中国或获ASML级EUV技术，全球AI芯片格局生变

I think many people still underestimate the full implications of China potentially gaining access to ASML-level EUV technology.

The supply chain currently works like this:

-ZEISS in Germany produces the ultra-precise optics and mirrors that are essential for ASML’s lithography systems.

-ASML is the only company in the world that can supply EUV lithography machines at industrial scale. These machines use extreme ultraviolet light to expose tiny chip structures onto silicon wafers, enabling the production of the most advanced semiconductors.

-The machines are shipped in many separate modules, then assembled and calibrated at fabs such as TSMC in Taiwan. This is where companies like NVIDIA, AMD and Apple have many of their most advanced chips manufactured.

The key point is this:

EUV is not just one machine. It is an entire industrial ecosystem. Optics, light sources, metrology, software, precision engineering, service teams and years of manufacturing know-how all have to work together. That is why there is no real alternative to ASML for leading-edge chip production at scale.

This is also why China has been denied access to EUV for years.

China has made enormous progress in AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing, especially through Huawei and SMIC. But it still lacks the mature industrial ecosystem needed to replicate ASML’s EUV capabilities at scale. Huawei’s Ascend chips are improving fast and are now estimated to reach roughly 60 to 80 percent of H100-class performance in some workloads, but they still lag behind NVIDIA in software, memory, reliability and large-scale training infrastructure.

That is why the latest reports are so important.

Reuters previously reported that a Chinese team, including former ASML engineers, had built an EUV prototype in Shenzhen. Now, the US government is reportedly concerned that China may have gained access to ASML’s most sensitive lithography technology. ASML denies that it has ever shipped EUV machines or EUV-specific components to China.

If China really has gained meaningful access to EUV know-how, this would put the West under serious pressure.

It would not mean China can suddenly mass-produce cutting-edge chips tomorrow. But it could shorten the timeline, accelerate Huawei’s chip roadmap and weaken one of the West’s most important technological chokepoints.

Many people are missing the significance of this.

EUV is not just about chipmaking. It is one of the deepest bottlenecks in the global AI race.

(Image: ASML EUV)