SpaceX IPO 后市分析：历史模式暗示回调机会

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the equity verse. Today we're going to talk about the launch of the SpaceX IPO. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on ITC Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, SpaceX had their IPO last week. My apologies for not making a video on this last week, but I was traveling at the time. I did put out a tweet on it and essentially what I said was expect to see the price surge after launch and oftentimes a surge in price after the IPO can last you know between one day to a few weeks. You'll likely see it sort of fall back in some going into the second half of the year and from there I could see it beginning a more durable journey. So we don't have it's not like we have a ton of examples of companies that that Elon Musk has launched in IPOs but there are some right and there's more than you know than most people right because most people have zero but I will say this there's a lot of important things with investing and and you know some of it is seasonality some of it is is just remembering like buying and holding for the long term but what I will say is that a mistake that a lot of people make or a lot a mistake that a lot of companies make is they they hire people that are not really fit to lead the company. And there are a lot of great companies or a lot of great products that companies have, but they ultimately fail because they don't actually have good leadership in place. But Elon Musk has already proven himself many many times that he can run a company. And if you've followed me since 2019, one of the things I've frequently said is I like to bet on people. You know, I mean, we can talk about other stuff, but it means a lot if a company just has the right person in charge. Because if if a person establishes himself as being able to run a successful company multiple times, then why would I assume that this is the one that they're going to suddenly not know how to how to run it?

A lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against Elon Musk. A lot of people have made a lot of money betting on Elon Musk to run these companies. Well, now if you followed this channel for a long time, you know, I've been pretty much bullish on Tesla for a long time. I first got bullish on Tesla, you know, I I think it was in the early 2010s, really like 2013 time frame is when I really started to get bullish on Tesla. And I remember back then, you know, and I I didn't have a YouTube channel at the time, but I remember back then being very confused about about the markets and and not really fully understanding and being like, "All right, well, why is Tesla not going anywhere from 2011 to 2013?

Why did it not really move anywhere throughout, you know, from 2014 to 2019? And this stuff happens, right? Like you you get this massive repricing higher and then price goes sideways for a long time. But one of the things that I think we should maybe take note of and I will preface this by saying, look, this is one example. We're going to look at some other examples. I understand that one example here by Elon Musk, an IPO, isn't enough to sort of definitively know what the trend's going to be, but let's just look what did this what did this the IPO h do for Tesla. Like what happened at the IPO?

What happened for Tesla at the IPO is what happens for a lot of companies at the IPO. A lot of successful companies. What happens for a lot of successful companies at the IPO?

there's a massive launch in price and then it comes back down and then sort of a a more durable longer term move happens. That's what usually happens. You can see it happened for Tesla. Look at Microsoft after Microsoft launched. It rallied up 40% came back down. The rest is history. Apple when it launched, it had a very brief rally, came back down, the rest is history. When I look at SpaceX, obviously there's a lot of demand for it. I'm long-term bullish on SpaceX. I do not think it makes sense to bet against Elon Musk. Short-term moves are hard to predict, right?

Like, you know, who knows exactly where the price is going to go in the short term. But I will say this, even if SpaceX were to go back down to the lows or below it, like say Tesla did and like Microsoft did and like Apple did, it wouldn't mean it's un unsuccessful. There are a lot of these companies in the early days that can have large corrections in the stock price, but ultimately you zoom out years and years later and you realize those didn't really matter. That's what the Apple chart looks like, right?

You look at Microsoft, you'll see something similar. You had a a pretty big drop by Microsoft after the IPO sort of hype. It dropped about, you know, 30% and then the rest is history. Let's look at Tesla because there's actually a lot of similarities between the launch of Tesla and the launch of SpaceX. I mean, obviously the market caps are different, but let's look at this. When did SpaceX launch?

June of 2026. So SpaceX launched in June of 2026. When did Tesla launch? June 2010. See this June of 2010. What does that have in common so far? So they both have Elon Musk, right?

So they both have Elon Musk. They both launched in June of a midterm year, right? They both launched in June of a midterm year, just this is 16 years later. And when it launched, the price went up a lot from the starting price. And obviously, it wicked lower, but from the starting price when when we had the Tesla IPO, the price went up about 60%. Okay. So, from the launch of of Tesla, 60% after IPO, what is SpaceX up from that open?

It's currently gone up about 50%. Okay. Now, it could go higher, right? I'm not here to say it can't, but so far it's about 50%. after the IPO. Now, I wonder if we're going to see a very similar outcome because remember what a lot what happens a lot of times with successful IPOs is they surge, they then pull back and then the more durable run happens. That's the way it goes. And if it pulls back, that doesn't make it a bad company, right?

I mean, when Tesla launched, it had after the 60% surge, it then dropped From there, it dropped like 51%. And you know what's crazy? It did that all in one month. Like Tesla went up 60% from the open and then dropped 50% all within about a month and then that was the low. And after that low, Tesla never went below that price ever again. Ever again. It only ever went up from there. Again, when Microsoft launched, it surged. It dropped. It never went below that price after that drop. You see that?

And that drop also happened to be in July, right? It happened to be in July. I don't know if that was a um Well, that would have been a midterm year, right? 1986 or no?

So, what 2010, 2006, 2002, 98, 94, 90?So, yeah, it would have been a midterm year. And then from there the rest is history. So just keep that in mind you know keep that in mind. Perhaps perhaps if there is a pullback by Tesla into the second half of the year like there was you know after the SpaceX or after the Tesla la if there's a s sorry there's a pullback by SpaceX into the second half of the midterm year like there was for Tesla and like there was for Microsoft and sort of like Apple but I'm not really sure if it was a if it was a midterm year. I guess it was a midterm year where it found a low right in I guess it was July of 1982. So I'm just saying guys like I don't I'm not betting against Elon Musk. What I'm saying is I think there's going to be a good buying opportunity for SpaceX really really soon u after this sort of initial hype wears off. And that's the hard thing about IPOs is that there's a lot of people that have been holding on for a really long time. They want to sell. There's also a lot of demand from retail who haven't been able to buy. Okay, so they want to buy and what happens is retail buys and the price surges up, but then the selling pressure kind of continues from the peop