin every week, but I want to increase that if times get tough in terms of the market, right? like if if markets go down, I want to increase that if possible. So what I talked about was that if Bitcoin goes to between 04 to.5 risk, I would buy say $100 worth of Bitcoin that time that I DCA maybe.

So that month, $100 worth of Bitcoin. And if we went down to.3 to point4 risk and it came down for me to buy and it came time for me to buy Bitcoin again, I would then buy $200 worth of Bitcoin. And then when it went down to 0 2 to.3, I would buy 300. And if it went down to 0.1 to 0, I'd buy $400 worth. And if it went all the way down, that's where I would I would put in $500. The hard part about it is it requires a lot of discipline and a lot of patience because a lot of people just want to throw everything they have at the market and usually they want to do that at the end of post having years.

But the reality is that if you just started DCAing when the markets got lower, then you could make a decent amount of money. At least that's what happened back then. It didn't matter if you timed it perfectly. As long as you DCAD for a year or two, you could then enjoy the spoils of the bull market. That was the argument I made back then. and and I I spent a lot of time convincing people why it didn't matter timing the bottom.

I then talked about the video again, this idea with another video that was also put out six years ago, risk management with buying and selling and talking about how one of the most one of the easiest strategies was just buying Bitcoin anytime it goes below 0.2 risk, dcaing Bitcoin anytime it goes below 0.2 to risk and stop over complicating it. All right. So these charts that you see here are what we essentially have today.

Right? So back then we were sort of playing around with different different things. Uh but the model you know sort of the model that we have um looks like this. Okay. And or sorry this is yeah this is the one right now. The Bitcoin risk is according to that model that we published you know according to this model right here that was published back in you know 2019 2020 time frame the current risk is 0 296 that's where the current risk is so if you wanted to let's say DCA Bitcoin and in these days I'm more riskaverse I don't I don't DCA Bitcoin below 0.5 risk uh so what I did right.

What I did was uh two cycles ago when I made that video I DCA below 0.5 and then last cycle I DCA below point4 and then this cycle I think it makes the most amount of sense for me to DCA below.3. Okay. And we're we're just below uh.3 risk right now. Right. We're at 0 296. And with things like the supply the the supply of profit and loss for Bitcoin crossing, we must be aware that the market cycle bottom historically comes within the next 1 to four months, right?

It is not my objective to time the bottom. The post I put out talking about that stuff is more of an academic exercise because there's a difference between being right and making money. There is. And that is a lesson you will learn if you're in the markets long enough. There is a difference between being right and making money. And so my argument is this. For me, let's say as an example that I want to put in X amount of month, but in this case, I'm splitting it up into six.

So like I would put in let's say my weekly DCA or let's call it my monthly DCA is $100, right? All right, let's say I put $100 into the market in June because we're between 02 and.3 and this cycle I want to DCA below.3 risk. Okay, so let's say I put $100 in. And next month, let's say Bitcoin is still between.3 and point4 risk. I'd put $100 in again. But let's say that come September, we drop down to between 0.1 and 2 risk. then I would put in $200.

And if we go all the way down to the lows 0 to 0.1, then I would put in $300 that month. So that by doing th

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