比特币社交风险指标持续下降，零售投资者缺席

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the social risk. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com where you can get access to the social risk metric. Let's go ahead and jump in. So the social risk for the cryptoverse continues to drop.

And you know, you could argue that the entire industry is sort of having one of these maturing moments where as a whole, the industry is realizing, hey, it can't just simply survive on hype and and sort of speculation forever. you actually have to have products that that deliver something that that people actually need. And you know, this past cycle we and I talked about this many times throughout the past cycle, we had so many memecoin scams and and you know, rugps and whatnot.

And for the most part, the industry, you know, in a lot of ways, we lost our way. And now we're sort of experiencing what we started to experience sort of after that 2019 top. What's interesting though is, you know, after this 2019 top, social risk is quite low. We came back down. But what ended up happening was we had a crisis that justified loser monetary policy which led to a lot of money printing which brought everyone right back.

The problem that crypto has right now is that we keep not having a reason or losser monetary policy. Stock market keeps going to new all-time highs and the AI trade has continued. And so because of that, rate hikes have actually started to get priced back in. Not only because of that, but also because of geopolitical conflict causing inflation expectations or inflation to head back up. But what we're experiencing now, we got a very small glimpse of in 2019.

Now, you might say, well, how does this really compare? Like, how how can we say it's the same? And as I've said previously, I know there's a lot of people that will pretend like this 2025 top and the 2019 top are nothing alike because in this time it was out of the end of a four-year cycle. Even though many of them wouldn't even agree that there was a four-year cycle, but it's at the end of one. and and also because it was at a new all-time high.

But if you can suspend disbelief for yet a moment, we can find plenty of similarities. And and some of those similarities include the fact that in 2019, just like in 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times. Okay? From back then it was from 2 and a half% to 1.75. This time it was 4 and a half to 3.75. So this is the same thing. Three rate cuts 75 basis points happened in 2019 happened in 2025. The other similarity the balance sheet of the Fed back then Bitcoin topped in June quantitative tightening ended in August. two months later in 2025.

Bitcoin topped in October. Quantitative tightening ended in December. Okay. So, from a monetary policy perspective, you would be hardressed to find another period that looked as much as this one. What I've said though is that the downturn, right, just happens to correspond to the mid the normal midterm year downturn. And it's fascinating how it how it plays out like that. So, when you think about it, not through the lens of like what we normally get at the end of a four-year cycle top where it's a euphoric rally where retail is here like in 2021 and in 2017, we instead had more of a 2019 style top where social interest never really came back.

Now, in this case, social interest is made up of a lot of different metrics. uh Google trend searches or Google trends for Bitcoin, uh the ranking of the Coinbase app, subscribers to YouTube channels, views to those crypto YouTube channels, and then followers to analyst exchanges and layer ones on Twitter, and Wikipedia page views. And when you look at all of them, here's the Coinbase app rankings risk, here's Google Trends, you have Wikipedia page views, YouTube subs, YouTube views, Twitter analysts, Twitter exchanges, Twitter layer 1's.

You get all that stuff. And what we can do is we can just simply combine them into a single risk metric uh that looks like this. And so the point of this is when social interest is low and trending down, Bitcoin dominance tends to trend up. Now don't lose sight of just what happened recently with Bitcoin dominance because yes, it has taken a hit, but guess what? It also took a hit after the 2019 top as well, right? it it it struggled for a while and then the next euphoric rally dominance went back up to the highs.

So when you zoom out though, you'll see that as social interest has remained low since 2021, right? If you look at the social social interest, you can see it's been trending down since 2021. And if you look at Bitcoin dominance, it's been trending up generally speaking since 2021. Now, recently it looks like it's stalled out a little bit, but as I've said previously, if you actually look at um you know at Bitcoin dominance excluding stable coins, so here it is.

Here's normal Bitcoin dominance including if you exclude them, you can see dominance continues to head higher. So, a lot of similarities and it's the reason why, you know, this sort of comparison really helps us to understand like why retail is absent. I think there's multiple reasons why why retail is absent. If you need a narrative, number one, people got tired of all the meme coin scams. They got tired of all the speculation in altcoins that never actually delivered anything.

From a monetary policy perspective, you had high interest rates and you had quantitative tightening and and people were worried more so about paying bills and and going to the grocery store and affording groceries than they were simply about buying the next rugpool in the cryptoverse. So, in some sense, like there's been this like identity problem with the crypto space to some degree. I think presidents launching memecoins sort of exposed the industry for what it had become.

That wasn't what it always was in my opinion, but it's what it became. It's what it became where people stopped pretending to build anything, right? They weren't even trying. You know, for a while people tried and then people pretended and then people stopped pretending to build anything at all and they were just like, "Oh, go buy this memecoin." So, there's an identity problem and we're going through a a prolonged downturn in social interest.

The bare market still is around the same length so far, right? But a prolonged downturn in social interest and we've seen it before. This is just a larger version of what we saw during the last business cycle. And it just happens to be that this four-year cycle top occurred when just before quantitative tightening ended. Now, if you actually try to understand any of the things that go into this metric, one of those would be like subscribers to various YouTube channels.

I want you to get an idea like this is why altcoins continue to bleed out. Look at subscribers to YouTube channels. They're actually a lot of them are trending negative right now, right? They're actually negative. So, if you zoom in over here, you can see there's a lot of channels actually losing subscribers. The same channels, by the way, that we're netting on average, you know, over a week period, netting 40 to 50 to 60,000 new subscribers in a week.

On average, a lot of these channels are losing subscribers now. And so I hope people can sort of appreciate why we have spent so much time covering Bitcoin dominance and social interest and all that stuff over the last several years. I know it wasn't the cool thing to do and everyone wanted me to show a lot of random crap, but when you look back and you're like, you know what, there really wasn't a case for that in this past cycle.

It it made sense to just stick with Bitcoin in the past crypto market cycle. made sense, right? Retail never came back and normally durable moves in altcoins occu

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