比特币时间型投降：历史周期对比与当前阶段分析

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing time-based capitulation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. The sale is ending soon. Let's go ahead and jump in. Bitcoin's currently trading at around $63,000.

I'm recording this video on June 11th. It'll probably not go live for a few days cuz I'm going to be traveling, but just for reference, that's where we are right now. Price-based capitulation is one thing. Time-based capitulation is another. And the argument that I have made this year is that time-based capitulation is actually more important than price-based capitulation. Be that as it may, if you were to get some type of price-based capitulation where all the on-chain indicators fully reset, then I think it would make sense to defer to price-based capitulation.

But unless that happens, time-based capitulation, I think makes a lot more sense to follow. What I mean by that is that in a lot of these prior bear markets, Bitcoin was going down for approximately 1 year, okay? You have December of 2017 to December 2018. You have November 2022 to or sorry, November 2021 to November 20 22. So, the point is that the last two midterm year bear markets lasted approximately 1 year. Now, the bear market before that, it was November 2013 to January 2014.

So, in this case, it lasted a little more than a year. However, I would point out that the high that occurred was like at the very end of November, like almost like early December, and then the low was pretty early on in January. So, if you would actually take sort of like a a date range from the high, let's see when the high was. So, it would have been the week of November 25th to the low, it was about 59 weeks. And if you look at, say, December 2017 to December 2018, it was about, you know, 53 weeks, right?

And then the next one was about I think it went all the way over there, it's about 54 weeks. We're currently about week 35. So, I'm not saying that it can't bottom sooner than the end of the year. I'm just saying that history shows us that the bear markets take about 50 to 60 weeks to play out when the bear market's happened. Now, we actually have an example though where a bear market played out in a shorter time frame.

And that bear market was in fact the 2019 into 2020 bear market, which I have in fact talked about a lot, and I've made this comparison to this bull market followed by the bear to this one over here. Now, what we'll never know is what would have happened to Bitcoin back in 2020 had we not had the pandemic? What would happen? Would it have gone like this? Like maybe it would have consolidated more, eventually came down here.

And then gone up? We don't know. Because what happened is we got a price based capitulation. Where it essentially reset all of the on-chain indicators. Let me give you an example. If you were to look at things like the realized price and the terminal price, you can see that Bitcoin falls below those at the end of every bear market. Now in 2019-2020, it was trending down after that non-euphoric top, the post-apathetic top digestion phase.

And you could have argued that maybe we would have had time-based capitulation. But instead, we had price-based capitulation where it fully reset the on-chain indicators. In fact, the Bitcoin supply in profit or loss also crossed in 2020. So, you can have an idea or a thesis on how long something will take to play out. But if you were to get a price-based capitulation, then I think it makes sense to pivot sooner. If you were to compare the current bear market to the one in 2019-2020, you can see what I'm saying.

If Bitcoin were to capitulate in June, the same way that it did in March of 2020, then it wouldn't make sense in my opinion to stay bearish until October. It just wouldn't. But if we just continue to put in slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, which is kind of what we've been doing for this year, and if you look at that had 2026 and compare that to the average of prior midterm years and overlay one standard deviation over that average, you can see that right now Bitcoin is uh down about as much as it normally is at this point in midterm years.

On average. So, it's hard to know which way we're going to go. Do we get a big capitulation that allows all the on-chain indicators to reset and justifies not having to wait until October? There is an example of that in history, even with the S&P 500. If you look in 1960s, I think it was uh from memory 1962, you can see there was a big capitulation by the stock market in the in the summer, into July or yeah, June, and then the October low was a higher low.

So, I would argue there's a chance that you'll have a low around that time frame in Q4, and it'll probably be a lower low, but if Bitcoin were to get a big drop sooner, then you could justify pivoting sooner. I put out a video recently talking about the risk metric, right? And how I use it to navigate crypto. But one of the things I was very adamant about this cycle was that we likely would not go to the euphoric stages because we were seeing retail leave crypto rather than come to crypto.

And so, when I was looking at it last year, I'm like, "Look, this to me it looks like a a larger version of what happened in the 2019 bear market." And because of that, instead of waiting for Bitcoin to go all the way up to the higher risk bands, I used time-based analysis rather than price-based. So, it was more like, "Hey, we just ran out of time to go to these euphoric levels." In 2019, we did not run out of time because the four-year cycle like that that post that apathetic top occurred in the middle of the four-year cycle.

But in this cycle, the apathetic top occurred at the end of the four-year cycle. So the reason I became very bearish on Bitcoin late last year, it was not because the euphoric rallies happened. It was not because all the indicators were going off. In fact, if you were to go back and look at the the terminal price chart that has the realized price and balance price, you'll see that Bitcoin did not go above the terminal price, which is where it goes during euphoric rallies.

It only went part of the way up there like 2019. So my best guess as to what is happening right now, and I know this has come uh you know, a lot of people have not liked this view, but I have to be honest like I feel like at this point it is the only view that has sort of stood the test of time, one of the only views. I think there's a few other people out there that have had similar types of views based on other things, but it is one of the only views that has stood the test of time that this was a apathetic top, no rotation into altcoins, Bitcoin topped 2 months before QT ended like 2019, and in 2025, the Fed cut rates three times in 2019, the Fed cut rates three times in 2025.

It just happens to be that the post apathetic top digestion phase happens to line up with the mid-term year bear market. And so you can look at a chart like this, the comparison of 2019, and say, all right, maybe the bear market will only last 9 months. And you could be right, right? But my guess as what's going to happen is Bitcoin will find a low in June, rally in July, and then people are going to be saying, well, it doesn't need to go for a full year because we didn't have a euphoric rally.

That that is kind of what I see being the bix, the the next big debate. The problem is that when it happened in 2020, it was price-based capitulation. So, I would be in that camp if Bitcoin had price-based capitulation. If all the on-chain indicators reset, then I don't think it would make sense to stay bearish into Q4. But, I defer to time-based capitulation until that happens. One thing that I I've sort of talked about a little bit in prior bear m

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